Harris and Trump Bets Near Even Odds Ahead of U.S. Election Day as ‘Voter Fraud’ Rumors Swirl

As a seasoned political observer with decades of experience, I can’t help but feel a sense of intrigue when observing the dynamic shifts in the U.S. presidential race on Polymarket. The recent surge in Kamala Harris’ odds is reminiscent of a well-executed Hail Mary pass in a nail-biting football game – unexpected, thrilling, and potentially game-changing.

On the betting platform Polymarket, there’s growing optimism about Democrat Kamala Harris’ chances in the upcoming U.S. elections. Hundreds of thousands of favorable shares are being traded, leading to an increase in market activity.

On Polymarket, a decentralized platform, users can purchase “shares” connected to various predictions, earning one USDC unit per share if the predicted outcome becomes reality. If a ‘Yes’ share for an event is priced at $0.60, this signifies that the market estimates a 60% probability of the event taking place.

The stock price of Harris has significantly increased to more than 44 cents before the election count on Tuesday, a rise from 33 cents on October 30. Meanwhile, the stocks of Republican Donald Trump have declined correspondingly, dropping from 66 cents to 55 cents within that timeframe.

Meanwhile, polling aggregator Real Clear Polling gives Trump a microscopic edge at 48.5-48.4%.

Over the weekend, wagers surpassing $10,000 and $100,000 saw a surge, indicating heightened activity. Notably, significant investors of “yes” stocks for both Trump and Harris have been selling off their holdings due to elevated demand. It seems they’re cashing in on the substantial price growth of these shares over recent months.

According to an analysis by CoinDesk, the likelihood of Harris’ victory could potentially rise because traders are making larger bets on her or taking strategic steps to safeguard themselves against a Trump defeat, as indicated by trade activity exceeding $10,000.

Market analysts suggest that the rise in Harris’ chances is due to protective strategies among traders who have also wagered on a win for her opponent, Trump, indicating a possible hedging of their bets.

Speculation about potential voting inconsistencies that might involve Trump is potentially impacting financial wagers, as unconfirmed allegations of voting manipulations (which, if accurate, would benefit the Democratic party) have been extensively shared on social media platforms during the last week.

Known political wagerer ‘Domer’ stated on a recent post that they estimate a probability of 55-60% for Kamala Harris to be elected as the next U.S. President, considering multiple surveys and patterns in voting tendencies.

More Republicans are voting ahead of time compared to Democrats. This finding might suggest either a deliberate voting strategy or a change in the way voters are behaving.

Moreover, contrary to predictions, the post-2020 elections have not been favorable for the Republican party. This is surprising given President Joe Biden’s struggles with his approval ratings, hinting at a possible discrepancy between public opinion polls and the true feelings of voters, or the eventual election results.