As a seasoned economist with decades of experience under my belt, I find myself deeply concerned about the current state of affairs regarding interest rates and the economy. The letter penned by Senators Warren and Rosen urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively than the market expects seems reasonable, given the slowdown in job growth and potential risks of a recession.


As an analyst, I’m reporting that Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), along with fellow Democrats, penned a letter to the Federal Reserve on Monday, urging them to implement swifter and more substantial interest rate reductions than currently anticipated by the financial markets.

“Today’s letter appeals to the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower the federal funds rate, which is currently at a twenty-year high of 5.3%, by 0.75% during their meeting on September 17 and 18, 2024, as part of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

“Too Late” To Cutting Rates

The letter was penned after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole in August, where he declared that it was now appropriate for the central bank to reduce interest rates. Although he emphasized that the positive risks related to inflation had decreased, he admitted that the negative risks associated with unemployment were starting to emerge.

Additionally, Senator Warren’s persistence over several months led to the suggestion that the Federal Reserve should have reduced interest rates earlier this year, similar to the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB). At that time, she, along with Senator Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada), contended that elevated interest rates paradoxically fueled inflation, impacting costs such as housing and auto insurance.

Although admitting that inflation is almost at the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, Warren now suggests that “it might have already passed” the appropriate moment for the Fed to initiate slight interest rate increases. She pointed out the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revised figure showing a shortfall of 818,000 jobs in the 12-month period ending March 2024 compared to the initial estimation – indicating slower job growth than what was anticipated by the Fed.

The senators stated that if the Federal Reserve is overly conservative with interest rate reductions, there’s a chance our economy could unwarrantedly slip into a recession. They suggested that the Committee should think about making initial, more substantial rate cuts to lessen potential risks to the job market.

What Will The Fed Do Next?

Based on CME FedWatch, it’s estimated that there’s about a 67% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in interest rates on Wednesday. Some members of the Fed have indicated they are prepared to initiate rate cuts, expressing concern that without a clear subsequent action, the job market could be at risk.

Contrarily to market expectations, BlackRock issued a warning on Monday suggesting that interest rate reductions may not be as deep as anticipated. As a result, Bitcoin‘s value dipped again, falling back below $58,000.

Read More

2024-09-17 00:26