As a long-term Bitcoin investor with over three years of experience in this space, I find the recent trend among Bitcoin holders fascinating. Based on the data presented by CryptoQuant and Glassnode, it seems that there is a clear divergence in behavior between new and old Bitcoin holders.


As an analyst, I’ve noticed a consistent pattern among long-term Bitcoin investors: they often sell a portion of their holdings during prolonged periods of price growth, which usually lasts beyond the one to two-year mark. This trend was evident from early 2024 up until April.

As a long-term Bitcoin investor, I’ve noticed an intriguing trend. Specifically, those of us who have held Bitcoin in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) for over three years continue to amass more BTC. This behavior suggests a robustly bullish outlook among us long-term investors.

Diverging Behavior Among Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

Based on recent data from CryptoQuant’s analysis, more than half of Bitcoin’s entire stockpile has been stationary on the blockchain for over twelve months. This observation underscores the steadfast belief among long-term holders regarding Bitcoin’s potential worth, irrespective of market volatility.

As a long-term Bitcoin investor, I’ve noticed an interesting shift as the price bounced back from its correction to hit $56,000 once again. The 1-year and 2-year holder groups, who had previously been selling off their coins during distribution phases, have now transitioned into a holding phase. This change indicates renewed faith in Bitcoin’s upward trend and signals that they believe the digital currency is here to stay and will continue to grow in value.

As an analyst, I’d interpret the current technical situation of the asset as being at a pivotal point, where it’s encountering significant support levels for potential reversal. Looking deeper into the long-term holding patterns and essential on-chain indicators, as reported by CryptoQuant, reveals a prevailing bullish sentiment among investors.

Back in late 2023, a specific cohort of long-term Bitcoin investors, who had been offloading some of their Bitcoin holdings for several months, have recently resumed purchasing the cryptocurrency. According to Glassnode’s analysis.

Long-term bitcoin investors, as indicated by the market intelligence report, have shifted from offloading their assets to buying more over the last week. This trend implies that substantial price fluctuations could potentially prompt further selling among these investors.

If CryptoQuant’s analysis is correct, a drop below the daily Ichimoku cloud may change investors’ outlook to bearish, possibly causing the price to fall back towards $64,000.

When Next Peak?

In every bull market run, Long-Term Holders (LTH) often dispose of some of their Bitcoin holdings as prices reach new peaks, a trend seen in the ongoing cycle based on research from IntoTheBlock.

Typically, the amount of coins held by long-term holders (LTHs) reaches its minimum following a market peak. In the 2017 bull run, this occurrence happened approximately 270 days after LTHs began selling, aligning with the market cycle top.

As a researcher studying the current cryptocurrency market cycle, I’ve discovered that during the previous bull run, there were two distinct peaks. The first peak emerged approximately 210 days following the initiation of selling by Large Holder Transactions (LTHs). Conversely, the second peak was observed around 410 days after their initial balance reduction. In our current scenario, LTHs have started distributing their holdings once more, with late December 2023 pinpointed as the beginning of this phase.

Based on historical trends, I estimate that the next crypto market peak may arise approximately 140 to 260 days following the significant selling by Large Cap Holders (LTHs). This rough timeline suggests a potential peak period falling between October 2024 and March 2025.

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2024-05-29 23:34