As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience observing and analyzing legal battles, I find myself intrigued by this ongoing saga between Ripple and the SEC. The potential for a resolution next year is indeed tantalizing, especially considering the recent political shift in the United States.


TL;DR

  • Lawyers suggest that the lawsuit might be resolved with a potential $125 million settlement if the SEC leadership changes.
  • One of them believes that a complete dismissal of the case is “unrealistic.”

A Possible Resolution Next Year?

The legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) originated in 2020, when the regulatory body claimed that the company and certain top officials had illegally raised over $1.3 billion through an offering of XRP without proper registration as a security.

Over the ensuing years, the case experienced a series of highs and lows. Ripple managed to secure some crucial (albeit incomplete) court victories. For instance, Judge Torres decided in the summer of 2023 that the firm’s XRP sales to retail investors on cryptocurrency exchanges did not breach securities laws. However, earlier this year, she determined that Ripple’s direct sales of its native token to institutional investors were a violation of federal securities laws, which led to the company being fined $125 million.

Initially, it appeared as though the company was prepared to cover the fine and thereby resolve the lawsuit. However, the SEC has delayed this by appealing the 2023 verdict, which could mean the final decision in the legal dispute might not come until several years from now.

Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election might signal a nearing conclusion, at least according to American lawyer Jeremy Hogan’s assumption.

On his first day in office, Trump is expected to dismiss Gary Gensler, the current Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, although his inauguration is scheduled for January 20th, Hogan believes Gensler may resign before this date.

It’s anticipated that the new head of the agency could dismiss all lawsuits against non-fraudulent cryptocurrencies that the regulator has brought over time. This recommendation is likely to be endorsed by the Commissioners, as the division will primarily consist of Republicans.

Based on Hogan’s perspective, this decision in the Ripple v. SEC case would lead to the payment of the previously determined $125 million settlement.

It would be quite inappropriate to compromise below what was previously decided by the Court! The ongoing cases involving Coinbase and others will likely be dismissed. This process might take a while, not until January, but possibly before summer. That’s my prediction, and I stand by it, concluded the lawyer.

An Additional Opinion

Fred Rispoli, another US attorney keeping up with the Ripple v. SEC court case, also voiced his thoughts. He suggested that the election of Donald Trump could be seen as positive news, as it may bring about drastic changes at the agency. According to him, these changes might take place in March or April of next year.

Contrary to Hogan, Rispoli believes dismissing the lawsuit is “unrealistic.” In his view, the $125 million penalty is the biggest win the SEC can gain. The attorney also predicted that the regulator’s new potential leadership will “recognize this whole case was idiotic and settle at that point.”

Rispoli mentioned that this could involve a decrease in the fine, as well as an understanding that Ripple’s current XRP sales have been set up in a manner such that they are not considered investment contracts,” or more casually, “Rispoli suggested that there may be a reduction in fines and recognition that Ripple’s ongoing XRP sales aren’t investment contracts.

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2024-11-08 13:08