Super Burnout: With Most Superhero Movies Flopping, Can Marvel and DC’s 2025 Slates Reverse an Unprecedented Box Office Drought?

As a seasoned film critic who has been following the trajectory of superhero movies for over two decades, I must say that the upcoming slate of Marvel and DC films is nothing short of exhilarating. The stakes are high, especially for Doctor Doom in “Avengers: Doomsday” and Superman in the new DC Universe, both of which need to perform exceptionally well to meet the global expectations set by their predecessors.

As a movie critic, I found myself in the theater for “Venom: The Last Dance,” the supposed swan song of Tom Hardy’s alien-symbiote-buddy-comedy saga. However, the film’s $51 million domestic opening weekend, a significant 44% and 55% drop compared to its predecessors, seems to be signaling not only the end of this particular franchise but also the gradual decline of superhero films as the undisputed heavyweights at the box office.

Previously, superhero films were a significant source of income for the movie industry. In 2018 and 2019, the average worldwide earnings from these movies surpassed $1 billion. However, this year, they have only managed to make half as much, with “Deadpool & Wolverine” being the sole exception that could be considered a success since “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” was released in June 2023. Since then, the genre has experienced an unprecedented dry spell at the box office. Movie after movie, from “The Flash” to “The Marvels” to “Madame Web,” have received lukewarm responses at best and outright rejection at worst. “Joker: Folie à Deux” is predicted to earn the unfortunate title of earning less in its entire box office run than its predecessor’s $248.4 million global opening weekend in 2019.

From 2015 to 2019, a total of 83% (or 25 out of 30) superhero titles grossed over $500 million worldwide, with many doing exceptionally well. However, since the pandemic, this trend has reversed drastically: As of 2022, approximately 59% (or 10 out of 17) superhero titles have earned less than $500 million internationally, again with several underperforming significantly.

As a devoted cinephile, I’ve noticed that the reasons behind the decline in box office earnings can differ greatly from movie to movie. For instance, DC’s productions were affected by scandals and the awareness that their franchise was undergoing a reboot with new management at the helm. Marvel, on the other hand, seems to have oversaturated the market with its Disney+ series and is now scaling back. As for Sony, they’ve been trying to establish a universe of live-action Spider-Man characters without actually having Spider-Man himself. The end result is an undeniable weakening of the genre’s commercial influence.

The tight financial constraints are putting a nearly critical weight on the 2025 lineup of superhero movies. Following the release of only “Deadpool & Wolverine” in 2024, Marvel Studios is planning to increase production again with three films: “Captain America: New World Order”, “Thunderbolts*” and “The Fantastic Four: Initial Footsteps.

According to analyst Jeff Bock from Exhibitor Relations, there’s no guarantee of blockbuster success for “Captain America 4” and “Thunderbolts.” Despite the ongoing popularity of Marvel, the expectation that these films will generate “Deadpool & Wolverine”-level business is unlikely, in his opinion. The challenge these movies face is their heavy dependence on characters and storylines from multiple previous MCU titles, such as Disney+ shows like “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” and “Hawkeye,” as well as films like “Black Widow,” “Eternals,” “Ant-Man and the Wasp,” “Captain America: Civil War,” and even “The Incredible Hulk” from 2008. This intricate web of connections, which has been a strength for Marvel Studios since its inception, could potentially work against these more recent projects like “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” “Secret Invasion,” and “The Marvels.

In contrast, “The Fantastic Four” is set in an alternate timeline, offering a new and invigorating path that industry insiders claim has revitalized the studio. Despite being pivotal figures in the Marvel comic book world, known as Marvel’s First Family due to their significance, previous attempts by 20th Century Fox in the 2000s and 2010s to establish them as leading stars failed to gain traction. Marvel Studios can’t risk a repeat: Robert Downey Jr. is slated to reappear as the team’s arch-nemesis, Doctor Doom, for “Avengers: Doomsday” in 2026, and this film, along with “Avengers: Secret Wars” in 2027, will be directed by Joe and Anthony Russo, who oversaw the last two “Avengers” movies that grossed over $2 billion worldwide. Essentially, Marvel has set a dauntingly high standard for the reintroduction of these crucial characters, and they must now meet it.

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According to Bock, the ‘Fantastic Four’ needs to outshine both ‘Captain America’ and ‘Thunderbolts’ in order to pave the way for several consecutive ‘Avengers’ movies.

Marvel Studios is working together with Sony Pictures to produce the upcoming fourth “Spider-Man” film featuring Tom Holland, which will be directed by Destin Daniel Cretton (“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”). Meanwhile, Sony Animation is busy producing the third and final installment in the “Spider-Verse” series, while their TV division is creating “Spider-Noir” with Nicolas Cage for Amazon. However, the future of Sony’s Spider-Man Universe films (not involving Holland or Marvel Studios) is uncertain at this point. Although “Venom: The Last Dance” has a post-credits teaser, there are currently no other Sony Spider-Man Universe projects scheduled after the December release of the R-rated “Kraven the Hunter” starring Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

In simpler terms, according to Bock, ‘Venom’ is facing challenges as a spinoff from Sony’s Spider-Man universe due to industry pressures. Initially, Sony had ambitious plans to release multiple Spider-Man titles annually, but current circumstances suggest they may need to rethink their strategy.

In 2025, the stakes for DC Studios are at their peak. Back in January 2023, James Gunn and Peter Safran, who had recently taken up their roles as co-chiefs, unveiled a completely revamped lineup of 10 movies and TV shows meant to reboot the universe as a comprehensive creative initiative. The animated series “Creature Commandos” will be first, airing on Max in December, but it’s with the release of “Superman,” directed by Gunn himself, that the new DC Universe truly takes off.

Bock emphasizes that ‘Superman’ is crucial for the entire DC Universe, stating that it should open domestically with around $100 million, which DC hasn’t achieved in quite a while unless we count 2022’s ‘The Batman.’ However, it’s important to note that ‘The Batman,’ like the upcoming ‘Joker: Folie à Deux,’ was produced outside of the DCU. If ‘Superman’ doesn’t succeed, Warner Bros. and DC films will be at a pivotal moment, requiring significant changes in their strategies.

Gunn and Safran’s promise that no DC project will progress without a completed script serves as a safety measure for the company if “Superman” encounters problems: So far, only two of their planned projects – the film “Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow” and the streaming series “Lanterns”, along with the animated feature “Dynamic Duo” – have started production. For now, projects centered around less popular characters such as Booster Gold, Swamp Thing, and the Authority are still awaiting approval.

Warner Bros. and Disney continue to stand firm behind their DC and Marvel film lineups throughout this decade, and it appears this trend won’t be shifting anytime soon. According to Bock, there’s currently no alternative to superhero movies when it comes to films with the potential to earn such substantial profits at the box office. As long as another genre doesn’t dominate, they will keep pouring resources into this field.

2024-10-29 00:47

Super Burnout: With Most Superhero Movies Flopping, Can Marvel and DC’s 2025 Slates Reverse an Unprecedented Box Office Drought?

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