2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Documentary Feature
As a cinephile with a heart for cinema history, I eagerly anticipate the annual Academy Awards, also known as the Oscars. With over three decades of immersing myself in the world of film and its artistry, I can confidently say that the Oscars represent the pinnacle of cinematic achievements.
Weekly Update (October 14, 2024): The competition for the top documentary feature continues to be unpredictable, with no standout non-fiction film so far that seems destined to take the crown.
We shouldn’t overlook the fact that we’re working with the Documentary Branch, known for its unpredictability and occasional disappointments. It’s the same group that left us stunned when they overlooked well-regarded documentaries such as “Apollo 11,” “Jane,” “Three Identical Strangers,” and “American Symphony.
An intriguing bit of knowledge to keep in mind: Since 2000, only two filmmakers have managed to secure another nomination for Best Documentary Feature after winning initially. Michael Moore won for “Bowling for Columbine” in 2002 and was later nominated for “Sicko” in 2007. Similarly, Laura Poitras won for “Citizenfour” in 2014 and received another nomination for “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” in 2022. It’s striking how many winners since then have been overlooked, including well-known names like Davis Guggenheim (“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”), Alex Gibney (“Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief,” “Totally Under Control”), and Morgan Neville (“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”). Will this pattern persist, or will this year buck the trend?
Neville’s “Piece by Piece,” an animated biography of Pharrell Williams, has reentered the competition. However, there’s speculation about whether The Branch, known for overlooking groundbreaking work such as 2021’s “The Rescue” directed by Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, will welcome recreations of significant events in Pharrell’s life. Fortunately, the film is also competing for both animated feature and original song awards, potentially reducing a possible rejection.
I’m excited to share that our branch has experienced a notable influx of international members lately, paving the way for more non-US productions. With this expanded voting pool, films such as Shiori Itô’s compelling “Black Box Diaries” and Mati Diop’s “Dahomey,” which represents Senegal in the International Feature category, may stand a stronger chance of success.
As the awards season progresses, National Geographic’s “Sugarcane” is already off to a strong start, leading the Critics Choice Documentary Awards with eight nominations. Joining the critically acclaimed film by Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie are contenders like “Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story,” “Daughters,” “The Greatest Night in Pop,” “Jim Henson: Idea Man,” “Music by John Williams,” “Piece by Piece,” “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,” and “Will & Harper.”
Netflix holds a commanding position with several front-runners vying for top spots. One of its promising candidates is the Sundance award winner “Daughters,” currently leading the pack. Additionally, titles such as “Skywalkers: A Love Story” and “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” are also in Netflix’s arsenal, making it a powerful competitor this year.
As a connoisseur of celluloid stories, I often find myself reflecting on the fact that no documentary has ever been honored with the coveted title of Best Picture. However, an exceptional film like “Chang” managed to secure a nomination in the long-gone “Unique and Artistic Production” category during the 1927/28 Oscars. It’s high time we reconsidered the voting body for this category, inviting other branches to participate. This change could be the catalyst that finally propels a nonfiction film into the running for the Academy’s premier award. The wait has been far too long.
The 97th Academy Awards will take place on March 2nd, a Sunday. Please note that the following ranks are provisional as the specifics of the movies, their titles, and their distributors may still be subject to modification.
- “America’s Burning” (Abramorama)
- “Apocalypse in the Tropics” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Bad Faith” (Self-Distributed)
- “Bad River” (50 Eggs Films)
- “Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story” (National Geographic)
- “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
- “Blink” (National Geographic)
- “The Blue Angels” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- “Bread and Roses” (Apple Original Films)
- “Carville: Winning is Everything, Stupid!” (CNN Films)
- “¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor!” (MTV Documentary Films)
- “Catching Fire: The Story of Anita Pallenberg” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “The Commandant’s Shadow” (HBO Documentary Films)
- “Copa 71” (Greenwich)
- “Dahomey” (Mubi)
- “Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Eno” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “Frida” (Amazon MGM)
- “Gaucho Gaucho” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Girls State” (Apple TV+)
- “The Grab” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix)
- “Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act Film)
- “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)
- “In Waves and War” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Invisible Nation” (Abramorama)
- “Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
- “The Last of the Sea Women” (Apple Original Films)
- “Look Into My Eyes” (A24)
- “Luther: Never Too Much” (Giant)
- “Made in England: The Films of Powell & Pressburger” (Cohen Media Group)
- “Majority Rules” (Abramorama)
- “Maya and the Wave” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa” (Netflix)
- “Music by John Williams” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “A New Kind of Wilderness” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “No One Asked You” (Ruthless)
- “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
- “Patrice: The Movie” (ABC News/Hulu)
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
- “Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
- “Power” (Netflix)
- “Riefenstahl” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)
- “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band” (Hulu)
- “Seeking Mavis Beacon” (Neon)
- “Separated” (Submarine Deluxe)
- “Skywalkers: A Love Story” (Netflix)
- “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
- “State of Silence” (Netflix)
- “Sugarcane” (National Geographic)
- “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
- “2073” (Neon)
- “Union” (Level Ground)
- “War Game” (Submarine Deluxe)
- “The White House Effect” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Who’s Afraid of Nathan Law?” (POV)
- “Will & Harper” (Netflix)
- “Zurawski v. Texas” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
And the Predicted Nominees Are
| Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
| 1 | “Daughters” (Netflix) — Angela Patton, Natalie Rae |
| 2 | “Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) — Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie |
| 3 | “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films) — Shiori Itô |
| 4 | “Dahomey” (Mubi) — Mati Diop, Judith Lou Lévy, Eve Robin |
| 5 | “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme) — Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning |
Next in Line
| Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
| 6 | “The Commandant’s Shadow” (HBO Documentary Films) — Daniela Völker |
| 7 | “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” (Magnolia Pictures) — Raoul Peck |
| 8 | “Separated” (Submarine Deluxe) — Errol Morris |
| 9 | “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — Josh Greenbaum |
| 10 | “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.) — Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui |
Other Contenders
| Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
| 11 | “Bread and Roses” (Apple Original Films) |
| 12 | “Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act Film) |
| 13 | “Porcelain War” (Picturehouse) |
| 14 | “Who’s Afraid of Nathan Law?” (POV) |
| 15 | “Music by John Williams” (Walt Disney Pictures) |
| 16 | “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) |
| 17 | “Copa 71” (Greenwich) |
| 18 | “Frida” (Amazon MGM) |
| 19 | “In Waves and War” (No U.S. Distribution) |
| 20 | “Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+) |
Eligible Titles (Best Documentary Feature)
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
More Information (Oscars: Best Documentary Feature)
2024 prize-winning documentary: “20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS) – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, and Raney Aronson-Rath
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
Oscars Prediction Categories
| — | — |
|---|---|
| Best Picture | Director |
| Actor in a Leading Role | Actress in a Leading Role |
| Actor in a Supporting Role | Actress in a Supporting Role |
| Original Screenplay | Adapted Screenplay |
| Animated Feature | Production Design |
| Cinematography | Costume Design |
| Film Editing | Makeup and Hairstyling |
| Sound | Visual Effects |
| Original Score | Original Song |
| Documentary Feature | International Feature |
| Animated Short | Documentary Short |
| Live Action Short | Casting (coming in 2026) |
About the Academy Awards
The Oscars, commonly known as the Academy Awards, is the most esteemed artistic honor in the film industry, bestowed by Hollywood. Established in 1927, nominees and winners are chosen by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), which comprises approximately 10,000 individuals across seventeen different professional branches. These branches encompass actors, directors, cinematographers, costume designers, editors, makeup artists, marketing professionals, producers, sound technicians, visual effects experts, and writers, among others.
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2024-10-15 01:19