As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The sideways trading since March has been a common occurrence in my career, but the resilience shown by BTC amid this period is noteworthy.
Since March, Bitcoin‘s price movement has been relatively flat, and historically, the third quarter, specifically September, tends to be a challenging time for Bitcoin investors due to its bearish tendencies.
As the month and quarter draw towards their conclusion, analysts have become optimistic once more, forecasting a much-anticipated surge or breakthrough in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
On September 18th, ‘RamenPanda’ analyst noted that for the past six months, the market has been moving laterally (or horizontally) without significant decline, with the price only slightly lower compared to its previous peak.
Bitcoin, which has reclaimed $60,000 again, is just 18% down from its all-time high.
The End is Nigh
The analyst added that all the time spent going sideways will end in a big rally.
If you doubt there will be another surprising rally ahead, you may be severely underestimating the situation. The time invested in sideways movement will undeniably yield an upward surge.
Look, we spent 6 months going sideways , yet price barely down from previous high
Corrections can take place in two forms : price depth or time
Time based correction, ops, I meant capitulation, is BULLISH AS FUCK
If you think we won’t have a world shocking of a rally next,…
— RamenPanda (@IamRamenPanda) September 17, 2024
Currently, economist Alex Krüger noted that the sentiment among cryptocurrency traders is as low as it has been since 2022. Simultaneously, he mentioned that Bitcoin’s current trading level is approximately where it was six months ago in a post published on X on Sept. 18.
On September 17th, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, commented, “You’ve navigated what was likely the most challenging period for Bitcoin,” highlighting the fact that the third quarter is typically a bearish time, while the fourth quarter tends to be bullish.
Analyst ‘Income Sharks’ echoed the sentiment, predicting a large upward movement in Q4.
Bitcoin – If the fourth quarter fails to live up to the anticipation it’s generated so far, I’m at a loss for words. The price is right smack in the middle of its range, and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) is precariously poised at the tip of the wedge.
— IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) September 17, 2024
Bitcoin reclaimed $61,000 in late trading on Sept. 17 but has fallen back to around $60,500 during the Wednesday morning Asian trading session. The asset has pulled out of September lows, posting a 6.7% gain over the past week.
Fed Rate Cut Looming
On September 18th, it’s anticipated that the Federal Reserve (the U.S central bank) will lower its interest rates. Yet, there’s disagreement among financial markets about just how big this rate reduction will be.
At present, the CME Fed Watch tool indicates a higher likelihood of a more substantial rate reduction, estimating a 65% chance of a 0.5 percentage point decrease, compared to a 35% probability for a milder 0.25 percentage point adjustment.
Analysts suggest that the larger rate cut would be better for high-risk assets such as crypto.
In a recent post on X, crypto influencer Lark Davis speculated that if historical patterns hold true, the next 6-12 months could be extremely volatile for Bitcoin, similar to the surge it experienced following the Fed’s last interest rate reduction.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow.
The last time the Fed cut rates, Bitcoin went parabolic
If history repeats itself, the next 6-12 months are going to be insane.
h/t/ @milkroaddaily
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) September 17, 2024
Nevertheless, the Kobeissi Letter warned, “No Fed meeting has ever been more unpredictable,” and further stated, “Regardless of the Fed’s decision tomorrow, half of the market will find themselves dissatisfied.
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2024-09-18 09:21