Trump’s Speech: Will Bitcoin Soar or Sink? šŸ¤”šŸ’°

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In the grand theater of finance, Bitcoin, that elusive digital gold, clung to its lofty perch above $80,000, while the cautious souls of crypto and stock investors held their breath, waiting for the spectacle of Donald Trumpā€™s Liberation Day tariff speech. It was a moment pregnant with anticipation, like a farmer eyeing the sky for rain.

As the clock ticked, Bitcoin (BTC) danced at $84,500, a sprightly 10% above its March low. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market futures were not so cheerful, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 taking a nosedive of over 300 points, as if they had just seen a ghost. šŸ‘»

Trump Liberation Day is here

Ah, the main event! Trumpā€™s Liberation Day speech at the Rose Garden promised to be the catalyst for Bitcoin, altcoins, and the stock market alike. In this grand address, he was expected to unveil reciprocal tariffs on most countriesā€”yes, even the European Union, China, India, and Japan. It was like a game of poker, but with tariffs instead of cards.

Analysts, those modern-day prophets, warned that these tariffs could usher in a recession of epic proportions. Goldman Sachs and PIMCO, with their crystal balls, raised the odds of a downturn to 35%. A recession, they said, would likely stem from the slowing heartbeat of business investment and the waning spirit of consumer spending.

In theory, one would expect Bitcoin to plummet like a stone once Trump unleashed the tariff beast. Yet, in the unpredictable circus of finance, BTC and the stock market might just bounce back, like a rubber ball thrown against a wall. šŸŽˆ

Three reasons, dear reader, stand tall in this narrative. First, the Liberation Day tariffs had already been whispered about in the marketā€™s ear for weeks. The participants, like seasoned gamblers, might just ā€œbuy the factā€ once the announcement was made, as if they were betting on a horse they knew well.

Consider the past: Bitcoinā€™s price soared to dizzying heights ahead of Trumpā€™s inauguration, only to tumble down like a lead balloon once he took office. Itā€™s a tale as old as time.

Second, Bitcoin has weathered storms that would make lesser assets quiver. It not only survived but thrived during the COVID-19 pandemic and the regulatory tempest under SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Gadi Chait, an investment manager at Xapo, offered a calm voice amidst the chaos:

ā€œThese price swings may rattle speculators, but ultimately, this is just noise. Bitcoin has always been and always will be a long-term play; its value lies in its inherent sovereignty, decentralisation, and finite nature, not short-term volatility. Weā€™ve been here before, and weā€™ll likely be here again, but Bitcoinā€™s long-term trajectory remains undeniable.ā€

Finally, a recession could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as it might nudge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing. Itā€™s a twisted logic, but in the world of finance, who are we to judge?

Bitcoin price has strong technicals

The weekly chart, that sacred scroll of numbers, reveals that Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong technicals. It has formed an ascending channel, sitting near its lower bound like a cat on a windowsill. The last time it touched this level was in August last year, and it rebounded to a new all-time high shortly after, as if it had found a hidden stash of catnip.

Bitcoin has also remained above the 50-week moving average, another bullish sign. Thus, BTC may very well bounce back and possibly hit $100,000 in the coming weeks. But beware! A break below the lower side of the channel would invalidate this rosy outlook, leaving us all to ponder the fickle nature of fortune.

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2025-04-02 16:49