Hollywood Bets on Thanksgiving Rebound: Will ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II’ and ‘Moana 2’ Revive the Sluggish Fall Box Office?

As a seasoned cinephile and box office analyst who has been following the movie industry for the past three decades, I can confidently say that the upcoming Thanksgiving movie lineup is shaping up to be nothing short of extraordinary. The anticipation surrounding “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” has reached a fever pitch reminiscent of the days of “Barbenheimer.

In the style of Wesley Snipes’ character Blade from this summer’s hit movie “Deadpool & Wolverine,” let me say: There’s only one “Barbenheimer.” There will never be another “Barbenheimer.

It’s unlikely that Hollywood will recreate the unique charm that made “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” a double feature sensation, creating an extraordinary box office competition between two contrasting films. However, theater owners are optimistic that “Wicked” and “Gladiator II”, set to release on Nov 22, might come close to replicating this phenomenon as the musical with its pink and green theme and the action sequel set in the Colosseum hit the screens.

Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s director of movie analytics, comments that the discussions about ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator’ are similar to those about ‘Barbenheimer.’ He explains they are mutually reinforcing each other.

As for whether “Glicked” will follow in the footsteps of “Barbenheimer,” there’s a growing expectation on upcoming Thanksgiving films, such as Disney’s “Moana 2” set to premiere on Nov 27, to perform well financially at the box office. The month of October has been disappointing with films like “Joker: Folie à Deux” underperforming and “Venom: The Last Dance” failing to meet expectations in comparison to previous symbiote saga entries. December brings “The Lion King” prequel “Mufasa” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” but this holiday season might be less spectacular due to the absence of a guaranteed blockbuster hit on the scale of “Avatar,” “Star Wars,” or “Spider-Man” that typically boosts the year-end earnings.

According to Robbins, the film industry considers ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II,’ and ‘Moana 2’ as a powerful trio that people are eagerly waiting to see in cinemas. It’s challenging to remember a Thanksgiving lineup with such promising potential.

As a cinephile myself, I’m excitedly anticipating the box office performance of these upcoming films! “Wicked” is expected to make a strong debut with earnings between $80 million and $85 million over the weekend. “Gladiator II” also has high expectations, aiming for somewhere in the range of $50 million to $60 million from Friday through Sunday. Lastly, I’m eagerly waiting for “Moana 2,” which is projected to bring in more than $100 million during its first five days!

Movie theater owners are hoping that audiences will consume more movies this year to help them recover from a disappointing season at the box office. In comparison to 2023, domestic box office earnings have dropped by over 11%, and they’re down almost 27% compared to 2019. According to Comscore, this was the case last year as well due to lighter release schedules caused by strikes. Now, theater owners are dealing with the aftermath of a lengthy halt in production. In essence, they need moviegoers to attend more screenings in order to bounce back from these challenging times.

Going into Thanksgiving, things seem to be moving slowly, but as Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution for Paramount, points out, the market thrives when it offers something appealing to all. Fortunately, this Thanksgiving, there’s a wide array of options, including ‘Gladiator II’, produced by Paramount,” is a possible paraphrase that maintains the original meaning and is easier to read.

Historically, Thanksgiving has been a bustling period for cinemas. It reached its peak in 2018, earning a total of $315 million across all films, with “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” and “Creed II” leading the pack. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic, Thanksgivings have generally been underwhelming, with more flops like Disney Animation’s “Strange World” and “Wish” than successes such as Marvel’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” The 2021 holiday was one of the poorest in recent memory, with box office sales barely reaching $125 million. There’s hope that this year’s selection could buck the negative trend.

According to Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer of Flix Brewhouse cinema chain based in Texas, it seems we’re anticipating our largest Thanksgiving ever. Three major films could help us recover significant losses swiftly.

Lately, movies such as “Joker: Folie à Deux” and “The Fall Guy,” starring Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, have shown that success at the box office isn’t guaranteed for any film. This trend, following the pandemic era, has served as a stark reminder of the unpredictability in the movie industry.

It seems likely that “Moana 2” will continue Disney’s streak of box office successes, following the enormous earnings of “Inside Out 2” ($1.6 billion) and “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($1.3 billion). However, unlike its predecessor, the sequel was initially planned as a TV show for Disney+, but later transformed into a movie. The question remains: will it possess the same caliber of quality, and more crucially, songs as memorable as “How Far I’ll Go,” to rekindle the unique charm of the original that has made it one of the most-streamed films ever?

There’s a lot of excitement for the upcoming movie “Wicked,” featuring Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba (the Wicked Witch of the West) and Ariana Grande as Glinda the Good. The buzz is comparable to that of the “Barbie” campaign. However, director Jon M. Chu’s two-part adaptation of the long-running Broadway show faces a challenge common to stage-to-screen adaptations: overcoming the commercial struggles that have affected similar projects like Steven Spielberg’s remake of “West Side Story,” Chu’s own “In the Heights,” “Dear Evan Hansen,” “Cats,” and “The Color Purple.” Despite being based on popular stage productions, these more recent attempts have underperformed at the box office.

Just like “Gladiator II,” needs to convince viewers that it’s worth revisiting the arena 25 years after its predecessor became a colossal box office hit. Director Ridley Scott has gathered an exciting ensemble consisting of Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, and Denzel Washington. However, success for legacy sequels isn’t solely based on brand recognition; there are hits like “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” but also flops such as “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Aronson expresses that they believe their ‘Gladiator’ sequel truly shines for mature viewers,” he says. “Our movie is exceptional in today’s market because it’s an R-rated continuation of an Oscar-winning film. This marketing effort is the largest we’ve ever undertaken.

In other cinemas, horror enthusiasts can look forward to the chilling “Heretic” from A24 (released on Nov. 8), while faith-based audiences are drawn to “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” also released by Lionsgate on Nov. 8. For those in between, Dwayne Johnson’s festive movie “Red One” hits the screens on Nov. 15.

According to Randleman, we’re looking for a variety of movie choices, ranging from early morning to late night. It seems studios often release a big movie over the weekend, but there’s room for multiple films to succeed simultaneously, if given the chance.

2024-11-04 21:48

Hollywood Bets on Thanksgiving Rebound: Will ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II’ and ‘Moana 2’ Revive the Sluggish Fall Box Office?

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