What Makes Us So Sure Sean Baker Can Sneak Anora Into the Oscars?

As a film critic who has spent countless hours watching films and dissecting performances, I must say that Mark Eydelshteyn in “Anora” is indeed reminiscent of a young Russian Timothée Chalamet – his energy, his passion, and his ability to captivate the audience are undeniable. However, if one expects a heartwarming tale like “Call Me By Your Name,” they might be slightly disappointed. Eydelshteyn’s character is an oligarch’s son, living life as if “Spring Breakers” were his guidebook.

As a film enthusiast, I find October to be a unique moment, serving as a bit of respite amidst the flurry of regional film festivals like those in the Hamptons, Mill Valley, and Middleburg for the privileged few. For the rest of us, it’s an opportunity to catch our breath, as most major contenders for this year’s Oscars have already made their screenings. However, they continue to be shielded within industry circles, largely out of reach for the general public. That changes this weekend, as Sean Baker‘s Palme d’Or winner, “Anora,” hits theaters in New York and Los Angeles. To mark this exciting event, I’ve compiled 10 questions – one for each of GoldDerby’s top 10 Best Picture contenders – that are still left unanswered during this preliminary phase of the 2025 Oscar season, often referred to as a “phony war.

1. What makes us so sure this is the year the Academy embraces Sean Baker?

Richard Lawson from Vanity Fair has expressed skepticism about the idea that Anora will be a significant Oscar contender. He points out that while the film is excellent, Sean Baker’s previous works The Florida Project and Red Rocket were also highly praised, yet only received one Oscar nomination combined. The expectation that this time might be different is based on two factors: the Palme d’Or award that Anora won, which was given by a jury of nine individuals, and its third-place finish at TIFF, implying that it was almost as well-received in Canada as The Life of Chuck.

2. How many minutes will it take for out-of-context screenshots from Emilia Pérez to start going viral on social media?

Which perspective would carry more impact: Is it more controversial that a movie billed as a trans empowerment narrative was created by a non-trans individual, or that a story about Mexican cartel violence is being told by a foreign filmmaker?

3. Similarly, who will be most offended by Conclave …

People from a conservative Catholic background or members of an overlooked group may discover that the film provides them with a unique portrayal that differs from their initial expectations.

4. Can The Brutalist survive on a preferential ballot?

One of the most valuable insights I’ve received about awards season was shared by an experienced campaign strategist, who stated that in the era of preferential voting, being well-liked usually triumphs over showcasing grand accomplishments, approximately nine times out of ten. This could pose a challenge for a brooding titan like “The Brutalist,” as it seems to be broadcasting “INQUIRIES REGARDING MY GRAND ACHIEVEMENT” with its demeanor. Can Brady Corbet’s film tread the same path as “Oppenheimer,” without the advantage of a $900 million box office return?

5. Can A24 bring back Sing Sing?

This week, the touching indie film had a seemingly popular screening at the Academy in New York. Interestingly, it seems they’ve planned additional fall press screenings, which is unusual considering the movie has already been released. It appears they aim to follow the strategy used for the film CODA, and by gathering its entire cast on promotional tours, Sing Sing might significantly boost its exposure, much like how CODA did.

6. Will the Brits power Blitz?

Steve McQueen’s war epic, similar to an acquired taste like jellied eels, is being highly praised by British critics as a potential masterpiece, while American critics are offering it only mild acclaim. With a significant number of British members in the Academy, there’s speculation that they may rally behind Saoirse Ronan, a four-time nominee, making her a strong contender in the Supporting Actress category.

7. Can Dune: Part Two equal its predecessor’s trophy count?

In the 2022 Oscar competition, Dune has been dominating with nearly every technical award. However, upcoming films like Gladiator II, Wicked, Blitz, and others are expected to increase the competition. So, while it’s possible that Part Two could surpass its predecessor’s ten nominations by getting Denis Villeneuve a Best Director nod, repeating the original’s six-trophy haul will be quite challenging under these circumstances.

8. Does Scott Feinberg know something about September 5 that we don’t?

In simpler terms, most film critics believe that “September 5,” a movie about an American news crew during the Munich hostage crisis, is likely to be nominated for several awards, including Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and acting categories. However, Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood Reporter has been particularly enthusiastic about the film, comparing it to “Argo” and even suggesting that it’s currently leading the Best Picture race. Some people question whether Feinberg is just being contrary or if others are overlooking the film’s potential because they’re too caught up in a consensus view. The debate has sparked discussions online.

9. Can Nickel Boys keep the arthouse streak going?

The Academy’s preferences might be adjustable, similar to a thermostat. Following the auteur-focused lineup at the 2018 Oscars, voters showed strong affection for films like “Green Book” and “Bohemian Rhapsody,” but then awarded “Parasite” Best Picture the following year. The most recent Oscars saw challenging titles such as “The Zone of Interest” and “The Boy and the Heron” winning awards. A daring, uncompromising film like “Nickel Boys” is hoping that the Academy’s preference for arthouse films is a lasting change rather than a short-lived trend.

10. Will history repeat with Gladiator II?

In his podcast, “This Had Oscar Buzz”, Joe Reid pointed out that one reason Gladiator stood out as a summer blockbuster was because many prestigious films slated for fall 2000 (such as Pay It Forward, The Legend of Bagger Vance, and All the Pretty Horses) underperformed. This year, there haven’t been as many flops, but there’s a growing sentiment that this year’s film selection is not as strong as last year’s. Could Ridley Scott capitalize on a weaker competition again?

Oscar Futures: When the Moon Hits Your Eye Like a Big Cabbage Pie, That’s Anora

Each week from now until the Academy Awards nominations are revealed on January 17, Vulture will use its crystal ball to predict shifts in this year’s Oscars competition. In our “Oscar Futures” section, we’ll share exclusive rumors, analyze fresh updates, and monitor industry chatter to identify who is gaining ground, who is losing steam, and which contenders are currently in the lead for an esteemed Oscar nomination.

Best Picture

Up

Anora

If you’re a fan of the film “Anora,” it’s likely because you appreciate how it showcases Baker, a critically acclaimed artist who delicately portrays life in the margins, elevating his status even further. Critics like Dana Stevens describe it as a delightful blend of humor, sensuality, and rowdy energy, yet also surprisingly insightful and compassionate. This broad appeal should make “Anora” successful among voters, but it also carries a significant message about class and work.

Down

Saturday Night

It’s no longer surprising when a potential Oscar contender fails at the box office. This happens often. However, with Saturday Night unlikely to draw attention from critics, its poor performance during its initial wide release significantly limits its chances for success.

“A True Trouble” instead of A Real Pain

Best Director

Up

Sean Baker, Anora

Previously regarded as a symbol of artistic integrity within the independent film community, Baker reached a significant milestone when he was granted the Palme d’Or by a jury led by Greta Gerwig at Cannes. Anora showcases him further exploring the themes that have defined his career, notably revealing the inequalities concealed more subtly within the “conventional” economy through the lens of sex work. It wouldn’t shock me if the Academy welcomed Baker into their ranks when they vote in January.

Up

Anna Kendrick, Woman of the Hour

Due to the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) strike, last year’s Toronto International Film Festival showcased numerous films directed by actors. The general opinion was that Kendrick’s true-crime drama was the best among them. Interestingly, this retelling of serial killer Rodney Alcala’s appearance on The Dating Game is now available on Netflix over a year after its initial festival showing. Given its delay, it seems unlikely to be an Oscar contender, but considering its modest origins, it’s still quite impressive.

Filmmakers Jacques Audiard is known for “Emilia Pérez”, Sean Baker for “Anora”, Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist”, Steve McQueen for “Blitz”, and Denis Villeneuve for “Dune: Part Two”.

Best Actor

Down

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Just like how Saturday Night doesn’t rely on its opening night for success or failure, neither does The Apprentice. However, finishing in 10th place highlights one major challenge for this film – finding an audience willing to watch a movie about Donald Trump at present. This could potentially pose a problem if Stan aims to emulate the legendary appeal of Hannibal Lecter. In simpler terms, it’s tough for The Apprentice to draw viewers when its main character is Donald Trump, especially given current sentiment.

Up

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Remarkably, The Hollywood Reporter managed to acquire the preliminary placement of almost every awards contender for the Golden Globes. Since all significant male nominees are competing in the Drama category, the Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy award is wide open. It would be quite characteristic of the Golden Globes if the seemingly resurrected Phoenix snatched the trophy.

I follow Adrien Brody in his intense role as the protagonist of “The Brutalist”; Daniel Craig’s daring portrayal in “Queer” captivates me; Colman Domingo’s performance in “Sing Sing” is not to be missed; Ralph Fiennes delivers a powerful performance in “Conclave”; and I eagerly anticipate Sebastian Stan’s role in “The Apprentice”.

Best Actress

Up

Mikey Madison, Anora

In some instances, a film truly lives up to the old saying of providing a “career-defining performance,” and I’m convinced that Sean Baker’s movie Anora is just that for 2021, according to Alyssa Wilkinson. She describes Madison as captivating in her portrayal of a Brighton Beach stripper who stands up against the Russian elite’s hired muscle (they don’t send their best). The 25-year-old Madison seems to follow in the footsteps of Best Actress winners from the 2010s, such as Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, and Emma Stone. However, with the Academy inviting more women into its ranks, veterans like Frances McDormand and Michelle Yeoh have dominated the category. It’ll be intriguing to see who takes the win this year.

Even

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Theater enthusiasts are well aware that Cynthia Erivo, apart from being a remarkable vocalist and deeply empathetic actress, has a knack for making her voice heard. So it came as no surprise this week when Erivo spoke out forcefully against the questionable actions of fans who manipulated the Wicked movie poster to resemble its Broadway counterpart. As Mark Harris put it, “She’s going to have a long season.” Might the Wicked promotional team capitalize on their star’s robust online persona by engaging Erivo in discussions with Joyce Carol Oates and Paul Schrader?

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Mikey Madison, Anora; Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Best Supporting Actor

Up

Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

It’s against the law for a movie critic to publish an Anora review without referring to Eydelshteyn as “the Russian equivalent of Timothée Chalamet.” However, viewers hoping for the next Call Me By Your Name may be let down. As portrayed by Adam Nayman, this oligarch’s son gives off the vibe that Spring Breakers was an educational film for him, which suggests his acting is more about frenetic energy than depth. While Madison appears strong enough to attract another co-star, I ponder if one of her fellow actors might present a more intriguing alternative, given the Academy’s inclination towards young male performers.

Up

Yura Borisov, Anora

As I delve deeper into “Anora,” I find myself increasingly captivated by Borisov’s character in the second act. His rough-edged goon serves as a poignant counterpoint to the heroine, providing a rich emotional backdrop. While Eydelshteyn’s performance is powerful, Borisov’s seems more nuanced and relatable, perhaps striking a chord with viewers that’s easier to resonate with. Having graced our screens in “Compartment No. 6,” a Finnish submission not long ago, Borisov may find favor among voters for his familiarity.

As a devoted fan, I’d like to highlight four captivating performances: Kieran Culkin in “A Real Pain,” Clarence Maclin in “Sing Sing,” Guy Pearce in “The Brutalist,” Jeremy Strong in “The Apprentice,” and Stanley Tucci in “Conclave.” Each actor delivered a performance that left a lasting impression on me.

Best Supporting Actress

Even

Everything

Absolutely nothing happened in Supporting Actress this week. Sorry!

Danielle Deadwyler starred in “The Piano Lesson”; Aujanue Ellis-Taylor appeared in “Nickel Boys”; Felicity Jones was featured in “The Brutalist”; Saoirse Ronan acted in “Blitz”; Zoe Saldana played the role of “Emilia Pérez

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2024-10-19 15:54