After a period of significant labor disputes and activism by SAG-AFTRA – fighting for fair pay and addressing concerns about the use of AI – the news about the guild’s newly named Actor Awards feels like a welcome change of pace. However, one moment really stood out: Michael B. Jordan unexpectedly winning Best Actor over Timothée Chalamet.
Timothée Chalamet has been widely expected to win an Oscar for his performance as Marty Mauser in the 2025 film, Marty Supreme, a comedic drama about a table tennis player. He already won a Golden Globe for the role, but that award doesn’t necessarily predict Oscar success, despite what many people think.
How does this affect Timothée Chalamet’s chances of winning an Oscar this year? Could it suggest a shift in opinion among both general audiences and the Academy voters? Perhaps it signals a turning point for Hollywood. Or is it simply because the strong films released in 2025 – including Marty Supreme, the blockbuster Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and others – have made this year’s awards race unpredictable?
SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Award Is Far From Timothée Chalamet’s Only 2026 Loss
A24
It’s becoming clear that Timothée Chalamet likely won’t win all the major acting awards this season. He recently lost to Michael Jordan at one awards show, and even earlier, at the BAFTA Awards, he lost to Robert Aramayo, who won for his performance in the film I Swear. This makes a complete awards sweep for Chalamet seem unlikely.
It’s unlikely Timothée Chalamet has suddenly become unpopular due to rumors of a disagreement with SAG-AFTRA, especially since those rumors are flimsy. The source of this idea seems to be his controversial acceptance speech after winning Best Actor for his role as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The speech caused a stir because, instead of being modest, Chalamet stated he was striving for greatness, saying, “I want to be one of the greats.” This approach didn’t sit well with many viewers.
His speech, while perhaps a bit boastful, was delivered between sincere thanks to his mother and praise for actors he admired, like Marlon Brando and Daniel Day-Lewis. It seems unlikely that this speech alone would disqualify him from winning the award this year.
For Timothée Chalamet, the 2026 Awards Season Is a Real Ping-Pong Match
© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the Oscars? It’s really tough to predict, as the usual clues aren’t pointing to a clear frontrunner.
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Here’s what we can confidently say: Michael B. Jordan, having won an Actor Award for his performance in Sinners, is now a strong contender for the Academy Award in the same category. And the film’s incredible success – with a record-breaking 16 nominations, including Best Picture and acting awards – certainly boosts his chances.
Considering just this information, Timothée Chalamet’s odds appear lower, but not nonexistent. As Marty Mauser put it, having a strong sense of purpose isn’t always a positive thing – he famously said, “I have a purpose. […] If you think that’s some kind of blessing, it’s not.”
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2026-03-03 00:33