As a researcher with a background in cryptocurrencies and finance, I have closely observed Bitcoin’s price movements for the past decade. I have seen how the bear and bull cycles have dominated its performances, with halvings acting as catalysts for new bull markets. However, the ongoing cycle starting in mid-2023 has been an exception to this rule.
As a seasoned crypto investor, I’ve observed that Bitcoin‘s price behavior over the last decade has been characterized by recurring bear and bull markets. These market swings have significantly influenced the cryptocurrency’s overall value trajectory.
The Bitcoin halving is typically considered the trigger for a bull market’s beginning, while the two years leading up to each occurrence are often characterized by bearish trends.
Current Cycle
During the current trend, which began in mid-2023 and gained momentum due to anticipation over the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US, things have taken a different turn. Once these ETFs were made available early in 2024, Bitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high from 2021, reaching nearly $74,000 – marking the first instance of hitting a new peak prior to a halving event.
As a crypto investor, I believe that the introduction of Bitcoin-related products by esteemed institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity serves as a significant validation of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset. Their entry into the market signifies a level of acceptance and recognition that was previously lacking, and I view it as a positive development for the future of this digital currency.
In the initial stages, there was a remarkable surge in inflows, causing Bitcoin’s price to soar. Although the demand has stabilized somewhat recently, Bitcoin’s value continues to fluctuate within the range of $60,000 and $70,000.
As a researcher studying the financial markets, I’ve come across some intriguing news: there are whispers that the US Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in the coming months. Historically, such moves have been seen as positive for riskier investments like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
As a seasoned crypto investor, I’d like to share my perspective on the recent Bitcoin halving. Although some experts may argue that the impact of each reward reduction is waning over time, it’s essential to acknowledge the reality of the situation. Specifically, the production of fresh Bitcoins has decreased significantly and now stands at approximately 450 BTC per day. This number pales in comparison to the average acquisition rate by institutional investors such as ETFs, whales, and retail investors.
When Will it End?
Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, claimed that Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run has Bitcoin’s actual market cap expanding more rapidly than its realized market cap. In simpler terms, he presented a graph indicating that the value of every unspent output (UTXO) in the Bitcoin network is increasing faster than the current market evaluation of those same UTXOs based on their last transaction price.
As a seasoned crypto investor, I’ve observed that bull markets usually persist for around two years. Consequently, considering this pattern, we might expect the current bull market to come to an end within the next eleven months or so.
#Bitcoin is in the middle of the bull cycle.
The market value of the company is expanding at a quicker pace than its current earnings suggest, an pattern that usually persists for approximately two years.
If this pattern continues, the bull cycle might end by April 2025.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 17, 2024
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2024-05-18 11:18