Senate Bans Prediction Bets: A Very Public No-Go

by

Darling readers, the United States Senate, with a flourish and a sigh, has decreed that senators and their staff must not dabble in prediction markets-no more fortune-telling on the public’s dime, as if the future were a charming little roulette we can spin at will.

Summary

  • The Senate, with a wave of velvet efficiency, approved a rule barring members and staff from prediction markets, and the change took effect immediately.
  • Lawmakers cited the risks of insider information misuse, with Senator Bernie Moreno declaring the ban a proper shield for public trust.

By unanimous consent on a Thursday, the resolution breezed through, changing the chamber’s standing rules and taking effect forthwith-one of those delightful quantum leaps you reserve for parliamentary fashion shows.

The ban, we are told, is tied to the worry that officials privy to sensitive whispers could profit from event contracts-a most unrefined dalliance with the future, indeed.

“To meddle in any manner with a prediction market-or to place bets where we might possess inside information-deteriorates the confidence our constituents must feel in us,” declared Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, the gentleman who introduced the measure, on the Senate floor.

He insisted the rule change guarantees “no member of the United States Senate, no member of the staff of the United States Senate, can ever monetize this gig with inside information whatsoever.”

Ethics concerns drive Senate action on prediction markets

Whispers grew louder after a special-forces soldier tied to the plan to seize Nicolás Maduro was charged on April 23 with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket. The soldier pleads not guilty, while lawmakers fret over well-timed wagers tied to the Iran drama.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer lent his elegant approval, framing the issue as a straightforward ethics matter.

“Of all the issues we debate in Washington, this is a no-brainer. We must never allow Congress to turn into a casino where members representing the public can gamble on wars, or economic crises, or elections,” Schumer said.

“We should go further; this is a good start, but not enough. The administration and its employees must apply these same rules, particularly this administration, which shows a troubling fondness for corruption and self-dealing,” he added.

Reaction from the House followed suit. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson announced on X that she would introduce a similar resolution to ban the use of prediction markets in the House.

Prediction-market operators responded in kind. Polymarket posted on X that it fully supported the Senate resolution, noting that its terms of service “already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry.”

Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour likewise welcomed the resolution on X and said Kalshi “already proactively blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading.”

The Senate ban lands as prediction markets face separate regulatory skirmishes over whether event contracts should be treated as federally regulated financial products or state-regulated gambling. And as crypto.news reported, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued Wisconsin after the state filed complaints against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase over prediction-market products.

Read More

2026-05-01 09:38