Past bear markets in Bitcoin have been painful, with previous crashes wiping out over 80% of its value in 2017 and almost 77% in 2021. So, when new analysts recently predicted a drop to $50,000, those warnings felt significant, even if they weren’t immediately acted upon.
A Different Kind Of Cycle
According to Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, investors are watching for Bitcoin to potentially fall to $50,000, which he believes could be the last good chance to buy before the price starts to recover. He sees a drop to that level as a normal and beneficial correction, considering the current economic climate and limited investment in cryptocurrency.
Ruck highlighted a key difference between this market downturn and previous ones: Bitcoin has already fallen about 40% from its peak, and importantly, major institutions are much more involved this time than they have been in the past.
This shifts the situation significantly. Previous market drops were largely caused by individual investors reacting emotionally. However, large institutions invest differently, and their steady buying could be establishing a price level that wasn’t present in past downturns.
Ruck suggested that this market downturn might not fall as far as the typical 60%, noting the current market conditions are unusually shaped by larger economic factors.
Bitcoin: the big flush…
We likely haven’t reached the lowest price yet. While hoping for a better price is understandable, it probably won’t make a difference.
The overall trend remains downward. Any recent small gains are insignificant when looking at the bigger picture. I’ll re-evaluate my outlook if we see a sustained increase in buying pressure, but for now…
— Ivan on Tech Head Trader @ Bullmania (@IvanOnTech) April 13, 2026
Ivan Liljeqvist, a trader and author, recently shared on X that he thinks Bitcoin hasn’t hit its lowest price yet. He doesn’t believe the recent dip to $60,000 was the bottom, and he still expects the price to continue falling.
He pointed out that recent small price drops seemed insignificant compared to the overall trend. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar agreed, predicting Bitcoin might fall to $50,000 before a broader recovery allows more people to profit.
THREE PHASES. BITCOIN ABOUT TO ENTERTHE SECOND.
Accumulation: done.
Manipulation: loading.
Distribution: $150K. Pending.$70K is the decision.
Hold it: manipulation is short.
Lose it: $50K first.They ran this playbook once already.
You watched it happen.— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 13, 2026
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Swings
Cryptocurrency prices are affected by world events. For example, a short pause in conflict between the US and Iran caused Bitcoin’s price to quickly rise above $75,000 – a typical reaction when anxieties decrease, even if just temporarily.
President Trump announced a temporary, two-week halt to fighting, which initially boosted markets. However, that positive reaction didn’t continue for long.
Negotiations to resolve the conflict failed over the weekend, and on Monday, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $71,000. This happened after reports that Trump had ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and was also influenced by increasing consumer prices revealed in Friday’s economic report.
Bitcoin reached its highest price ever in October 2025, peaking at $126,198. Currently trading between $72,500 and $74,600, this means the price has fallen about 40% to 44% from that high. While this is a significant drop, it’s still less than the 60% decline that many experts consider the sign of a full-blown bear market.
BTC STILL LOOKS SUPER BEARISH HTF
Weekly short imbalances were filled and rn we can only go to 1M imbalance, which is ~$80K
Right after it, I am waiting for a final huge dump to one of my targets:
$59K or $50K
Either way last dump is coming
Notifs on, I’ll call exact bottom
— symbiote (@cryptosymbiiote) April 13, 2026
Analysts Split On What Comes Next
An analyst known as “symbiote” believes the price charts suggest a significant further drop, potentially to $59,000 or $50,000. However, not everyone agrees, and some think the price may have already bottomed out.
It’s difficult to predict where prices are headed because of conflicting factors. While consistent investment from institutions and ETFs keeps demand strong, global conflicts, inflation reports, and unpredictable interest rate decisions are creating downward pressure. Currently, neither the positive nor negative forces have gained a decisive advantage.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $66,000 in early April but has since bounced back. It’s unclear if that was the lowest price we’ll see, or if Bitcoin could fall further before stabilizing, and even experts disagree on what will happen next.
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2026-04-14 12:41