As a researcher with experience in political prediction markets, I’ve closely followed the trends on crypto-based platforms like Polymarket. The recent surge in Joe Biden’s probability of quitting the U.S. presidential race is concerning, and it reflects growing doubts among traders and political observers about his ability to continue effectively leading the country.
The likelihood of Joe Biden withdrawing from the US presidential contest rose by approximately 6 percentage points on Thursday, reaching a level of 65%, as indicated by traders on the cryptocurrency-driven forecast platform, Polymarket.
The chances grew higher as Biden prepared for his first press conference in months this evening in U.S. time. There have been concerns about his age and cognitive abilities that have sparked demands from influential Democrats and donors, including actor George Clooney, for the president to consider resigning, despite his continued intention to serve.
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The probability of Joe Biden securing the Democratic nomination decreased by 16 percentage points on Thursday, dropping to 38% based on data from a separate Polymarket prediction market.
In the latest contract prediction on Polymarket, Biden’s chances of winning the presidency have decreased by four points and now stand at 10%. Vice President Kamala Harris has a probability of 19%, while Donald Trump currently leads with a 61% likelihood.
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2024-07-12 02:07