Will Bitcoin Soar or Crash? Analysts Are Confused as 2026 Unfolds! 🤔💰

by

Since the summer of 2025, a curious transformation has unfolded in the realm of Bitcoin, revealing an astonishing tendency to slip away from the relentless embrace of the global M2 money supply. By the dawn of 2026, this phenomenon has blossomed into a distinct and palpable separation.

Once upon a time, the historical bond between these two elements served as fertile ground for many a bullish prophecy. But now, analysts find themselves in a veritable quagmire, grappling with the implications of this new reality for the year ahead. It’s as if they’ve stumbled upon a riddle wrapped in an enigma, and all they can do is scratch their heads in bewilderment.

Analysts Are Torn Between Their Theories on Bitcoin and Global M2: A Comedy of Confusion!

In a January missive, Fidelity Digital Assets maintains its unwavering faith in a harmonious relationship between the M2 money supply and the price of Bitcoin. Because who doesn’t love a little optimism?

They argue that Bitcoin’s bull cycles have a delightful tendency to coincide with moments when M2 decides to throw a party and accelerate. Our beloved Bitcoin, with its charming scarcity, tends to hoard excess capital like a squirrel preparing for winter, much more effectively than other assets.

“As a new monetary easing cycle has begun globally and with the Fed’s QT program ending, it is likely that we will see this growth rate continue to the upside throughout 2026, a positive catalyst for bitcoin’s price.” – Fidelity reported, probably while sipping their lattes.

Supporters of this cheery outlook point out that gold and silver have recently donned their inflation-hedging capes, absorbing the worries of investors. They confidently assert that the revival of money printing across nations has become a key driving force behind Bitcoin’s ascent.

But hold your horses! Analyst MartyParty has taken a bold leap into the fray, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price may soon rebound, catching up to the growth of the M2 money supply, albeit with a cheeky 50-day delay. Talk about a dramatic entrance!

“Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity – Lagged 50 days. M2 says we bounce here – Jan 12th.” – MartyParty, ever the optimist, predicted.

Yet, as the plot thickens, Fidelity’s chart reveals a disconcerting truth: Bitcoin’s year-on-year growth and Global M2 year-on-year growth have wandered off into different directions over the past year. In fact, their divergence has widened alarmingly as we stepped into 2026. Bitcoin is sulking with negative YoY growth, while Global M2 struts around proudly, boasting more than 10% growth. Oh, the irony!

Observations from the enigmatic Mister Crypto suggest that moments when Bitcoin’s price chooses to break free from the M2 growth tend to herald the arrival of a market top. These phases often lead to a bear market that lingers like an unwanted guest for two to four years. Isn’t that just delightful?

Meanwhile, analyst Charles Edwards throws his hat into the ring with a completely divergent theory. He posits that 2025 was the year when the lurking specter of quantum computing began to cast its shadow over Bitcoin’s encryption, thus explaining this peculiar decoupling from M2.

“This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows. Why? 2025 was the first year Bitcoin entered the Quantum Event Horizon. The timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin. Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly.” – Charles Edwards said, probably while gazing into his crystal ball.

In conclusion, the schism among analysts mirrors the intricate tapestry of the Bitcoin market. The optimistic camp clings to traditional historical models, buoyed by Fed rate cuts and money printing, while the pessimistic camp frets over unprecedented technological risks looming on the horizon.

As Bitcoin strides into 2026, it finds itself facing a host of risks, from the treacherous yen carry trade to the ominous possibility of a third world war, as global economic and geopolitical landscapes grow ever more convoluted. Who knew crypto could be so dramatic?

However, fear not! These risks do not necessarily spell doom for Bitcoin. Rather, they may present opportunities for daring investors who continue to believe that, against all odds, Bitcoin will persist as a long-term store of value, just as it has demonstrated through its storied 15-year history. Let the adventure begin! 🚀

Read More

2026-01-13 17:34