Tesla was the first company to scale electric vehicles and bring them to the mainstream.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that Tesla’s journey has come with its fair share of hurdles. Detractors argue that Elon Musk, the company’s visionary founder, poses a hindrance to Tesla’s triumph due to his unpredictable behavior and intense preoccupation with updating his social media account, previously known as Twitter.

Currently, Tesla is grappling with significant difficulties. Its sales and profits are declining while competition, notably from China, intensifies. In response, Tesla is implementing drastic cost-reduction measures such as workforce reductions and streamlined car production. Amidst these market pressures, Tesla continues to grapple with leadership and strategic challenges, causing apprehension regarding the company’s future trajectory and resilience.

Nevertheless, the market thinks Musk will likely stay on.

As an analyst, I would describe it as follows: On the regulated U.S. prediction market platform, Kalshi, the probability shares for the question “Will Elon Musk step down as Tesla CEO before the end of this year?” are currently priced at 12 cents. This implies that investors believe there is a 12% chance of a leadership change in Tesla by December 31st. If this prediction comes true, each share will pay out $1; otherwise, it will return nothing.

As a researcher, I’ve analyzed the market expectations and Tesla’s delivery numbers. The consensus in the market is that Tesla deliveries are holding steady. There is approximately a 52% probability that Tesla will surpass the benchmark of 400,000 vehicles shipped this quarter, which represents an improvement over the previous quarter when it delivered around 386,000 units – a significant increase from the “disaster” figure as labeled by analysts.

Meanwhile, nothing is going to get between Musk and his X account.

As a crypto investor following the activity on Polymarket, I’ve noticed that there’s ongoing prediction market action regarding the number of posts a certain individual may make on their platform between May 3 and May 10. The majority of bettors estimate this number to be between 75 and 104, with some more optimistic outliers predictting up to 120 posts.

As a researcher investigating the potential relationship between Elon Musk’s tweets and the stock performance of his companies, I am eagerly seeking a method to establish such a correlation. If only I could devise a means to quantify this impact in a straightforward and natural way.

Trump Faces Likely Conviction

Ex-President Donald Trump is currently engaged in four ongoing legal disputes while campaigning for another term in office. It’s widely anticipated that he could be found guilty in these cases, but it’s unlikely that any conviction would result in him serving jail time before the election.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been following the news closely and I can tell you that there’s ongoing legal proceedings against Donald Trump. He is currently facing charges for allegedly falsifying business records in connection to a payment made to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign. The purpose of this transaction, according to the allegations, was to hide an affair and prevent any potential scandal from affecting his election bid.

I, as an analyst, would rephrase that as follows: Beyond the ongoing investigations, President Trump is dealing with legal issues concerning accusations of collusion in attempts to alter the outcome of the 2020 presidential election following the Capitol Hill riot. Additionally, there are allegations regarding mishandling of classified documents and a racketeering case in Georgia that includes a controversial phone call to the state’s chief election official, aiming to unearth an additional 11,780 votes.

This situation would normally be extremely grave and lead to imprisonment for most people. However, when it comes to Teflon Don, the outcome is likely to be different.

Currently, Polymarket bettors give a 76% chance that Trump will be convicted before election day.

The percentage has increased significantly since late March, when the contract was signed and the Trump hush money trial began, with a figure of 57% at that time.

It’s unlikely that he will serve any jail time, a viewpoint shared by many legal experts. However, there has been a subtle shift in the betting community’s perspective on this matter recently.

Currently, it’s estimated that there is a 17% likelihood the former President will serve jail time before the upcoming election.

As a researcher examining the potential outcomes of the various charges against Trump, I’ve discovered that possible consequences range from monetary fines and probation to more severe penalties, such as prison time. This harsher sentence could be imposed specifically for offenses related to mishandling classified documents and the RICO charges in Georgia. However, legal experts caution that imprisonment would be a last resort due to the logistical complications and far-reaching implications of incarcerating a former president who might also be an election contender.

But will any of this benefit incumbent president Joe Biden?

Probably not.

As a crypto investor closely following the Polymarket’s general election market, I’ve noticed an intriguing shift in the past week. Trump’s chances of winning, as represented by this contract with over $120 million in bets, have risen from 44% to currently stand at 47%. Meanwhile, Biden’s prospects have remained unchanged at 53%.

CFTC Meeting to Discuss Political Betting

As a researcher, I’ve come across some intriguing news: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has scheduled a meeting on May 10 to deliberate over a possible rule change. This proposed regulation could potentially prohibit wagers based on political outcomes.

The legal dispute between Kalshi and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is currently unfolding. Kalshi is filing a lawsuit against the CFTC for denying its application to list derivatives enabling wagers on elections. This court case follows in the footsteps of Clarke v. CFTC, where the Fifth Circuit Court made a ruling that went against the CFTC’s decision to revoke PredictIt’s exemption letter, which could impact Kalshi’s aspirations to create extensive political betting markets within the United States.

As a crypto investor, I’m closely monitoring the upcoming contentious U.S. election and the growing interest in legalizing prediction markets within the country. Platforms like Kalshi are eager to facilitate this trend, given the significant financial interest at play. With over $120 million invested in Polymarket’s election contracts, it’s clear that the market demand is strong for such offerings.

In the 2016 and 2020 elections, as well as the predicted 2022 “red wave,” pollsters were off the mark, underestimating the support for Donald Trump. Given the substantial size of the Polymarket pot, one might expect a higher level of accuracy in election polling compared to past years.

It seems that this money isn’t from America since Polymarket is restricted from dealing with US individuals due to an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Could the figures vary if we’re talking about a Kalshi contract instead?

Beginning this Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, the CFTC hearing is scheduled to commence. For those who wish to attend virtually, they can tune in via cftc.gov or the CFTC’s YouTube channel.