Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Tied on Polymarket on Who Will Be The Next U.S. President

As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for political predictions and a personal history of backing winners (and a few losers), I find myself intrigued by the current state of affairs. The odds on Polymarket, which I’ve come to trust as a reliable barometer, now have Kamala Harris tied with Donald Trump in their race for the White House.

Previously, I found myself comfortably ahead of the Democratic contenders in my bid for another term as president. However, with President Joe Biden stepping down and Vice President Kamala Harris taking the reins, the advantage I once held has seemingly vanished.

Over the past month, Trump’s chances of returning to the White House have decreased by 13%, conversely, Harris’ chances have risen by 34%. Initially, this was due to her being seen as Biden’s potential successor during his campaign’s final days. More recently, it’s because she is now viewed as a political adversary to Trump.

Trump’s approval rating has dropped significantly since peaking at 72%, following the initial presidential debate with Biden. This debate turned out to be a challenging night for the Democratic party, as Biden later admitted that he had made a mistake.

With this new development for Harris, Polymarket’s predictions now match the recent poll trends. A survey by CBS News from July 30 to August 2 showed Harris and Trump tied, as the former’s lead of 1 percentage point was within the poll’s margin of error of 2.1 points. At the same time, polling aggregator 538 also declared the race statistically tied. In the following days, Harris has managed to slightly pull ahead in the polls.

In the past month, PoliFi tokens based on Trump have also experienced a fall, with a steeper decrease compared to polls or forecast markets.

Over the past month, the initial Trump cryptocurrency token (MAGA) has experienced a significant drop of approximately 38%, as per data from CoinGecko. Similarly, the Solana-backed Tremp token has decreased by about 40% within the same period.