Biden Dropout Chances Rise to 68% After Covid Diagnosis

As a seasoned political analyst with years of experience following U.S. elections, I have witnessed many twists and turns throughout the campaign cycles. The recent developments surrounding President Joe Biden’s Covid-19 diagnosis and his statement about withdrawing if diagnosed with a medical condition have sent shockwaves through the market.

The probability that President Joe Biden will drop out of the U.S. presidential race reached 68% – just short of a record-breaking 70% – following his announcement of testing positive for COVID-19, based on wagers made on the cryptocurrency-driven prediction market platform Polymarket.

Yesterday on BET News, Biden shared that if he received a diagnosis for a medical issue, he would think about withdrawing from the campaign.

“Does anything specifically make you doubt or change your perspective when you observe it?” was a question put forth by BET’s Ed Gordon to Biden.

“During his speech, Biden expressed that if he were to be diagnosed with a medical condition by doctors, he would face it accordingly.”

After the debate between Joe Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump, the likelihood of Biden withdrawing from the presidential race significantly increased, rising from 36% to 70%. His subpar performance during the debate drew heavy criticism from both the public and media.

Biden acknowledged the poor performance, blaming jet lag and an intense travel schedule.

Following a PR effort promoting his bid for office and refutations from potential successors, the “Yes” faction in the withdrawal agreement experienced a decline of 34 percentage points, leaving them with a 36% support.

And then the cycle repeated.

George Clooney, a veteran Democrat supporter, made a public plea for Joe Biden to resign, momentarily increasing the “Yes” side of the contract to approximately 66%. However, this figure soon dipped back down to around 30%, experiencing brief fluctuations during the Republican National Convention and following Trump’s announcement of a popular running mate. The Covid-19 diagnosis added fuel to the fluctuation.

As an analyst, I’ve been closely monitoring the developments within the Democratic Party. Recently, there have been signs pointing towards a potential increase in the likelihood that Joe Biden may withdraw from the presidential race before the Democratic National Convention in August. Currently, this probability stands at approximately 59%.

According to Polymarket’s national election tracker, Trump holds a significant lead with approximately 64%, while Biden trails behind with around 12%. Harris, who is Biden’s vice presidential candidate, currently garners about 19% of the support.