Who’s Going to Win at the 2026 Golden Globes?

This weekend marks the start of awards season with the Golden Globes. While they were once known for unpredictable and surprising choices, and a reputation as an exclusive event, the Globes have recently changed, becoming more aligned with a major media company. Now, they tend to reflect the early favorites as awards season progresses. Last year, Emilia Pérez was a big success, earning ten nominations and four wins, though the career of Karla Sofía Gascón faced challenges afterward.

Despite recent controversies, the Golden Globes still matter for films. Because its voters come from all over the world, the Globes often predict the Academy Awards’ choices more accurately than other awards shows like the SAG or DGA Awards. Plus, winning a Golden Globe is fantastic publicity for Oscar contenders – it’s essentially free advertising weeks before the final vote. (The Emmys, in contrast, happen nine months after the Globes.) Last year, Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres both benefited greatly from their Golden Globe wins. We’ll see who gets a similar boost this year when the Globes air Sunday night on CBS, hosted again by Nikki Glaser. Here are our predictions. — Nate Jones

Movies

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners

One of the night’s most exciting awards will essentially determine which film is the clear second favorite to win Best Picture, after One Battle After Another. The prize will likely go to one of four contenders: Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, and Sinners—all of which also received nominations for Directing and Screenplay at the Golden Globes. While Sinners seemed like the frontrunner, its lack of acting nominations suggests Globes voters weren’t as enthusiastic about it as audiences generally were. Therefore, I’m predicting a win for Hamnet, which has been steadily gaining momentum since winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. With strong support from the Screen Actors Guild, Chloé Zhao’s film could see a significant boost with a win on Sunday.

The likely winner: Hamnet
The fun pick: Sinners

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Here’s a look at some of the films featuring these actors: Joel Edgerton appeared in Train Dreams, Oscar Isaac in Frankenstein, Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine, Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent, and Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere.

Beyond the main Timmy vs. Leo competition, the supporting actor race is less intense. Isaac, Johnson, and White are unlikely to win an Oscar, and Edgerton is struggling to stay in contention. While Michael B. Jordan stars in a blockbuster film, his performance isn’t likely to earn him an award. Wagner Moura, who has already won several pre-Oscar awards and is benefiting from strong support from the Brazilian voters – who now make up the largest national group of Academy members – seems like the stronger contender.

The likely winner: Wagner Moura
The fun pick: Wagner Moura

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Here’s a list of actresses and the titles of the films they’re associated with: Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love, Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value, Julia Roberts in After the Hunt, Tessa Thompson in Hedda, and Eva Victor in Sorry, Baby.

We can discuss whether Jessie Buckley’s strong on-screen presence matches her personality later, but for now, at the Golden Globes, she’s likely to win, as the competition isn’t very strong. Of the other nominees, only Renate Reinsve seems to have a real chance at an Oscar nomination as well.

Jessie Buckley is the most probable winner, but Jennifer Lawrence would be a delightfully entertaining choice. Everyone loves seeing Jennifer Lawrence give a fun and unpredictable acceptance speech!

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Blue Moon
Bugonia
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
One Battle After Another

Warner Bros. insists the decision to categorize One Battle After Another as a comedy at the Golden Globes was purely coincidental. However, it conveniently benefits the film, which is already considered a strong contender for the Oscar. Just like with Buckley in the drama actress category, all the attention is on the other nominees. They should skip the pretense and announce the winner now – why make Paul Thomas Anderson wait until the very end of the night? Let him relax!

Okay, so if I had to put money on it, I’d say One Battle After Another is almost guaranteed to win. Honestly, if anything else takes the prize, I’d be absolutely stunned – it would be the biggest upset of the whole awards season so far!

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Here’s a list of actors and their corresponding pseudonyms used in a specific project:

Timothée Chalamet is credited as Marty Supreme.
George Clooney is credited as Jay Kelly.
Leonardo DiCaprio is credited as One Battle After Another.
Ethan Hawke is credited as Blue Moon.
Lee Byung-hun is credited as No Other Choice.
Jesse Plemons is credited as Bugonia.

Many experts still don’t think Leonardo DiCaprio has a strong chance of winning another Best Actor Oscar, but history suggests they might be wrong. In the last three years, the films that won Best Picture – Anora, Oppenheimer, and Everything Everywhere All at Once – also featured a lead actor who took home an award. However, at the Golden Globes, where popularity and hype are key, Timothée Chalamet seems unbeatable. The big question is, which version of Chalamet will we see if he wins – the confident one from the press tour, or the more reserved one campaigning for an Oscar?

The likely winner: Timothée Chalamet
The fun pick: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Here’s a list of actors and the projects they’re associated with: Rose Byrne is in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good, Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue, Chase Infiniti in One Battle After Another, Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee, and Emma Stone in Bugonia.

Rose Byrne is generating a lot of awards buzz. She’s been winning most of the critic’s choice awards, so it’s likely she’ll win at the Golden Globes as well, since that award is also decided by critics. However, because of how the awards are divided by genre, we won’t see her compete directly against Carey Mulligan until the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Rose Byrne is currently the frontrunner. Amanda Seyfried or Emma Stone could bring a playful energy to the Best Actress competition.

Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture

Here’s a look at some upcoming films and the actors starring in them: Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein, Paul Mescal in Hamnet, Sean Penn also in One Battle After Another, Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly, and Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value.

The big question in this year’s supporting actor category is whether the two actors from Oppenheimer will split the vote. While del Toro easily won over smaller awards groups, the Critics Choice Awards – with a larger voting base – went to Elordi, suggesting a split is possible. The Golden Globes have a smaller voting body, so del Toro might maintain his lead. However, keep an eye on international voters, who could favor Skarsgård as the more prestigious, European choice.

The likely winner: Benicio del Toro
The fun pick: Stellan Skarsgård

Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture

Here’s a list of actors and their respective films: Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine, Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value, Ariana Grande in Wicked: For Good, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas also in Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan in Weapons, and Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another.

This award category is very unpredictable, and we’re hoping the Golden Globes will help clarify things. It seems likely that either Teyana Taylor will win for her work in OBAA, or the Globes will follow the Critics Choice Awards and choose Amy Madigan, who has surprisingly become a frontrunner in this uncertain race.

The likely winner: Teyana Taylor
The fun pick: Amy Madigan

Best Director – Motion Picture

Here are some upcoming projects from acclaimed directors: Paul Thomas Anderson is working on One Battle After Another, Ryan Coogler on Sinners, Guillermo del Toro on Frankenstein, Jafar Panahi on It Was Just an Accident, Joachim Trier on Sentimental Value, and Chloé Zhao on Hamnet.

It’s natural to question how much the OBAA’s Best Picture win will influence other awards, but most people agree Anderson is very likely to win both Best Picture and Best Director. This feels like his film and his time to shine.

Paul Thomas Anderson is the most probable winner. Ryan Coogler would be a more surprising, but exciting, choice, and a win for him could indicate that Sinners might unexpectedly compete with One Battle.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Hamnet

This category features a very similar group of nominees to the Best Director race, with Marty Supreme taking the place of Frankenstein. However, OBAA‘s chances of winning here aren’t as strong as in other categories, because the Golden Globes often use the Screenplay award to recognize a wider range of films. While Hamnet might not win the Drama prize against Sinners, it could very well win here. It’s a clearly well-written, literary script, much like last year’s Globe winner, Conclave.

The likely winner: Hamnet
The fun pick: It Was Just an Accident

Best Song – Motion Picture

I’ve been really into some amazing songs lately! I’m loving “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash, and “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good. “Golden” by KPop Demon Hunters is stuck in my head, and “I Lied to You” from Sinners is so powerful. I also keep replaying “Train Dreams” – the song and the album share the same name, which is cool! And I can’t forget “No Place Like Home,” another beautiful track from Wicked: For Good.

Early in the year, “Sinners” seemed like a sure winner for the best original song award. However, the summer belonged to “KPop Demon Hunters,” which became incredibly popular on both Netflix and the Billboard charts. Now, it looks like “Golden” is the likely frontrunner to win.

The likely winner: “Golden”
The fun pick: “I Lied to You”

Best Score – Motion Picture

Frankenstein
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Sirāt
Hamnet
F1

Ludwig Göransson’s powerfully blues-inspired music is a highlight of the film, and he’s now the likely favorite to win the Oscar after recently receiving a Critics Choice award. This is a category where fans of the film, Sinners, have a good chance of seeing a win.

The most probable winner is Sinners. For a fun choice, consider Sirāt, a film featuring desert raves after the apocalypse, complete with energetic dance music.

Best Motion Picture – Animated

Arco
Demon Slayer
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

A possible challenge for KPop Demon Hunters is the recent difficulty Hollywood animated films have faced. However, it’s unclear if any other film this year has the same creative spark as Flow or Boy in the Heron. Fortunately, the film’s international popularity should reassure Golden Globe voters about its broad appeal.

It looks like KPop Demon Hunters is the frontrunner. For a fun choice, consider Little Amélie or The Character of Rain – its Oscar nomination has sparked some funny comments about the title. We recommend watching it as a double feature with The Chronology of Water!

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab

Okay, let’s talk about the Neon Derby, this year’s indie film race. It’s a bit unusual – five out of the six nominees come from the same label! Right now, Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident feels like the frontrunner. It really impressed at the Globes, scoring nominations for Picture, Director, and Screenplay – a pretty big deal. Sentimental Value was also in the running, but Accident seems to have gained some momentum. I was wondering if the recent events in Venezuela might give the Brazilian thriller The Secret Agent a boost, given its political themes, but unfortunately, that news came out too late to impact the voting. It’s definitely something to keep in mind as the season progresses, though.

The likely winner: It Was Just an Accident
The fun pick: The Secret Agent

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – Motion Picture

Here’s a list of upcoming or recently announced titles: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Mission Impossible — The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, and Zootopia 2.

I don’t think Sinners will win Best Drama at the Golden Globes. In the two years this award has been given, the Globes have tended to use it to honor the most popular Best Picture contender, a film they often ignore when it comes to the major awards. We saw this with Barbie and Wicked: Part One, and considering the less enthusiastic response to Ryan Coogler’s film from international voters, I expect the same thing will happen to Sinners.

The most probable winner is Sinners. However, KPop Demon Hunters is a wildcard pick – if they win, it will raise even more questions about the purpose of this award.

I’ll admit, I have fond memories of the Golden Globes being delightfully… messy. While the Hollywood Foreign Press Association definitely had its issues, they always seemed to genuinely enjoy giving out awards. Looking back, they had a knack for recognizing shows that others overlooked – things like The Affair, The Kominsky Method, Mozart in the Jungle, and even Nip/Tuck were Globe winners. And they weren’t afraid to celebrate actors in unexpected roles – remember Kelsey Grammer’s work in Boss, Teri Hatcher on Desperate Housewives, or Matt LeBlanc in Episodes? Those were some choices!

The Golden Globes TV awards have improved significantly after a change in ownership and voting members. Previously, the winners were often just repeats from the Emmy Awards, but the Globes used to have an advantage by recognizing shows that hadn’t yet qualified for Emmys. This year, however, the nominees largely consist of shows and performances already honored elsewhere. While a few nominees still represent the Globes’ traditionally unpredictable choices, they face tough competition from Emmy winners like Adolescence, The Pitt, and The Studio. —Joe Reid

Television

Best Television Series — Drama

The Diplomat
The Pitt
Pluribus
Severance
Slow Horses
The White Lotus

All of these shows were nominated for Emmys in September. Notably, shows like The Diplomat and Slow Horses were recognized for their latest seasons, even though the Emmys previously nominated them for earlier seasons. The Pitt surprisingly won the Emmy, beating out Severance. While Severance could still be a contender, the fact that The Pitt is currently airing its second season suggests voters might strongly favor it. The Golden Globes would likely have chosen Pluribus – it’s the only new show in this group and comes from Vince Gilligan, a director often recognized by awards shows. However, the Globes haven’t historically been as enthusiastic about shows on Apple TV+.

The likely winner: The Pitt
The fun pick: Pluribus

Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
The Studio

This year’s Emmy nominations are noticeably lacking in fresh comedies. If the show Nobody Wants This couldn’t win last year when it was first gaining attention, it’s hard to see how it’ll win now, especially competing with The Studio. The Studio was already considered a strong contender for Emmys because of its focus on the inner workings of Hollywood, but it feels like an even bigger frontrunner for the Golden Globes. After all, one episode specifically highlighted a chaotic night at the Globes, so someone better be sure to thank Sal Sapperstein during the ceremony!

Most likely to win: The Studio. As for a fun choice… maybe Only Murders in the Building? Honestly, there aren’t any particularly fun contenders this year.

Best Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Adolescence
All Her Fault
The Beast in Me
Black Mirror
Dying for Sex
The Girlfriend

The Golden Globes have recently seemed to be following the Emmys too closely, and this is most noticeable in their limited series/anthology choices. There’s a lot of exciting new crime and drama, and it would be refreshing to see a show like All Her Fault or The Beast in Me recognized alongside more serious, critically acclaimed programs, even just for one night. Amazon’s The Girlfriend, a potentially sensational story about a complex mother-in-law dynamic, would have been a classic Globes choice. Instead, it seems they’ll likely favor another well-respected, thought-provoking show about societal issues affecting young boys.

The likely winner: Adolescence
The fun pick: The Girlfriend

Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Here’s a list of actors and the shows they’re known for: Sterling K. Brown in Paradise, Diego Luna in Andor, Gary Oldman in Slow Horses, Mark Ruffalo in Task, Adam Scott in Severance, and Noah Wyle in The Pitt.

Noah Wyle’s Emmy win feels like the right call, and he certainly earned it with his compelling and honest performance in The Pitt. However, he’s already been recognized with an Emmy – does he really need a Golden Globe too? It would be nice to see the award go to someone like Gary Oldman, who deserves recognition for his excellent work in Slow Horses, or Mark Ruffalo, as a way to acknowledge Task despite it not quite reaching the success of Mare of Easttown. It’s great the Golden Globes nominated Diego Luna for Andor, and it would be even better if they awarded him the win.

The likely winner: Noah Wyle
The fun pick: Diego Luna

Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama

Here’s a list of actors and the TV shows they’re known for: Kathy Bates in Matlock, Britt Lower in Severance, Helen Mirren in MobLand, Bella Ramsey in The Last of Us, Keri Russell in The Diplomat, and Rhea Seehorn in Pluribus.

Britt Lower unexpectedly won an Emmy over veteran Kathy Bates, and many are wondering if Bates will get her chance at the Golden Globes. If she wins, she’d be the first actress from a CBS show to take home the award since Julianna Margulies in 2009. However, I believe this is the category where it makes sense to favor the newest contender. Pluribus is generating a lot of excitement, Rhea Seehorn delivers an outstanding performance, and currently, there’s more public support for her than for any other nominee in this category.

The likely winner: Rhea Seehorn
The fun pick: Rhea Seehorn

Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Here’s a look at some notable actors and their recent projects: Adam Brody starred in Nobody Wants This, Steve Martin and Martin Short both appeared in Only Murders in the Building, Glen Powell was in Chad Powers, Seth Rogen worked on The Studio, and Jeremy Allen White is known for The Bear.

Seeing Glen Powell, a Golden Globe winner, in Chad Powers reminds me of when I used to confidently predict the winners. It’s a classic setup: a rising star like Powell in a show that’s getting some buzz, but also feels lighthearted and features a funny disguise. Fifteen years ago, that would have been a guaranteed win. However, I’m not so sure the new Golden Globes will be as open to surprising choices, especially with someone like Seth Rogen nominated for a show based on a real, slightly awkward moment at the awards.

The likely winner: Seth Rogen
The fun pick: Glen Powell

Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Here’s a list of actresses and the TV shows they’re known for: Kristen Bell in Nobody Wants This, Ayo Edebiri in The Bear, Selena Gomez in Only Murders in the Building, Natasha Lyonne in Poker Face, Jenna Ortega in Wednesday, and Jean Smart in Hacks.

This award category feels a bit underwhelming, and it’s not just because shows like The Bear aren’t getting the same praise they once did. Natasha Lyonne is nominated for a series that’s been cancelled, and nobody seems to be talking about the new season of Jenna Ortega’s Wednesday. While Selena Gomez deserves a Golden Globe for Only Murders in the Building, a win now would feel strange, though not necessarily unwelcome! Jean Smart won last year, and while repeating that win would be predictable, none of the other nominees seem quite as deserving.

The likely winner: Jean Smart
The fun pick: Selena Gomez

Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Here’s a list of actors and the films they’re known for: Jacob Elordi in The Narrow Road to the Deep North, Paul Giamatti in Black Mirror, Stephen Graham in Adolescence, Charlie Hunnam in Monster: The Ed Gein Story, Jude Law in Black Rabbit, and Matthew Rhys in The Beast in Me.

Ryan Murphy has a remarkable track record, with his shows winning 14 Golden Globe Awards over the past two decades – plus a lifetime achievement award in 2023. Given this history, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see Charlie Hunnam win a Golden Globe for his role as Ed Gein in a Murphy series, or Jude Law recognized for his performance in Black Rabbit. They might even have extended the positive attention Jacob Elordi received for Frankenstein to award him for The Narrow Road to the Deep North. However, it seems likely the voters were influenced by Stephen Graham’s Emmy win for portraying a parent grappling with personal struggles in Adolescence – a similar theme to the internal battles Charlie Hunnam’s character faced as Ed Gein.

The likely winner: Stephen Graham
The fun pick: Charlie Hunnam

Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Here’s a list of actresses and the books they’ve recently read or are associated with: Claire Danes with The Beast in Me, Rashida Jones with Black Mirror, Amanda Seyfried with Long Bright River, Sarah Snook with All Her Fault, Michelle Williams with Dying for Sex, and Robin Wright with The Girlfriend.

This award category is wide open, as last year’s Emmy winner, Cristin Milioti (from The Penguin), was also nominated for a Golden Globe. Michelle Williams delivers a bold performance in Dying for Sex and likely finished second to Milioti at the Emmys. Amanda Seyfried is an Oscar hopeful with two nominations: for The Testament of Ann Lee in the film categories, and as a Philadelphia police officer searching for her sister in Long Bright River. However, the race will likely come down to Claire Danes and Sarah Snook, both of whom have a strong history with TV awards. Danes, a four-time Golden Globe winner, plays an author who suspects her neighbor of murder. Snook, a two-time Globe winner, gives a powerful performance as the mother of a kidnapped child in All Her Fault. Snook recently won a Critics Choice award, suggesting she has the most momentum heading into the Globes.

The likely winner: Sarah Snook
The fun pick: Sarah Snook

Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series — Musical-Comedy or Drama

Here’s a list of actors and the shows they’re known for: Owen Cooper from Adolescence, Billy Crudup from The Morning Show, Walton Goggins and Jason Isaacs both from The White Lotus, and Tramell Tillman and Ashley Walters from Severance and Adolescence, respectively.

This year’s nominees aren’t exactly surprising. Cooper and Tillman already won Emmys recently, and Goggins, Isaacs, and Walters were all up for awards as well. While Crudup has twice won Emmys for The Morning Show, he’s never received a Golden Globe for the role, making him a potentially interesting winner, especially considering a standout performance in Jay Kelly was overlooked. However, it’s likely Owen Cooper, a strong contender at just 16 years old, will win this award.

The likely winner: Owen Cooper
The fun pick: Billy Crudup

Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series — Musical-Comedy or Drama

Here’s a list of actors and the projects they’re known for: Carrie Coon in The White Lotus, Erin Doherty in Adolescence, Hannah Einbinder in Hacks, Catherine O’Hara in The Studio, Parker Posey in The White Lotus, and Aimee Lou Wood in The White Lotus.

This supporting actress category feels very familiar – it’s full of recent Emmy winners and nominees, like Einbinder and Doherty, plus names like Coon, Posey, Wood, and O’Hara. Honestly, Carrie Coon is always amazing, and it’s starting to feel strange that she hasn’t won a big award yet. The same goes for her White Lotus co-star, Parker Posey – she hasn’t even won an Independent Spirit Award! Either of them winning would be fantastic. I could also see Catherine O’Hara getting a win for The Studio; the show really seems to be campaigning for her. But I think this one will go to either Doherty, if Adolescence sweeps the awards, or Einbinder, maybe as a nod to her incredibly brave Emmy speech. That speech – “Go Birds, fuck ICE, and free Palestine” – feels just as powerful and important today as it did before.

The likely winner: Hannah Einbinder
The fun pick: Carrie Coon

Best Performance in Stand-up Comedy on Television

Here’s a look at recent comedy specials: Ricky Gervais with Ricky Gervais: Mortality, Brett Goldstein with Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life, Kevin Hart with Kevin Hart: Acting My Age, Bill Maher with Bill Maher: Is Anyone Else Seeing This?, Kumail Nanjiani with Kumail Nanjiani: Night Thoughts, and Sarah Silverman with Sarah Silverman: PostMortem.

You’re hearing the term “nightmare blunt rotation” a lot lately, and this year’s nominees are truly a tough group! (Kumail Nanjiani is clearly a strong contender.) This award is relatively new – only three years old – and it feels like we might have the first repeat winner. Ricky Gervais won this award two years ago, which made sense given his previous nominations and wins, plus his experience hosting the show. Both of his winning specials were on Netflix, as was last year’s winner, Ali Wong. If that pattern continues, Kevin Hart or Sarah Silverman will likely be Gervais’ biggest competition. Interestingly, of all six nominees, only Kumail Nanjiani’s special made Vulture’s list of the best stand-up specials of the year – and it was ranked number one!

The likely winner: Ricky Gervais
The fun pick: Kumail Nanjiani

2026-01-09 23:02