Polymarket Trader Loses Millions on Tyson After Making Bank on Trump

As a seasoned researcher who has been observing and analyzing prediction markets for quite some time now, I must admit that this week’s events have been nothing short of intriguing. The rollercoaster ride of “zxgngl,” the millionaire-maker turned multi-millionaire loser in just one night, serves as a stark reminder that even the most informed predictions can go awry.

Can’t win ’em all.

The user “zxgngl” on Polymarket won an impressive $11.4 million by predicting correctly that Donald Trump would win the presidency again. However, they suffered a loss of $3.4 million when they wagered incorrectly on the fight between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul last Friday night.

Many people wagered on Tyson, the unexpected contender who was well past his prime, only to end up losing their money. However, “zxgngl” suffered the most significant losses by a wide margin that night. The second-biggest loser racked up a deficit of $105,390, while the third-worst off was $99,997 in the red.

yes or no. Each share you buy pays out one unit (in cryptocurrency like Polymarket uses) if your guess is correct, and nothing if it’s wrong. The value of the share, shown in cents for every dollar, reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of the event happening. Expressed as a percentage, this value shows how likely the market thinks the prediction will come true.

As the big match approached, shares of Paul were being bought at 62 cents on the stock market, indicating a strong 62% likelihood that he would emerge victorious. Bettors predicted that Tyson had a 29% chance of overcoming his age disadvantage, while the fight ending in a draw or neither fighter being declared the winner was seen as an 11% possibility.

Long before the fight started, boxing analysts had already predicted its outcome, and it wasn’t an enjoyable sight on TV to watch a man who could be Paul’s father struggle tirelessly to match his pace in the ring.

According to a different agreement with Polymarket, it’s highly unlikely that the fight was fixed, as they estimate only a 1% probability of finding evidence suggesting otherwise by November 23rd.

For your information, there isn’t a significant link between Trump and Tyson. Those who suffered losses in the fight placed a combination of wagers on both political candidates.

Gaetz Probably Won’t be Attorney General

According to wagers on Polymarket, there is only a 21% probability that Matt Gaetz will be appointed as the Attorney General.

Florida’s Gaetz is a controversial pick for Attorney General because he courts controversy.

Gaetz has been known for his provocative behavior in Congress, often engaging in attention-grabbing antics such as confronting the Republican Speaker of the House and making contentious remarks about pro-abortion demonstrators, even escalating those comments further. To many, he appears less like a skilled legislator and more like a troublemaker or instigator.

Moreover, aside from his notable actions, Gaetz has made significant strides in the House by proposing legislation aimed at barring members of Congress from personally owning or trading individual stocks. This bill garnered backing across party lines and includes Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a fellow sponsor.

As a diligent analyst, I must bring to light the accusations that Representative Gaetz has been confronted with. These claims encompass questionable behavior related to sexual misconduct, substance abuse, and unsuitable gift-receiving. The allegations concerning sexual misconduct resulted in an investigation; however, the prosecutors chose not to file charges.

In order for Gaetz’s confirmation to go through, he must secure backing from at least 50 out of the 53 Republican senators. It is possible that Gaetz may have burnt some bridges among this group due to his past actions, or others might be growing weary of his behavior.

According to a recent news conference, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski expressed her belief that the nomination for the attorney general isn’t particularly significant or substantial.

And given the odds on Polymarket, the market tends to agree.

At the U.S.-regulated prediction market, Kalshi, where trades are settled in dollars, the traders are giving Matt Gaetz a slight edge with odds of approximately 34%.

Are we happy?

2024 is predicted to have a lower probability of being a more favorable year compared to 2023, according to wagers placed by Polymarket bettors. This prediction is based on their analysis of the Ipsos “Me Personally” tracker, which gauges American opinions about how their years compare. The data suggests that there’s a 66% chance that people will consider 2023 to have been a better year than 2024.

In the previous year, a survey revealed that most Americans perceived 2023 as a mostly favorable year, largely due to encouraging economic indicators such as reduced unemployment rates and declining inflation. Moreover, those who participated in the survey expressed hopefulness that 2024 would bring even greater positivity.

In the ninth month of 2024, we find ourselves almost at the end of the year, and the economy is exhibiting a blend of positive and negative trends. Certain economic measures, such as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, are flashing warning signs of potential recession and economic instability as we approach 2025; meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has dipped for much of the year.

While the economy persistently expands, displaying a rise in its GDP and continued investments in manufacturing as American re-industrialization progresses, the S&P 500 has soared by 23% this year, and Bitcoin has surpassed previous records with no indication of abating.

Is it safe to say that all this indicates we are content? The World Happiness Report offers a somewhat ambiguous verdict. Generally speaking, North Americans didn’t experience significant increases in happiness between 2023 and 2024, and there’s been an ongoing decrease in happiness among young adults aged 15-24. It seems that wealth and a robust economy might not be the only factors contributing to our wellbeing.

Read more | U.S. Election Betting: Polymarket ‘Manipulation’ Claims Miss the Mark