A Most Curious Case of Oil and Ominous Omens

DOJ and CFTC Probe Oil Futures Bets Before Iran Updates

The Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), ever the paragons of efficiency, are reportedly examining at least four oil futures trades totaling more than $2.6 billion. The bets were placed before prices fell amid Iran-related statements from President Donald Trump, including military action and ceasefire decisions, as if the Oval Office were a stockbroker’s paradise.

Trading data obtained by ABC News from the London Stock Exchange Group showed several large wagers tied to declining oil prices. On March 23, traders placed more than $500 million in bets about 15 minutes before Trump said he would delay threatened attacks on Iran’s power grid. On April 7, another $960 million trade came hours before Trump announced a temporary ceasefire. One might say the market was better informed than the president himself.

Rep. Ritchie Torres had already urged federal regulators to review the ceasefire-related trade. In an April 14 letter, he asked the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to open a joint investigation into potential insider trading, market manipulation, and any misuse of confidential government or diplomatic information. Torres stated in the letter:

“According to multiple credible press accounts, traders placed an approximately $950 million bet on declining oil prices shortly before the ceasefire became public.”

Trade Data Does Not Reveal Trader Identities

A separate transaction took place on April 17, when traders wagered $760 million that oil prices would fall about 20 minutes before Araghchi posted that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Additional activity followed on April 21, when bets totaling $430 million came about 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire. London Stock Exchange Group data reviewed by ABC News does not identify who placed the trades. It also does not prove that any trader acted using insider information. Reuters first reported the pattern of oil market activity tied to the Iran conflict developments.

Torres warned that if traders acted on advance knowledge of the ceasefire announcement, stating:

“This would represent not only a violation of the law but a fundamental breach of the public’s trust in the fairness of U.S. markets.”

Federal investigators have not publicly accused any individual or firm of wrongdoing. Neither the DOJ nor the CFTC has commented on the trades. The inquiry remains focused on whether the timing and scale of the bets were tied to access to nonpublic information before market-moving announcements became public. One wonders if the investigators will ever emerge from their bureaucratic labyrinth, or if they’ve simply taken up residence in it.