Sports Surge in TV Upfront Pushes NBC’s 2026 Super Bowl Close to Early Sell-Out (EXCLUSIVE)

by

During crucial sales periods, TV networks find themselves relying solely on sports broadcasts as their primary means for ad revenue.

As a movie enthusiast, I’m noticing an escalating competition among Madison Avenue bigwigs aiming to secure advertising spots during NFL games, the Super Bowl, and other major events throughout the year. This revelation comes from four industry insiders who shared their insights about this year’s “upfront” market, a period when TV networks strive to sell the majority of their commercial spaces in advance for their upcoming fall lineup of shows. However, it seems that advertisers are adopting a cautious approach with almost everything else.

According to a media-buying executive, sports remain the lucrative sector. Indeed, broadcasters are being quite assertive in their pursuit of sports content. While they may not be getting everything they desire, they’re still receiving more than what was initially anticipated. Essentially, following sports, there seems to be no immediate need for anything else.”

Or, more casually:

“A media-buying exec says that sports is where the big bucks are. Broadcasters are definitely going all out in sports, even if they’re not getting everything they want. But they’re still getting more than expected, and after sports, there doesn’t seem to be much else on their radar.

Market-savvy executives believe that NBCUniversal, Fox, and Disney have likely secured the most business deals with media buying agencies, while Paramount has also made some transactions. Warner Bros. Discovery is facing difficulties due to losing NBA rights for the upcoming season and their heavy reliance on cable networks, which are less popular among advertisers compared to streaming and broadcast TV. Sources close to recent negotiations at Warner claim they have been productive. On the other hand, Netflix and Amazon appear to have stepped back from the financial terms they proposed last year, which some buyers deemed excessively high.

The executives also hint that advertisers have largely depleted NBC’s ad inventory for the 2026 broadcast of Super Bowl LX. Earlier this year, NBC had been aiming to secure up to $7 million for a 30-second ad, with an emphasis on persuading advertisers to invest more in other areas of their media offerings. One media representative proposes that the demand for the Super Bowl is so robust that NBC might negotiate with the NFL to include extra commercial time during the event, similar to what Fox has done previously. This representative stated that in early June, NBC contacted all advertisers who had requested time slots for the Big Game and instructed them to make immediate commitments or risk having their ads assigned to a growing roster of waiting sponsors. Another media rep reveals that some agencies have been informed by NBC that it is “sold out” for Super Bowl ad spots.

Representatives from Fox, Disney, NBCUniversal, Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Amazon chose not to discuss the speed at which their respective companies are concluding upfront deals. Paramount failed to provide a response when asked for comment on the matter.

In my experience as a movie critic, I’ve noticed that major broadcasting networks, due to their established connections in the sports industry, often have an edge when it comes to securing deals quickly and in greater volume compared to other players. This is based on insights shared by a fellow media negotiator who has recently been part of such negotiations.

In the advertising realm, sports have traditionally been a major attraction, but in the streaming era, a wide variety of professional and amateur games have grown even more appealing. Advertisers continue to seek methods to display their messages and promotions to vast audiences, preferring this approach over gathering a broad spectrum of consumer impressions through individual viewing sessions – a significant aspect of streaming. People still choose to watch live MLB games or college football matches, but they are more flexible about catching up with favorite dramas or comedies at times that suit them best.

As a follower, I’m experiencing an escalation in interest towards sports, despite concerns about potential disruptions in the early sales market due to the economic policies, specifically tariffs, under the Trump administration. There seems to be a consensus among buyers that the overall upfront market might be shrinking, with advertisers opting to reserve their funds for later in the year. However, networks boasting extensive sports programming appear to have a favorable breeze at their backs, and it’s suggested that sports could absorb most of the available funds for the upfront, leaving fewer resources for other types of content.

It appears that both buyers and sellers find themselves at a standstill concerning the pricing for streaming content. The main point of contention, as stated by executives, is the ongoing request from advertisers to decrease the rates they pay for streaming ads. Advertisers managed to secure double-digit percentage reductions in CPM (cost per thousand viewers) last year. This metric is crucial in negotiations between media companies and advertisers. However, sales leaders are determined to withstand such demands by 2025.

One of the purchasing executives has been sharing the message that “you can’t rely on the same discounts from last year.” However, this executive also mentions that there is currently an oversupply in the market, and they expect “price reductions,” though perhaps not as drastic as those experienced in the previous year. Several television companies are employing their sports programming to negotiate more favorable terms with buyers.

A buying executive has been telling people that last year’s discounts won’t be repeated this time, but they also think there will be price drops because there’s too much stuff available. TV companies are using sports to get better deals from buyers.

On both sides of the table, executives acknowledge that media companies are experiencing growth in Cost Per Thousand Impressions (CPM) for sports ads, rising significantly by high-single digits, while CPMs for traditional linear broadcast commercials have seen a more modest increase within the low-single-digit percentage range. This rise in linear CPMs is not primarily due to a thriving market, but rather because networks are selling fewer traditional entertainment options and anticipating smaller audiences for the remaining content. For instance, NBC is projected to allocate two nights of its broadcast schedule to NBA telecasts starting from 2025.

Broadcast networks tend to prefer the upfront market since it gives them an opportunity to establish backing for their shows before they even air. However, the advertising landscape has become more challenging in recent times as audiences increasingly shift towards streaming video and various platforms for consuming TV shows, movies, news, and sports events.

2024 saw a shift in advertising commitments within the media landscape, as per Media Dynamics Inc. The spending on primetime broadcast TV dipped by 3.5%, landing at $9.34 billion compared to the previous year. Similarly, ad commitments for cable primetime took a steeper hit of 4.8%, reaching $9.065 billion. On the flip side, investments in streaming video platforms experienced a significant surge, jumping by 35.3% to an impressive $11.1 billion, up from $8.2 billion in the previous market. For the first time in the industry, the allocation for streaming video exceeded that of both primetime broadcast and cable TV for the recent season – a testament to the growing influence of streaming platforms among cinephiles like myself.

Read More

2025-06-09 16:47