As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for reading market trends and patterns, I find myself increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential performance in Q4 of 2021. The historical data showing Bitcoin’s bullish fourth quarters, especially during halving years, coupled with the current on-chain data, paints a promising picture.
Historical trends suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) tends to perform exceptionally well during the last quarters of past market upswings, particularly when it’s a halving year. At present, the on-chain indicators hint that Bitcoin is adhering to these patterns and appears poised for another impressive Q4 performance.
According to a recent analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s upcoming price surge might persist due to an increasing and rapidly recovering interest in the cryptocurrency, which is experiencing its highest monthly demand growth rate since April.
Bitcoin in Positive Seasonal Performance
In the years when bitcoin underwent its halving events (2012, 2016, and 2020), it experienced growth of approximately 9%, 59%, and 171% respectively in their final quarters. Analysts at CryptoQuant have noted that bitcoin’s current behavior is remarkably similar to the patterns observed in 2016 and 2020.
The exceptional increase in Bitcoin’s performance is primarily fueled by a significant surge in perceived demand for BTC, which saw an addition of approximately 177,000 BTC last week, marking its highest level since April. Perceived demand signifies the gap between newly mined BTC and BTC that has been out of circulation for over a year. This figure peaked at around 496,000 BTC in early April, following Bitcoin’s surge above $72,000 in March.
Prior to a more than 5% increase in its value, there was a significant rise in this particular indicator. Currently, Bitcoin reached a peak of $68,100 this week and is being traded at approximately $67,900 as I’m typing this.
Demand Is Growing
In addition, it’s evident that there’s a surge in demand for Bitcoin as shown by the growing number of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) being purchased. Lately, these ETFs have been net buyers of about 8,000 BTC per day, which is their highest daily purchase since July 21.
Major Bitcoin holders (often referred to as ‘whales’) are also increasing their stash, with an annual increase of approximately 670,000 BTC. This upward trend in whale holdings exceeds its 365-day moving average, which is typically seen as a bullish indicator for prices.
According to CryptoQuant, an increase in Bitcoin’s perceived interest or demand is crucial for its price to consistently reach new record highs. Previous periods of increasing interest, as seen in the market rallies of 2020-2021 and earlier this year, were marked by growing demand. At those times, the demand level peaked between 490,000 and 550,000 Bitcoins. However, at present, the demand is lower, sitting at around 177,000 Bitcoins. This suggests that there’s still potential for a significant increase in demand.
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2024-10-19 14:48