Crypto Bettors Lay 17% Odds on Donald Trump in Jail Before Election Day

As an experienced analyst, I have closely followed the developments in the financial markets, including the growing interest in prediction markets like Polymarket. The recent surge in betting activity surrounding Donald Trump’s potential jail sentence before the U.S. presidential election is a fascinating development.

As a crypto investor following the news closely, I’ve noticed that some market participants are placing bets on Polymarket, an odds platform, giving Donald Trump a 17% chance of being incarcerated prior to the U.S. presidential election in November.

A New York jury found Donald Trump guilty on Thursday for all 34 charges brought against him. These charges involved allegedly falsifying business records, making Trump the first former U.S. president to face conviction in a court of law. Despite his not-guilty plea, Trump vowed to continue fighting, as reported by the BBC.

Based on the data, there was heightened transactionality on Friday in the market centered around the question “Will Trump be in jail before the election?” This market emerged in January and has accumulated approximately $900,000 worth of wagers from crypto enthusiasts.

If Trump is detained for a minimum of 48 hours straight in a jail or prison between January 5th and 11:59 p.m. ET on November 5th, the market will affirm with a “Yes.” In all other cases, it will respond with a “No.”

In European time, the probability of “Yes” is priced at 17 cents, while “No” is priced at 85 cents on the Polymarket platform. The true outcome’s value will be equal to $1 once the event concludes. (The sum may not equal $1 due to market fluctuations and other pricing factors.)

The chances of Trump actually going to jail before the election remain slim, Reuters reported.

As a crypto investor closely following Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, I noticed a significant shift in the odds on Thursday. Trump’s probability of winning the presidency dipped by 2 percentage points, now sitting at 54%. Conversely, Biden’s chances improved, climbing from 38% to 40%.