Why Bettors are Flocking to Ariana Grande for the Oscars: Shocking Odds Revealed!

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Office Oscar pools can be ruthless – it often takes a flawlessly predicted ballot to outsmart your colleagues. Instead of contributing five dollars to the common pot, or backing a few underdogs using the online sportsbook DraftKings with a dollar, you might find success with just one accurate guess. However, this could result in profits only if you reside in one of the eight states where DraftKings’ Oscars bets are legally available.

Over the past ten years, restrictions on internet gambling have become less strict, allowing companies like DraftKings to grow and enter several regions. Recently, they started accepting bets for the Oscars, with a significant increase in users predicting “The Favourite’s” director Yorgos Lanthimos would win best director towards the end of the season. Unfortunately for those who placed their bets, Alfonso Cuarón ended up winning for “Roma,” resulting in losses for many.

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Online gambling regulations have loosened over the past decade, enabling companies such as DraftKings to broaden their reach into various territories. They started offering Oscars bets before the 2019 ceremony, attracting a large number of users who believed Yorgos Lanthimos from “The Favourite” would win best director during the final stages of the season. Unfortunately for those who wagered on him, Alfonso Cuarón won for “Roma,” leading to losses among many bettors.

In the past six years, the process of establishing odds at DraftKings has largely remained consistent. These odds are predominantly influenced by the results of events such as the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Traditionally, these ceremonies have served as reliable indicators of where Academy Award voters’ interests tend to lie.

Over the past six years, the method for setting odds at DraftKings has remained similar. The odds are predominantly impacted by the outcomes of award shows like the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards, which have historically given us a clue about where Academy Award voters’ sympathies tend to lie.

Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of race and sports operations, points out that while football allows for extensive analysis using factors like offensive efficiency and revenge games, the Oscars are different because there isn’t as much quantifiable data available. Instead, predictions for the Oscars are typically based on what we observe in other award shows.

However, an unusual factor emerged this year that necessitated DraftKings to modify the odds. The reemergence of racially offensive posts by “Emilia Pérez” star Karla Sofía Gascón sparked a strong industry reaction, casting a dark cloud over what was previously a powerful awards campaign.

According to Avello, it seemed highly unlikely that ‘Emilia Pérez’ would win the Best Picture award, as its chances were roughly estimated at 2%. The film had clearly run out of momentum and appeared to have little appeal for potential backers or viewers.

In a departure from the norm, the Gascón scandal presented an unusual case for analysis. Conversely, another online debate this awards season – concerning Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones’ AI-altered accents for Hungarian dialogue in “The Brutalist” – did not affect the odds set by Avello.

Similarly, Avello points out that publicity surrounding anonymous Oscar ballots and predictions by experts doesn’t cause changes. However, such discussions might influence the actions of bettors. This surge in betting money can lead to adjustments, as demonstrated by this year’s supporting actress category: “Emilia Pérez” star Zoe Saldaña is currently favored heavily, but “Wicked’s” Ariana Grande has become a surprising favorite among bettors, despite not receiving any major awards this season.

According to Avello, Saldaña could handle any controversy regarding that movie quite easily, in my opinion. However, Grande, with odds of six to one, controls about 70% of the funds in this category. When ‘Wicked’ was released, people flocked to the theaters, and bettors are attracted by the value in her line, as it offers a better price.

In the competition for the best costume design, “Wicked” is heavily tipped to take the prize, but “Nosferatu” is considered a long shot at 14-to-1 odds, drawing more bets from punters. On the other hand, Demi Moore’s performance in “The Substance” has catapulted her to the forefront as the favorite for best actress – quite a remarkable shift from her 40-to-1 odds during the autumn months. Interestingly, while “Dune: Part Two” was initially favored at 3-to-1 odds for the best picture category six months ago, those chances have drastically dropped to 100-to-1 now.

Dramatic changes during the awards season are common, yet DraftKings chooses to start betting early in the film season. The Best Picture category usually becomes available in August, with acting and director nominations coming in September. DraftKings focuses on opening these six categories because they tend to draw more interest; even in online gambling, movie stars generate more money and attention compared to those working behind the scenes.

Despite the significance of film awards, they remain relatively insignificant in terms of business for DraftKings. According to Avello, a single football game generates more revenue than all the categories of the Oscars combined.

Each year, Avello notes that more Oscar bets are placed than the previous one, although DraftKings does not reveal exact betting figures. However, this growth pales in comparison to the surge of sports betting popularity. Unlike sports events, which are heavily saturated with gambling advertisements, the Oscars retain a relatively isolated environment. This is because DraftKings, despite its widespread popularity, has yet to be legalized in California, where Hollywood resides. In contrast to venues like MetLife Stadium in New Jersey that host NFL games and feature DraftKings lounges, there is no such establishment within the Dolby Theatre during the Oscars.

“Not now! But you never know,” Avello smiles.

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2025-02-26 22:47