Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

Among the five American presidents, Donald Trump is one of the elected ones, having secured the presidency through the electoral college despite falling short in the popular vote count. Should prediction market forecasts hold true, he is poised to accomplish this unusual achievement once more in this current election cycle.

In the prediction market on Polymarket regarding the winner of the popular vote, a “yes” bet for President Joe Biden is priced at 56 cents. This implies that the market forecasts a 56% probability of Biden securing the popular vote victory. Each bet returns $1 (in USDC stablecoin) if the prediction is correct and nothing otherwise.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping an eye on the latest developments in the political scene, and according to current market prices, there’s only a 36% chance that Trump will win the popular vote in the upcoming election. This is based on $36 million worth of bets placed on this outcome, making it the fourth-largest market by volume on Polymarket.

Without a doubt, the contest with the most wagers – an impressive total of $182 million – is the one deciding the presidency. In this race, Trump holds the lead, boasting a strong probability of 57%, while Biden trails behind with 35%.

In accordance with a regulatory agreement, Polymarket restricts access for U.S. users, resulting in its traders making predictions from outside the country. In contrast, PredictIt – a well-known U.S.-based betting platform, which settles wagers in dollars under quasi-regulatory supervision – assigns a 52% probability to Trump’s victory and a 47% chance for Biden in the presidency race. The trading volume at PredictIt is relatively low, amounting to $15.7 million.

At the Constitutional Convention in 1787, the idea for the Electoral College was born. Its purpose is threefold: first, it aims to even out the power between densely populated and less populated states; second, it guarantees that smaller states have a significant role in the presidential election; and third, it prevents a few large states from controlling the election outcome solely based on their population size. The popular votes, which don’t influence the electoral results, represent the percentage of votes received by each candidate.

As an analyst, I would explain that I work with a college comprised of 538 electors. To secure a presidency, it’s essential to garner the support of more than half, specifically 270 votes. Each state contributes a number of electors equal to its Congressional delegation size. This includes one vote for every House representative (whose numbers are proportional to a state’s population) and two Senators per state.

Detractors label this long-standing mechanism undemocratic, while supporters maintain that it serves as a crucial safeguard for minority rights against the potential dominance of the majority. It’s worth noting that if Polymarket bettors are correct and Trump secures an electoral college victory despite losing the popular vote, there may be a resurgence of “Not My President” protests.

Donation negation

As a crypto investor and follower of political news, I’ve noticed an intriguing development: approximately two weeks ago, there were reports that President Biden would accept cryptocurrency donations, similar to his predecessor. However, up until now, his campaign has yet to make this a reality. This inaction has left traders on the Polymarket platform feeling let down, as they had placed bets counting on the president adopting this method of fundraising.

As a crypto investor, I can tell you that the “Biden accepts crypto donations by Friday?” contract, which was launched on June 12, came with a tight deadline of just nine days. The probability of it coming to fruition was initially around 48%, but those odds quickly dropped to zero. The market reached a consensus of “no” on June 21, as no official announcement had been made by the Biden campaign.

If Biden is considering making such an announcement as reported, there’s a chance it may still be revealed at a later time. Prediction markets carry this risk: You can place a bet that correctly predicts the direction of an outcome yet still incur losses because the event didn’t transpire within the predefined timeframe.

In May, Trump showed strong support for cryptocurrencies, leading some to speculate that the Biden administration might be reconsidering its firm opposition to the sector. This possibility raises the question of whether Trump could potentially accept campaign contributions in cryptocurrency.

Barron drama

As a researcher investigating the recent buzz surrounding the Solana-backed DJT token, I pondered if Barron Trump, Donald Trump’s son, played an active role in its creation. However, based on my current findings, it appears that there is no concrete evidence to substantiate this claim. The team behind the DJT token has not publicly disclosed any involvement from Barron Trump or the Trump family. I will continue to dig deeper into this intriguing topic and keep you updated on any new developments.

The verdict of the Polymarket contract concerning the mysterious issue was affirmed as “no” on Sunday, but this decision was contested. The outcome was reaffirmed as “no” once more and challenged a second time. A conclusive review is currently in progress and is predicted to end on Tuesday.

As a researcher investigating recent events in the cryptocurrency world, I came across an intriguing development that occurred in the Discord forum associated with UMA, the third-party oracle service utilized for settling wagers on Polymarket. On Monday, heated debates ensued among “yes” shareholders who were adamant about the validity of their bets.

The question at hand is if there is sufficient evidence to indicate that Barron Trump played a role in producing the Solana token $DJT, according to the guidelines set by Polymarket.

The Trump campaign and Barron have remained silent on this issue, meaning that those pushing for Trump’s involvement are primarily relying on the testimony of Martin Shkreli, a former pharmaceutical executive who served six years in prison for securities fraud.

Last week, Shkreli announced that he had collaborated with Barron to generate a new token after a heated $100 million wager against well-known cryptocurrency traders.

In recent developments, the novel digital currency created a stir amongst its followers due to rumors labeling it as the “official Trump coin.” This buzz was primarily fueled by unverified claims that Barron, the President’s son, was involved with the project. Anonymous advocates were ecstatic, predicting astronomical market values for this token, leading to a dramatic surge in prices, soaring thousands of percentage points within just a week.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that the absence of updates from the Trump family has started to raise concerns among their followers. In the past few days, the price of DJT, which was previously trading at around 3 cents on June 18th, has plummeted by over 50% and is now worth just a penny as of Monday.

As an analyst, I would rephrase the given text as follows: The confidence level for this claim among traders on Polymarket stands at 19% based on the pending review, a significant decrease from the initial assessment of 60% when the market was launched on June 21. This market has generated over $693,000 in trading volumes, making it the second most active crypto-related market on Polymarket.