As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for deciphering market trends and a keen eye for on-chain data, I find myself confidently bullish about Bitcoin (BTC) at this juncture. The current valuation metrics suggest we are far from the overheated levels that usually signal the end of a bull cycle.
Even though Bitcoin reached over $99,000 last week, it’s not yet at the inflated prices that typically signal the end of a bullish market phase.
Based on data studied by CryptoQuant, it’s possible that the value of cryptocurrency could climb significantly higher than $100,000, potentially reaching up to $146,000. This prediction is based on a valuation method called realized price, which has previously indicated Bitcoin’s peak prices during market cycles, including the surge in April-May 2021.
No Signs of a Bitcoin Market Top Yet
The current value of Bitcoin suggests it’s still in an upward trend, or “bull market,” as various analytical metrics indicate. For instance, the CryptoQuant Profit and Loss index consistently stays above its long-term average. This implies that Bitcoin hasn’t reached overly heated levels just yet.
A different measure is the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, currently staying within the bull territory and climbing since early November, implying that the bullish trend is gaining strength. Similar to the Profit and Loss index, this one hasn’t reached the overheated bull phase yet, entering it only when Bitcoin touched its all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024.
Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin owned by newly invested individuals has not reached excessive proportions as of now. Historically, this situation has been a precursor to the previous two market peaks.
Currently, when I’m writing this, approximately half of the overall investment in Bitcoin is being held by these investors. Historically, during past market cycles, this percentage has risen significantly, reaching as high as 90% and 80%. After these peaks, Bitcoin has typically peaked and started to decline.
Retail Activity Remains Absent
Additionally, there’s often minimal intense shopping related to Bitcoin transactions within the network. Typically, retail activity on Bitcoin increases significantly, as investors tend to buy Bitcoin in large quantities, when Bitcoin is approaching a market peak and the bullish trend appears to be nearing its conclusion.
Currently, instead of increasing their holdings like they have in the past, retail investors are actually decreasing their Bitcoin stash, having sold approximately 41,000 Bitcoins over the last month. On the other hand, large-scale investors are on a buying spree, boosting their holdings by about 130,000 Bitcoins.
Currently, it seems that only one indicator suggests a temporary price drop in BTC, and that’s the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a well-known business intelligence firm which also happens to be the largest public holder of bitcoin. This week, MSTR experienced a significant decline, approximately 30%.
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2024-11-29 19:26