Bitcoin’s April Rally Mirrors 2022 Bear Market: Is $79K Resistance at Risk?

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Cryptoquant Researchers Warn <a href="https://investment-policy.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a>’s April Rally Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Demand Pattern

As a researcher, I’ve been analyzing the recent Bitcoin price increase in April, where it jumped from around $66,000 to $79,000 – a 20% rise. My findings from Cryptoquant data indicate this rally wasn’t driven by people actually buying Bitcoin; instead, it was almost entirely fueled by demand for perpetual futures contracts. Interestingly, while the price was going up, actual spot buying decreased. This makes me question how sustainable this rally really is.

Key Takeaways:

  • Cryptoquant data shows bitcoin’s April 2026 rally from $66K to $79K was driven entirely by perpetual futures demand, with zero spot support.
  • Bitcoin’s Cryptoquant Bull Score dropped from 50 to 40 by month’s end, signaling deteriorating onchain fundamentals after the speculative run.
  • Cryptoquant researchers warn that the current demand pattern mirrors 2022’s bear market onset, putting $79K resistance at risk of further rejection.

Bitcoin Futures Traders Pushed BTC to $79K While Spot Demand Stayed Negative, Data Shows

According to Cryptoquant‘s latest report, bitcoin‘s apparent demand metric, which tracks the 30-day change in estimated onchain spot buying activity, stayed negative for the full duration of April’s price run. Perpetual futures demand expanded during the same window as speculative traders pushed prices higher through leverage rather than direct coin accumulation.

Cryptoquant researchers describe the gap between rising futures activity and contracting spot demand as one of the clearest onchain signals that price gains are speculative in nature. When spot demand falls while price climbs, the market’s marginal buyer is positioned in derivatives, not in actual bitcoin.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been looking closely at the recent price action, and an analyst’s breakdown of the demand really stood out. It’s pretty clear what happened in April’s rally: each jump in price was fueled by more activity in perpetual futures contracts, but surprisingly, actual buying of Bitcoin – spot demand – *decreased*. It wasn’t like spot buyers were just slow to react; they were actively selling off as futures traders piled in. That’s a really unusual pattern, and it makes the rally’s dynamics hard to ignore.

Cryptoquant analysts have observed that price increases like this one usually don’t last. If there isn’t new buying interest to support higher prices, the market will likely fall as traders close out their futures positions.

The historical parallel Cryptoquant researchers draw is direct and worth taking seriously. The same demand signature appeared at the onset of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand expanded in isolation while spot apparent demand stayed in contraction. That setup preceded a multi-month price decline. Cryptoquant applies onchain demand decomposition consistently across cycles and identifies this pattern as a reliable early indicator of price fragility.

Bitcoin has already begun pulling back from the April peak. Price slipped from $79,000 to $75,000 following the rally’s high, a move consistent with how futures-led rallies historically resolve once speculative positioning begins to unwind. As of Saturday, May 2, BTC is exchanging hands just above $78,000 after trying again to reach the $80,000 mark.

Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, crossing back below the neutral threshold and returning to bearish territory. The index briefly reached 50, neutral ground, in mid-April before sliding to 40 by month’s end despite the 20% price gain during that stretch. Cryptoquant describes a score of 40 as conditions “getting bearish,” placing the market in a range historically associated with continued price weakness.

The Bull Score is a composite index Cryptoquant builds from multiple onchain and market indicators, scaled from 0 to 100. Scores above 50 reflect bullish conditions. Scores below 50 reflect bearish conditions. The market action also coincides with the U.S.-Iran conflict and geopolitical rumblings. Yesterday, Trump said the conflict was over, which gave bitcoin another boost alongside equities.

According to Cryptoquant, Bitcoin needs to see increased buying pressure to break past $79,000 and maintain that level. Without a shift in demand, any price increase to that peak won’t be backed by strong on-chain data, meaning it’s unlikely to last.

While the data doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see another extended price drop like in 2022, Cryptoquant points out that current market behavior looks more like a sign of potential price weakness than increasing investment.

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2026-05-02 18:01