As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of market experience under my belt, I’ve learned to navigate through the rollercoaster ride that is cryptocurrency. The recent correlation between Bitcoin’s price action and Trump’s election odds has been nothing short of fascinating.
“Markets hate uncertainty,” goes an old Wall Street saw.
Approximately four days ago, the value of bitcoin (BTC) was just shy of surpassing its record price of around $73,700, potentially boosted by growing support for pro-cryptocurrency Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
During that period, the probability of Donald Trump winning on the Polymarket betting market peaked at an impressive 67%, while Kamala Harris’ chances dipped to 33%.
Although Trump’s likelihood of winning has decreased, so has the value of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. At one point during the night, Trump’s probability of victory dropped below 53%, with Harris exceeding 47%. Simultaneously, Bitcoin plunged to $67,600. As of press time, during the U.S. morning hours on Sunday, both Trump and Bitcoin have rebounded slightly, with Trump at 56% and Bitcoin at $68,300, representing a decline of more than 2% over the past day.
Over the specified period, the comprehensive CoinDesk 20 Index has dropped by approximately 2.3%. Notably, Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX) have struggled, with both experiencing a decline of close to 6% each.
As a crypto investor, I find it astonishing to see how closely tied Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are with President Trump’s re-election prospects, as pointed out by analyst Miles Deutscher in his analysis.
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2024-11-03 15:44