Biden’s Blunder Ignites Trading Frenzy on Polymarket

As a crypto investor, I’d rephrase that as: Last week’s presidential debate left me feeling disappointed with President Joe Biden’s performance.

As a crypto investor and an interested observer of political news, I’ve come across some concerning developments regarding President Joe Biden’s tenure. The esteemed editorial board of The New York Times, who have historically been strong advocates for Democratic administrations, have issued a call for Biden to consider stepping down due to growing concerns about his cognitive health. Furthermore, according to a recent CBS/YouGov poll, an alarming 72% of voters share similar doubts about Biden’s ability to effectively serve as President. These revelations, while not directly affecting my crypto investments, do raise significant questions about the future leadership and direction of our country.

This was a betting bonanza for users of Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market platform.

As a researcher examining the latest political polling data, I’ve discovered that Biden’s chances of securing the presidency dipped significantly from approximately 33.5% before the debate to around 18% as of Monday morning in the United States. Meanwhile, Trump’s position strengthened, rising to a formidable 63%.

A different contract saw a surge in trading activity following the debate, with “yes” shares reaching 44 cents in the hours that followed, an increase from their previous price of 19 cents.

In simple terms, every share yields $1 in USDC when the forecast is correct, but none if it’s incorrect. Therefore, a share costing 44 cents implied a 44% likelihood that Biden would withdraw from the race.

As an analyst, I’d rephrase that statement into: The report from NBC indicating that Biden planned to spend the weekend at Mount David Presidential retreat with his family to deliberate on his campaign strategy shifted the probabilities in my assessment up to a 50% likelihood.

The White House denied recent reports over the weekend, resulting in a more balanced probability of around 43% by Monday morning U.S. time that the planned trip would occur.

For his part, President Biden is adamant that he will remain in the race.

After the debate, the President acknowledged the validity of the concerns raised by those in attendance. He expressed understanding, saying “I feel you” or “I sympathize”. Regarding his performance during the debate, he admitted it wasn’t his best night but vowed to work harder and requested their continued support to achieve their goals together.

Politically inclined investors have shown significant interest in the contract, with major backers from both sides of the digital divide predominantly wagering on markets centered around politics.

As a significant crypto investor, I, “The Real Batman,” have amassed a sizable stake of approximately $2.9 million in various political contracts. I believe in the likelihood of both Biden and Trump securing their party nominations. Furthermore, I’m confident that Biden will emerge as the popular vote winner in the U.S. Presidential Election. However, I’m betting against Trump’s chances of winning the election itself.

The political activities of Therealbatman make up the majority of his work, with one notable exception being a $50,000 wager. This bet is that the Eigen token, which functions as the native currency for the Eigenlayer protocol, will not be transferable until Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the ex-CEO of Binance, leaves prison.

On the opposing side in the Biden drop-out contract, an anonymous individual, identified solely by their Ethereum wallet address, possesses a significant investment of $184,000 influencing Biden’s outcome. Additionally, they hold a smaller stake worth $6,200, betting on Michelle Obama securing the Democratic nomination.

This individual holds a wager of $9,700 on longshot candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s victory in the ongoing presidential election, with his chances currently priced at just 2 cents.

Bitcoin price predictions

Traders on prediction markets have mixed opinions on where the price of bitcoin is going.

In the short term: stability.

A Polymarket contract gives bitcoin a 78% chance of being above $61,000 by July 5.

During the Asian business hours on Monday, the price of bitcoin on CoinDesk Indices averaged over $63,300 – a significant rebound from its dips below $60,000 at the start of the previous week.

The CoinDesk Indices’ Bitcoin Trend Indicator signifies that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a substantial decrease in value.

Interpreting the market signals, or “tea leaves,” can be a complex process for bettors. These indicators may suggest an upcoming correction preceding a potential rally that could challenge Bitcoin’s record peak.

A prediction from one contract on the U.S.-regulated Kalshi platform indicates a 65% likelihood that bitcoin will fall below $50,000 by the end of 2024, while there’s a 22% probability it could drop below $40,000. Concurrently, another contract suggests a 70% chance that bitcoin will surpass $75,000 or reach even higher values by year-end.

While Polymarket operates in various markets around the world with the exception of the United States, Kalshi focuses solely on the US market and settles all transactions in US dollars.

Two signs suggest that the market believes bitcoin’s value may face pressure due to persisting dollar dominance. However, this trend is likely to weaken once the Federal Reserve initiates rate reductions, an event anticipated by most investors, occurring around the final quarter.

Stranded in space

As a researcher, I’ve noticed that Boeing, a renowned aircraft manufacturer, has faced significant challenges here on Earth. However, it seems that these issues may not be limited to our planet.

As an analyst, I would put it this way: The spacecraft manufactured by the beleaguered aerospace corporation, which was meant to mark its return to orbit with a successful mission, has encountered setbacks at the International Space Station (ISS). Specifically, helium leaks and issues with its thrusters have kept Starliner tethered indefinitely beyond its planned departure on June 13.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that there is a strong belief among bettors that the astronauts will remain on the International Space Station (ISS) for an extended period. According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood of the astronauts departing on the Starliner by July 21 is relatively low, standing at just 11%.

As an analyst, I would interpret the market’s requirements as follows: According to the fine print, for the astronauts to comply with the market conditions, they must embark on a journey using Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. No exceptions are made for rescue vessels from SpaceX or Russia. The text does not explicitly state that the astronauts must safely return to Earth upon completion of their mission.