As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I have seen my fair share of market fluctuations and expiries. Today’s Bitcoin options expiry, while significant in terms of notional value, is relatively small compared to last week’s end-of-month expiry. The put/call ratio of 0.82 suggests a slight bias towards long contracts, indicating that the bulls are still holding on for a rally. However, the market confidence seems to be waning as implied volatility is slightly higher and major term Skews are veering in bearish.
Approximately 13,500 Bitcoin options agreements will reach their expiration date on Friday, September 6, carrying an estimated total value of about $776 million.
This week’s option expiration is significantly smaller than the one that occurred at the end of last month, which means its influence on the spot market is expected to be quite low.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
For this week’s batch of Bitcoin options, the number of long (call) contracts set to expire outnumbers the short (put) contracts by a small margin, with a put/call ratio of approximately 0.82.
The quantity of contracts that haven’t been settled yet, at prices of $70,000 and $75,000, remains substantial as per Deribit’s data. In simpler terms, a significant number of future trades are still pending for these specific price levels, based on the information provided by Deribit.
Moreover, approximately $720 million and $913 million of Option Instrument (OI) is found at the $90,000 and $100,000 strike prices respectively, indicating that optimistic investors are maintaining their positions in anticipation of an upward market trend.
September 5th saw Greeks Live, a provider of crypto derivatives, express that investor confidence appears to be diminishing further.
“Regarding options data, there’s a strong lean towards pessimism in all the major terms, and the predicted volatility is moderately increased. In essence, the options market anticipates a more negative short-term outlook for the future.”
Additionally, it’s anticipated that favorable occurrences will take place soon, and historically, September hasn’t been a particularly strong month either.
Besides the Bitcoin options set for expiration this week, there are approximately 126,000 Ethereum options approaching maturity, collectively worth about $304 million. The put and call contracts in this case have a ratio of 0.63.
In simpler terms, the interest in trading options is decreasing because the market’s overall confidence is dwindling. Notably, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved towards “severe fear,” causing the price of Bitcoin to drop below $56,000 once more.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 22. Extreme FearCurrent price: $56,159
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) September 6, 2024
Crypto Market Outlook
Today, the market has suffered another loss, with the total market capitalization decreasing by an additional 3%, bringing it down to approximately $2.08 trillion. This drop has returned the market to its lowest point since the significant downturn on August 5, reminiscent of Black Monday.
During early Asian trading hours on Friday, Bitcoin plunged to a low of $55,800. Yet, it has bounced back slightly and currently stands at $56,300 as we speak.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes was bearish, predicting a weekend dump:
“BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.”
In similar fashion, the larger portion of the altcoin market finds itself in a similarly challenging state, as many high-value alternatives have lost a few percentage points today.
Read More
- AAVE PREDICTION. AAVE cryptocurrency
- BONE PREDICTION. BONE cryptocurrency
- Skull and Bones: Navigating the Quest for Extra Teeth in the Game
- Discovering the Infinite Power: The Abiotic Factor that Could Change Everything
- Uncovering the Mystery of Red King Players in Clash Royale – What Reddit Users Have to Say
- Finding Resources in Palworld: Tips from the Community
- The Last Epoch Dilemma: Confronting the Gold Dupe Crisis
- W PREDICTION. W cryptocurrency
- Gaming News: Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth’s Dondoko Island Takes Expansion to New Heights
- Call of Duty: Why Fans Say Activision is a ‘Stealer of Joy’
2024-09-06 10:35