Second Assassination Attempt Barely Moves Trump’s Polymarket Odds

As a seasoned researcher with a knack for deciphering the intricacies of financial markets and technology, I find myself captivated by this week’s developments in prediction markets. The recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump has sent ripples through the political landscape, yet it seems that bettors on platforms like Polymarket remain unfazed, with their faith in Kamala Harris remaining steadfast.

Donald Trump survived an apparent second assassination attempt over the weekend.

At Donald Trump’s golf course in Florida, a man named Ryan Wesley Routh from Hawaii was discovered concealed among bushes, armed with an assault rifle. Although he didn’t discharge any firearms, the incident sparked news headlines such as “Another attempt on Donald Trump’s life could disrupt the election” (later revised to “Another attempt to kill Trump stirs concerns about political violence”). This event occurred while Trump was playing golf.

It’s possible that the editors at the magazine decided to explore the crypto-prediction market platform, Polymarket, since its election betting could reach $1 billion, as investors seem unbothered by recent events and consider them insignificant.

In the wake of the recent event, Trump’s chances appear to have decreased, with Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, leading him by a margin of around 49% to 50% as of early Monday morning in New York.

From my perspective as an analyst, it’s important to acknowledge that the Economist’s initial assessment of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, where a shot grazed his ear, was not entirely off the mark. At that time, Trump was indeed vying for office against the seasoned incumbent, Joe Biden. The incident seemingly bolstered Trump’s chances, though it should be noted that this was before the full scope of the election battle unfolded.

The chances are determined by how much investors are ready to spend on shares that yield money if their predictions prove accurate and have no value otherwise. Wagers on Polymarket are coded into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain, with payouts made in USDC, a stablecoin tied to the U.S. dollar. Due to a regulatory agreement, the platform restricts American users; however, some clever traders from the U.S. have found ways around this geographic restriction by using VPNs.

Eye on swing states

As with any U.S. presidential election, a lot is riding on the swing states.

It seems that wagerers on Polymarket have low expectations for either candidate sweeping all six contests. A bet suggesting Kamala Harris might win every single one has only a 24% probability, whereas the likelihood of Donald Trump achieving the same feat is at just 17%.

At present, for each individual state contract, it’s the Republicans who have a higher probability of winning in Arizona (61%), Georgia (59%), North Carolina (57%), and Pennsylvania (51%). However, in Nevada, the race is evenly matched at 50-50. Conversely, the Democrats are more likely to win in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Currently, Polymarket predicts that Donald Trump has a significant 61% chance of winning the crucial Electoral College, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model from September 11th. This prediction suggests a tighter race than what professional pollsters are currently reporting. (Note: Nate Silver is an advisor to Polymarket.)

As events unfold, the U.S.-governed prediction market, Kalshi, has put a halt on its anticipated election markets, waiting for a court ruling in a case filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Kalshi contract regarding which party will win the House of Representatives in November had a trading volume of $20,000, whereas the one concerning which party would emerge victorious in the Senate had a volume of $45,000.

The freeze seems likely to persist for another three days or so. Court documents indicate that oral arguments in the appeal will take place on Thursday.

An additional exchange that falls under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), known as Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx, has announced its plans to start offering markets for elections. This is distinct from Polymarket and Kalshi, as ForecastEx and Kalshi settle wagers using traditional currency, instead of cryptocurrency or digital assets.

20X leverage incoming

LogX, a protocol for continuous futures trading with cryptocurrencies, announced it secured $4 million in funding to broaden its scope into amplified forecasting marketplaces.

In simpler terms, a non-custodial market similar to a Decentralized Exchange (DEX), which is developing what they call a Defi superapp to attract new retail users, announced on their website that they plan to offer up to 20 times leverage on contracts predicting the results of elections such as Trump vs. Harris.

On this platform, the method of handling prediction markets shares similarities with D8X, a platform that initiated leveraged trading in July using a Polymarket oracle to gather pricing information and transfer it to D8X for traders. However, unlike D8X, which caps at 2X leverage, our platform does not have such limitations.

As a data analyst, I can share that according to Akshit Bordia, the founder of LogX, once the pricing data is uploaded onto their platform, their protocol’s market makers will strategically assume counterbalancing roles within the Polymarket ecosystem, thereby enhancing liquidity.

Right now, Bordia says the maximum bet for Trump or Harris election contracts is $100,000.

As a researcher, I am thrilled to share that the evolution currently unfolding before us is the next phase of prediction markets. Over the years, they have expanded substantially, attracting widespread media attention. This growth has made them far more captivating and significantly larger than during the last cycle.

What’s the plan for after the election? Sports and crypto price betting.

In this funding round, the CEOs from Hashed Emergent, Cumberland, DWF Ventures, and Orderly Network – specifically, Ryan Lee – took part.

Sorry, Milady

From my perspective as an analyst, it’s been noted that Trump’s supporters have dubbed him the “first crypto president.” However, in his latest public engagements like the X-space discussion with Elon Musk and the recent presidential debate, I haven’t observed any explicit references to Bitcoin or other digital assets from him.

As an analyst, I anticipate a shift in dynamics when I join Rug Radio later on Monday, as I will be unveiling World Liberty Financial therein. This unique move positions me as the first presidential candidate to publicly support a particular cryptocurrency initiative and simultaneously establish a venture during my campaign.

On the prediction market Polymarket, users are betting heavily that President Trump will use the term “crypto” at least five times in his speech, with an estimated probability of about 66%. Additionally, there’s a 34% chance he may say “bitcoin” that many times.

Regrettably for owners of Milady NFTs, featuring peculiar head shapes and vibrant anime-like eyes, it’s quite unlikely that the Republican presidential candidate will bring them up during their live broadcast, as chances are only 3%.