Bitcoin Unfazed as U.S. Clarity Act Markup Looms: What’s Next for Crypto?

by

Clarity Act markup leaves <a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">bitcoin</a> unstirred

What to know:

  • The Senate is set to mark up the U.S. Clarity Act, a sweeping digital-asset bill that would ban interest on stablecoin balances, impose penalties up to $5 million and add the Treasury as a key rule-making authority alongside the SEC and CFTC.
  • Despite the bill’s high stakes and more than 100 proposed amendments, bitcoin options markets show historically low implied volatility and little pricing of event risk.
  • Technical signals suggest bitcoin’s latest recovery has ended after breaking an April uptrend line near the 200-day moving average, raising the risk of momentum-driven selling toward $75,000.

This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.

The most important event this week for cryptocurrencies, a detailed review of the U.S. Clarity Act, is happening later today. However, the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, isn’t reacting much to it.

The new bill in progress would create clear rules for digital assets like cryptocurrencies. The most recent version, published on May 11th, includes important changes: it prohibits paying interest on stablecoin holdings and sets a $5 million fine for breaking the rules. It also gives the Treasury Department power to create regulations, joining the SEC and CFTC in overseeing the market.

Currently, there are no rules stopping government officials from creating and distributing digital tokens. However, experts believe these rules could be added when the relevant legislation is reviewed and revised by a Congressional committee.

With the new regulations likely to be approved, the argument for including Bitcoin in a well-rounded investment portfolio, as a way to reduce risk and diversify holdings, is becoming even more compelling, according to Can-Luca Köymen, an investment strategist at Sygnum Bank.

Not everyone is happy with the current wording.

More than 100 changes were suggested for Substack before Wednesday’s deadline, and one proposal specifically aimed to prevent crypto companies from having master accounts at the Federal Reserve.

According to Noelle Acheson, author of ‘Crypto is Macro Now,’ the situation could still face difficulties. While recent developments are encouraging, she warns that things could easily take a turn for the worse tomorrow.

She explained that the committee needs support from both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate to get the bill passed. Otherwise, she cautioned, the bill’s chances of becoming law this year – currently estimated at around 60% according to Polymarket – could decrease significantly.

Even though a lot is riding on Bitcoin, predictions for how much its price might fluctuate remain relatively calm, suggesting a more stable market right now.

According to Block Scholes analysts Andrew Melville and Thahbib Rahman, expectations for price swings in Bitcoin are currently very low, with short-term options trading near their lowest prices of the year (showing implied volatility at a historically low 30%). They also note that options for both Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies aren’t reflecting any anticipated risks related to the upcoming Senate CLARITY Act discussion.

Market activity related to Coinbase (COIN) is showing some concerning signals. Traders seem to be anticipating that a forthcoming bill will positively impact companies like Coinbase if it brings regulatory clarity, but they don’t expect it to boost Bitcoin itself. Keep a close watch on this situation!

Today’s signal

Bitcoin’s price dropped after hitting a key resistance level, where its 200-day moving average met the upper edge of the price pattern that’s been in place since February. This pattern has guided the price recovery from its recent lows.

It’s not just a routine pullback from resistance.

Prices have now fallen below a recent upward trend that started in April, indicating the latest price increase is likely over.

These factors suggest a potential for a price drop, possibly down to $75,000 or even lower, as traders may start selling to lock in profits. However, if the price can climb above $82,000 – the 200-day average – it could signal a return to a positive price trend.

Read More

2026-05-14 14:39