As an analyst with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I find Arthur Hayes’s perspective on the future of the crypto market following Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration insightful but cautiously optimistic.
According to Arthur Hayes, the current optimistic trends in the cryptocurrency market following Donald Trump’s recent election as President could potentially be temporary.
In a recent piece, Hayes predicts a potential sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market on January 20th, coinciding with Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th U.S. President. Here are his reasons for anticipating this market shift.
Hayes Expects a “Harrowing Dump”
As an analyst, I observed that during his recent election bid, Donald Trump garnered the support of a significant portion of the cryptocurrency community through his assurances regarding digital assets.
Among the proposals were: appointing a pro-cryptocurrency figure to replace Gary Gensler as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), abolishing taxes on Bitcoin, making the U.S. a global leader in cryptocurrency, and establishing a national reserve of Bitcoins. As it currently stands, the incoming Republican president has started implementing some of these pledges, with Paul Atkins being chosen as Gensler’s potential successor.
In my recent analysis titled “Trump Truth,” I’ve noted that the president-elect may not be able to implement swift policy changes upon inauguration, as cryptocurrency investors are anticipating. This is due to the fact that many U.S. elected officials typically kick off their campaigning by the end of 2025, ahead of the mid-term elections in November 2026. Consequently, my projection is that Trump might not initiate any policy changes until after a year has passed.
By January 20th, it’s becoming increasingly clear to crypto investors that we might be in for a significant market downturn, a term coined by Hayes as a “frightening selloff.
Here’s one way of paraphrasing the given text: “By January 20th, when Trump has at most a year left in office, the market is likely to grasp that this is his final chance to implement new policies. This understanding may trigger a sharp drop in the value of cryptocurrencies and other investments tied to Trump’s second term (Trump 2.0). [. . .] In essence, investors could experience significant regret for their purchases.
A Glimmer of Hope
Near the conclusion of his piece, Hayes emphasized that it’s plausible the bull market could persist even following Trump’s inauguration.
Regardless if the cryptocurrency market maintains its upward trajectory on the specified day, the co-founder of BitMEX made it clear that he intends to purchase both the drops (dips) and surges (rips) in Bitcoin and other digital currencies.
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2024-12-18 20:46