Gold Breaks Last Week’s Low: 200-Day Moving Average in Focus Amid Bearish Setup

by

XAU USD Daily Analysis: <a href="https://minority-mindset.com/gold">Gold</a> Breaks Last Week’s Low as Traders Watch 200-Day Moving Average

The price of Gold (XAUUSD) recently fluctuated around $4,573 on the hourly chart and has bounced back after a slight dip. However, Gold is still trending downwards as long as it stays below the $4,590 level.

Recent analysis on X shows increasing concern about potential declines across different timeframes. CyclesFan noted a key support level was broken last week, Mohammad Sami highlighted possible price drops, and Sensei Tutum outlined a larger pattern of correction that’s still unfolding.

Gold Breaks Last Week’s Low

CyclesFan noted that gold prices fell below the previous week’s low, drawing attention to the 200-day moving average. He identified this average at $4,283, considering it the lowest potential price point given the recent downward trend.

Looking at the daily price chart, gold is currently trading below its mid-range Bollinger Band after losing some of the upward momentum it gained earlier in the year. However, the price is still holding above its 200-day moving average, and the lower Bollinger Band is approaching a key support level.

According to CyclesFan, if the price falls below the 200-day moving average, it could lead to another test of the March low of approximately $4,100. This level serves as additional support if selling pressure continues, using the long-term average as a potential floor.

The daily chart is currently in a precarious position, but the price remains above key support levels. To regain upward momentum and move past recent resistance, the market needs to show signs that the previous week’s low wasn’t a true breakdown.

XAUUSD Faces $4,590 Resistance

Mohammad Sami believes the price of XAUUSD is still trending downwards on 1-hour to 4-hour charts. He observed a price reversal within an upward-sloping wedge, and identifies a resistance level around 4,590, which coincides with the upper boundary of the wedge.

The analysis points to potential support levels at $4,510, $4,480, and $4,450. The price could initially rise to the top of its current trading range, but if sellers hold firm around the red resistance area, it’s likely to fall and test the lower end of that range.

However, Sami’s Chart also noted the arrangement would be canceled if H4 closes above $4,590. This price point is now key – whether it’s breached will likely determine if the current downward trend continues or if prices begin to recover more steadily.

Looking at the hourly chart, gold was trading around $4,573.36, which was a nice 1.10% increase at that moment. It was also sitting above a support level around $4,541.86 – something I’m watching closely, as that could be the first place the price might pull back to if this recent rally loses steam.

Wider Structure Still Corrective

Tutum Sensei believes the market’s recent gains might just be a temporary bounce within a larger, ongoing trend. He’s updating his analysis because the initial plan no longer fits the current market behavior, suggesting a more complex pattern is developing.

The analyst believes the primary concern is that the significant downward trend hasn’t fully run its course. However, they also noted signs of weakening in the recent bounce – specifically, what’s called a ‘B wave’ – suggesting a temporary price increase before another substantial move either up or down.

The analysis suggests the price might briefly increase before falling to a lower support level. While this short-term movement doesn’t quite match the overall downward trend seen in the hourly and four-hour charts, both analyses agree that the current price increase is likely just a temporary correction within that larger downward trend.

Currently, gold prices are mainly fluctuating around key levels. If the price rises above $4,590, it would suggest a weakening of the recent downward trend. However, if it stays below that level, traders will be watching the $4,510, $4,480, and $4,450 moving averages, all within the broader context of a 200-day moving average around $4,283.

Read More

2026-05-06 00:52