Caroline Ellison Most Likely Won’t Serve Time, Polymarket Traders Bet

Approximately one week and a half past when FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was officially indicted in December 2022, Caroline Ellison, his ex-partner who led Alameda Research, submitted a plea bargain requesting leniency by fully collaborating with the prosecution.

Earlier this month, the attorney for Ellison appeared in a U.S. court in Manhattan, pleading for lenient supervised release based on her exceptional assistance to the government.

On Polymarket, traders are placing wagers with the belief that the court will rule in favor of her avoiding prison time. The price for “yes” shares (indicating a verdict of no prison time) is currently 48 cents. This implies that the market predicts a 46% probability that she’ll be released. Each share yields $1 (in USDC, a digital currency equivalent to one U.S. dollar) if the prediction proves accurate; otherwise, it pays nothing.

But there’s also a slight possibility (20%) that Ellison gets 12 to 13 months.

Polymarket bettors have a mixed track record on guessing prison sentences.

Initially, people underestimated the prison term for FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, as it turned out to be 25 years, while market predictions suggested a 27% likelihood of 20-30 years and a 28% chance of 40-50 years. On the other hand, they had accurately predicted that former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao would serve less than six months in prison, as he was actually sentenced to four.

The intel on Qualcomm-Intel deal

Over the weekend, a significant shakeup occurred within the semiconductor sector as word got out that Qualcomm had initiated discussions with Intel regarding a potential acquisition. Reports from experts in Asia suggest that these negotiations are indeed ongoing.

Polymarket bettors are only giving this a 13% chance of happening by Oct. 31.

From a purely financial perspective, Intel’s shareholders would certainly welcome such a deal.

As a crypto investor reflecting on Intel’s journey over the past two decades, it’s hard not to notice that its value seems to have remained stagnant. The reason, I believe, lies in Intel’s missed opportunity in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Their attempts to develop a competitive AI chip by 2017 fell short, which has been a significant setback.

Additionally, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon processors, modeled after ARM architecture, are making waves in the laptop market by delivering impressive performance, leaving Intel’s competitors struggling to keep up.

Regulators, on the other hand, are going to have a field day with this.

It appears that Taiwan and China share a common viewpoint regarding Qualcomm; they both consider it as operating like a monopoly within the mobile phone market. Regulators from both regions have fined the company for such practices. Last week, an appeal in Europe against a 2019 fine was unsuccessful for Qualcomm, as the court found them guilty of predatory pricing.

According to a Taiwanese trade publication Digitimes, Qualcomm’s potential acquisition of Intel could encounter obstacles such as antitrust issues and financing difficulties. As a result, some experts speculate that the company might be taking on more than it can handle, leading to doubts among Polymarket bettors about the deal’s success. In simpler terms, there are reasons to believe that the proposed acquisition by Qualcomm of Intel may not happen due to antitrust and financial challenges, causing some analysts to think that the company is taking on too much.

In vogue

Two of the biggest names in crypto want to enter the prediction market space.

During last week’s Token2049 event in Singapore, decentralized exchange (DEX) dYdX said it plans to launch perpetual futures on prediction markets, which dYdX Foundation CEO Charles d’Haussy explained in an interview with CoinDesk would offer decentralized finance (DeFi) “a unique opportunity to regain attention.”

The prediction market feature on DYdX is anticipated to debut later in the year, coinciding with their significant dYdX Unlimited update. As we draw nearer to the release date, details such as the types of markets involved will be disclosed.

As an analyst, I had the opportunity to attend Token2049 and was thrilled to learn about Wintermute’s upcoming venture – OutcomeMarket. This innovative platform will enable us to trade on outcomes as tokens, with these tradable tokens listed on various exchanges. To kick things off, they are launching a prediction market centered around the U.S. election. Here, users can participate by purchasing either TRUMP or HARRIS tokens, essentially placing their bets on who will emerge victorious in the election.

As a crypto investor, I’ve learned that Bebop, WOO, and Backpack are set to debut their new tokens soon, though the specific launch dates remain undisclosed for now.