Trump Unlikely to Drop Out of ABC Debate With Harris Despite Threats: Polymarket Traders

The odds on the market suggest there’s an 84% likelihood that Trump will debate Kamala Harris on September 10. Bets concerning this event are recorded as smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain. If the prediction proves accurate, each share yields $1 (in USDC, a cryptocurrency that typically holds its value at par with the U.S. dollar). However, if the prediction fails, the return is zero.

On Monday, the contract was made public, causing the odds to momentarily drop to a minimum of 72%. However, they’ve primarily been fluctuating around 80% since then.

Without a doubt, the sum involved in this matter is relatively modest – only $22,000 – and seems insignificant next to Polymarket’s election winner contract, which has accumulated bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars. At the time of writing, the odds for Trump were slightly favored in that particular market.

On a Sunday, it appeared Trump was considering skipping the debate due to his belief that the hosting network, ABC News, may hold an unfair bias towards him.

“Why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?” he wrote.

Betters at Polymarket generally express skepticism that the candidates’ microphones will be turned off during the debate, with an estimated 40% chance. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the question of whether to allow live or muted microphones has been a contentious issue in discussions. According to the report, the Harris campaign insists on both microphones functioning actively, while the Trump campaign advocates for keeping them silenced, as was done during a June debate on CNN between Trump and President Biden.

On this platform where a massive $414 million was traded just last month (as per Dune Analytics), the wager on the microphone is comparatively minor, costing less than $7,000.

An essential point to note is that due to an agreement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket must prevent U.S. residents from using their platform. Therefore, it’s likely that individuals making predictions on this platform are doing so based on data observed from a distance.

Conversely, it’s significant that these bettors are investing their own funds. This suggests they are motivated to conduct extensive research to avoid suffering financial losses.

On the regulated US platform, Kalshi, traders are offering odds that set the likelihood as follows: