When Bitcoin Plays the Fickle Puppet Master of Fortune

What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Ah, Bitcoin — that restless beast! On Monday, it tiptoed like a cautious ballerina across the slippery stage of markets, up by a mere sliver under 1%, all while the world around it quaked with fresh quarrels — trade tensions puffed up and even India and Pakistan tossing bullets like children with pebbles in a narrow alley. Such is the theater of the absurd.

This digital coin, rising 0.75% in twenty-four hours, has dusted off its boots and stepped into the sunlight — positive for the year, no less! Breaking away like a wild stallion from the dull herd of traditional risk assets. Investors look at the United States, that so-called bulwark of global finance, now with a tint of skepticism. Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index stretches its legs with a 2.2% rise, as if to say, “We too can dance, if only for a moment.”

Stock futures in the U.S. took a brief nap, hinting at a small drop, and gold, poor gold, slipped over 1% after making a 25% sprint earlier this year — investors quietly whispered, “Thanks for the gains, time to cash out.” Then came China, clutching its poker face, denying talks on tariff deals with the U.S. — sending equities into a modest spasm of sell-offs. Nothing like a bit of international drama to spice up your portfolio!

Greg Cipolaro, the global herald of research at NYDIG, put it in his scroll: “Bitcoin has behaved less like a jittery mimic of the U.S. stock market, more as a lone wolf, a value store beyond sovereign chains.”

In truth, Bitcoin’s long memory still clings tightly to U.S. equities, but in the short hustle of days, it begins to masquerade less as a tech stock and more as a politically neutral fortress — the kind of refuge in a storm that even the most cynical trader might salute.

Options and futures whisper that the rally — a nearly 10% rise last week — is but the opening act. Offshore perpetual swap funding rates just dared to peek above zero, but the crowd fancies cautious optimism; aggressive bullish moves remain shy, opting for the safety of call overwriting.

Strange times! Since Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” (which sounds more revolutionary than it felt), Bitcoin’s performance has laughed in the face of U.S. Treasuries, Swiss francs, and even gold. Maybe it’s not just a cryptic coin after all, but a sneaky political chameleon.

The stage remains set for chaos: equity, bond, and currency volatility indices have jumped like frogs startled by a heron. Though expected to mellow a tad, this tempest seems inclined to linger, keeping traders on their toes.

Yet, in all this ballet of numbers and nerves, macro and geopolitical puppeteers pull the strings of flow, warns Jake O., an OTC trader who keeps an eye on the mysterious $110,000 Bitcoin call calendar spreads in June — apparently for those who still wager that the dizzy heights are just a hand’s reach away.

This week promises more whispers and shouts: earnings reports, consumer income revelations, and those always-entertaining nonfarm payrolls. A possible early interest rate cut looms in the background, saluted by none other than Trump himself. Hold your breath and your wallets!

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus will gather the digital hustlers in Toronto from May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK for a 15% pass discount—because who says no to a bargain in crypto chaos?

Day 2 of 4: Web Summit Rio 2025
April 28-29: Blockchain Disrupt 2025 (Dubai)
April 28-29: Staking Summit Dubai
April 29: El Salvador Digital Assets Summit 2025 (San Salvador, El Salvador)
April 29: IFGS 2025 (London)
April 30-May 1: TOKEN2049 (Dubai)
May 6-7: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London)
May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto)
May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto)
May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York)
May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York)
May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto)
May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Meet the modern highwaymen: attackers looted $6 million from Solana’s Loopscale but then, with a face half-smirking, offered to return most of it—for a modest 20% “bounty.” Because why not negotiate a crime like a business deal? 🕵️‍♂️
“We wish to play nicely,” they declared in blockchain Morse code, aiming for a white hat truce — if only Loopscale would release them of all blame and announce their reconciliation, ending the parade of fund tracking and freezing.
The thieves tricked a price-setting puppet, the RateX PT token, swindling over 5.7 million USDC and 1,200 SOL (roughly $180,000 at the time), shaking up 12% of Loopscale’s coffers and bruising the naive depositors of USDC and SOL vaults.
Loopscale responded by closing gates, furloughing loan repayments, but locking others out like a fussy librarian protecting rare books.
After sniffing out the flaw, Loopscale courted the thief: Return 90% of loot ($5.3 million) and keep a 10% cut (~$592,000), a shady bounty with no legal boogeyman chasing your shadow.

Derivatives Positioning

The futures game is massive—$119 billion spread across centralized exchanges like a poker table in Vegas.
Laevitas data dishes out the stars: MemeFi, Virtuals Protocol, Bonk, TRUMP, and Worldcoin all seeing week-over-week fireworks. Because who wouldn’t bet on something named Bonk? 🥳
Binance’s BTC/USDT liquidation battlefield marks $95,124 and $95,691 as danger zones, where $38.7 million and $31.2 million sit like traps for the unwary.
Order book shows sell limits at $97,000 and $100,000 with hundreds of BTC waiting to jump ship. If Bitcoin hits $100k, expect champagne showers or tears—often both.

Market Movements:

BTC is delicately up 0.5% from Friday’s $95,077 (24hrs: +1.19%)
ETH lumbers ahead 0.51% at $1,812.79 (24hrs: +0.35%)
CoinDesk 20 dances up 1.2% to 2,800.46 (24hrs: +2.08%)
Ether staking rate dips 2 bps at 2.95%
BTC funding rate teeters at 0.0027% (annualized 2.9499%) on Binance—those tiny percentages, like whispers in a shouting crowd.

DXY crept up 0.14% at 99.61
Gold patched a +0.31% shine at $3292.7/oz
Silver lost 0.15%, perhaps sulking, at $32.94/oz
Nikkei 225 nudged +0.38% closing at 35839.99
Hang Seng barely blinked, dropping -0.04% at 21971.96
FTSE up 0.36% at 8445.32
Euro Stoxx 50 lifted 0.6% at 5185.19
DJIA closed nearly flat +0.05% at 40,113.50
S&P 500 rallied +0.74% at 5525.21
Nasdaq smiled +1.26% at 17,382.94
S&P/TSX Composite Index sneezed -0.07% at 24,710.5
S&P 40 Latin America added +0.37% at 2,530.65
U.S. 10-year Treasury soared 39 bps at 4.28%
E-mini S&P 500 futures slid 0.16% at 5541
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures eased 0.16% at 19,503
E-mini Dow Jones futures nosedived 0.05% at 40,232 (the market equivalent of slow-motion falling)

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance humbly at 64.20% (-0.11%)
Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio drifting at 0.01907 (-0.21%)
Hashrate struts a seven-day average of 829 EH/s
Hashprice spotlights 49.3 PH/s
Total Fees gobbled up: 5.18 BTC / $486,920
CME Futures Open Interest towering at 143,115 BTC
BTC measured in gold: 28.6 ounces (because why not shiny bars?)
BTC vs gold market cap plays at 8.10%

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin flexed its muscles last week, the strongest rally since a U.S. presidential election spiced up our lives, gaining a robust 10.1% to $93,778.
Having reclaimed its annual open at $93,403, BTC flirts with fate within a precarious weekly order block — a bearish ghost from the past still lurking for a chance to trip it.
For true glory, Bitcoin must seal the deal with a daily close above $94,970 — lest it fall into the dreaded swing failure pattern, a name that sounds like a playground accident but can sting your wallet.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR) finished Friday at $368.71 (+5.24%), inching up to $371 in pre-market like an eager student.
Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at $209.64 (+2.83%), taking a tiny stumble to $209.22 before dawn.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) slipped slightly to C$20.63 (-0.24%) — even stars fall sometimes.
MARA Holdings (MARA) stood firm at $14.30 (+2.07%), dipping a smidge to $14.28.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) sagged at $7.77 (-0.26%), because rebellion is tough.
Core Scientific (CORZ) soared with a 10.36% jump to $8.31, cooling a little to $8.28.
CleanSpark (CLSK) waved hello at $9.01 (+1.69%), rising a bit more to $9.04.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) glimmered at $14.56 (+3.56%).
Semler Scientific (SMLR) strutted at $36.84 (+6.97%), stretching to $37.00.
Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed $45.50 (+0.64%), retreating to $44.75 — the day’s last act.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: a whopping $380 million
Cumulative net flows: $38.40 billion — enough to buy… well, a lot of digital dreams
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million coins, the crypto hoarder’s stash

Spot ETH ETFs:

Daily net flow: $104.1 million, not too shabby
Cumulative net flows: $2.41 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.38 million coins hiding in digital vaults

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Despite a harsh dip to the $74,458 valleys earlier this month, Bitcoin is charging back, on track to claim its largest monthly gain since the frothy echoes of November 2024. Sweet revenge! 🚀