Oscar Strategists Tell All!

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If the recent award season has left you feeling exhausted, consider how exhausting it must be for those dedicated Oscar strategists.

Movie award strategists, a unique group within film publicity, guide potential Oscar winners through the tough six months leading up to the Academy Awards. This year has been particularly challenging for them, as evidenced by a burst of laughter when I inquired about their experience. Fortunately, the deadline for final Oscars voting passed on Tuesday, leaving only minor logistical tasks for this weekend’s Independent Spirit and SAG Awards. With more spare time now, it seemed an opportune moment to chat with several strategists, to gather their reflections (not quite a postmortem) on how the season has unfolded.

As a passionate movie enthusiast, I’ve noticed that all the film strategists represented at least one contender for Best Picture this year, but their views on the quality of the Oscar race varied significantly. One labeled 2024 as a “very underwhelming year for cinema.” Conversely, another took pride in the fact that the Oscars had generally done an admirable job showcasing the best films of the year. However, we all concurred that this was an uncommonly volatile Oscar season. I recall few seasons where there’s been as much shifting in the top spot. The number of times the predicted frontrunner would change within just a couple of days was unprecedented.

Among the individuals I conversed with, there was some differing opinion regarding which contenders were ahead in the race. Most agreed that The Brutalist had always been powerful and Anora was currently in front. Some backed Conclave, appreciating it as a thoughtful film for adults, while others felt it might be too British. There was strong support for A Complete Unknown until January’s nominations, when it seemed to lose momentum. Despite predictions of success for Emilia Pérez with 13 nominations, two analysts not involved in the musical expressed skepticism about its chances prior to Karla Sofía Gascón’s scandal. One suggested misogyny and prejudice against transgender issues within the Academy might be factors. Another mentioned Netflix’s ongoing grudge among traditional theater enthusiasts as another potential hurdle. To win, Netflix needs a film like Oppenheimer – a universally acclaimed production.

This year’s Best Picture competition is wide-open, implying that any movie could potentially win, as one individual put it. The general consensus is that this race has been particularly chaotic. As another strategist pointed out, there have always been Oscar scandals, but the nature and perhaps the number of them this year seemed unusually intense to many. The final stretch of the competition saw several Best Picture contenders embroiled in one online controversy after another, from AI use in The Brutalist, to Mikey Madison from Anora opting against an intimacy coordinator. A female strategist expressed frustration over the backlash against Anora, stating, “If an actress wants to do something a certain way, it’s their body, their choice.” The recent Justin Baldoni-Blake Lively drama has raised questions about whether these stories were orchestrated by rival campaigns. However, strategists believe that such manipulation was unlikely to be the case. As one said, “I don’t think anyone was playing games.” Another expressed hope that this isn’t a growing trend in the industry, while another attributed the chaos to overactive fans on the internet.

As a devoted cinephile, I’ve always understood that the vibrant Film Twitter community doesn’t quite mirror the Academy. However, it’s undeniable that the Emilia Pérez scandal, involving offensive tweets from the first openly trans actress nominated for an Oscar, left its mark on the competition. For those who were ardent supporters of her movie, this revelation likely didn’t sway their opinion. But if there were voters leaning towards choosing the film for political reasons, I believe they might have reconsidered their decision post-scandal. Yet, another strategist argued that voters may not wish to support a precedent where one individual’s actions could tarnish an entire production.

This year was incredibly chaotic for me, not just because of the scandals but also due to the unexpected complications brought about by the wildfires. It’s strange, but those fires seemed to intertwine with our usual awards campaigning in a way that made everything feel discombobulated. The Oscars even had to postpone their nomination voting deadline twice and many precursors adjusted their dates as well, due to the L.A. wildfires. This new calendar has caused a shift in priorities; victories at events like SAG now hold less significance for who will eventually win an Oscar.

Many strategists concurred that the most unforeseen turn of events during the season was the surge of “The Substance”. One commented, “I was taken aback, but I’m thrilled for everyone.” So, how did a French horror satire end up with five Oscar nominations? According to another, it was largely due to Demi Moore. “They had someone who was prepared to attend as many events as feasible,” they said, “and she had an exceptionally compelling story. Moreover, the film carries European nuances, and it’s crucial to emphasize — the influence of international voters at this moment.

A different analyst wasn’t taken aback. She highlighted that the movie was jointly produced by Working Title, a well-respected British production company. “Therefore, you can expect backing from the U.K. audience. With Coralie Fargeat receiving French endorsement, and Demi and her network of actress colleagues providing support, there was someone ready to invest in the campaign. Moreover, the film resonated with many women. Consequently, there were numerous opportunities for this movie to gain traction. However, I don’t believe that every horror film will automatically secure a spot.

Regarding the strategist’s perspective, it appears another film from this year’s horror nominees, “Nosferatu,” left a strong impression. On the day of nominations, Robert Eggers’ vampire movie garnered recognition in four technical categories. This suggests that viewers are not only paying attention but also considering areas outside the typical Oscar categories, focusing on those specific crafts. Another individual was particularly hopeful about the success of “The Substance” and “Nosferatu.” They viewed their performance as a significant leap forward for horror films.

As the Academy has grown more global and intellectual, it’s also seen a shift towards a younger demographic, according to strategists, although there’s debate about its significance: “It changed from an average age of 65 to around 60.” Interestingly, this transformation has actually boosted the impact of the Golden Globes compared to other predictors. Although the Globes’ voters still don’t intersect with the Oscars’, their preferences are becoming more aligned with the new Academy members. As one strategist pointed out, “Do the guilds truly represent the Oscar narrative? The guilds are very American.” Upon examining who participates in the Globes voting, they discovered a large number of journalists commonly seen at Cannes, Venice, or Berlin film festivals. They acknowledged that there were some intelligent individuals within the group.

Despite the fact that not every artsy title in competition had an effortless path, a strategist who worked for a contender with a divisive initial festival screening shared their experience. “For the first time in a while,” they admitted, “I felt like I had to fight tooth and nail for each and every bit of press coverage.” They received emails from trade publications stating, “This movie isn’t really gaining traction,” which created a gap between expectation and reality. The strategist knew the film wasn’t an easy win for Academy members, but they were aware of the hard work being put in and the substantial studio investment. It was challenging to convince people that it truly stood a chance. However, this movie eventually earned a nomination due to a dedicated, albeit small, fan base. The takeaway? “You don’t need thousands of supporters to vote for you; you only need a few.

The crux of an awards strategist’s job lies in convincing Academy members to watch their film. As one strategist put it, “They tend to watch films that appeal to them, and then they cast their votes.” This proved challenging for a movie like “Sing Sing“. Two separate strategists shared this observation. “Internationally, African American stories often face greater obstacles,” one of them noted, adding that “Sing Sing” may have been less viewed abroad compared to other films. The campaign was criticized for not effectively communicating the film’s narrative. As another strategist put it, “The campaign really didn’t convey what the movie was about.” They also expressed a fondness for “Sing Sing“, calling it one of their favorites of the year. However, they felt that the money spent on marketing the film was primarily focused on Colman Domingo rather than the movie itself.

These strategists openly acknowledge their own limitations and oversights. It appears probable that at the end of this season, Anora will emerge victorious, prompting some to admit they had underestimated it. “It didn’t seem to me like a film that would win Best Picture,” one strategist admitted. However, when Sean Baker’s movie won DGA and PGA awards on the same night, their confidence began to grow. “I was genuinely surprised, but it was a delightful surprise,” another said. One of the things that makes Anora so remarkable is its uplifting nature. In an odd way, it gives one a glimmer of hope for humanity.

Can SAG Give Us a Photo Finish in Best Picture?

After the British participants have contributed excitement and spiced up the closing phases of the awards season, it’s now the performers’ moment to shine.

The SAG Awards voting has been completed and it’s unlikely to impact the Oscars since the results are already set. However, as the Academy’s largest branch is acting, there’s a possibility that the choices made by the guilds could mirror the predicted Oscar favorites. In the past three years, 11 out of 12 individual acting winners at SAG have also won at the Oscars, with Lily Gladstone being the exception from ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’. The supporting categories seem to be decided, with Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña leading their respective fields. However, the lead acting races could see some changes. This Sunday represents Timothée Chalamet’s final chance to prevent Adrien Brody from sweeping all awards, and if he makes an appearance at any precursor event, it’ll likely be the one attended by online influencers. The SAG Awards could potentially boost the chances of Michaela Watkins (BAFTA’s choice over Demi Moore in ‘The Substance’), making her a strong contender for the Oscar. But given how Moore’s role should resonate with this particular academy, it may not be that straightforward.

As someone who closely follows awards season, I must admit there’s a lot of buzz surrounding the Best Cast category this year. The reason? It’s not just about the number of strong contenders, but also because the impact of winning this award often becomes clearer with time. For instance, films like “Moonlight,” “Parasite,” and “CODA” soared to a Best Picture win after their Best Cast victory. On the other hand, movies such as “Hidden Figures,” “Black Panther,” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” received well-deserved recognition with this award, serving as a token of appreciation for films that might have been overlooked otherwise.

Among the five candidates, it appears that the time for two of them may have come and gone. At present, it seems unlikely that the guild will choose Emilia Pérez, given that Karla Sofía Gascón won’t be attending. A Complete Unknown had initially shown promise due to its guild nominations a while ago, but since then, it hasn’t managed to secure any major awards, leading me to believe that this competition might boil down to Timothée Chalamet.

To my astonishment, numerous knowledgeable critics are forecasting a victory for the musical Wicked. The reasoning behind this is solid: Similar to several previous SAG winners, Wicked is a popular, mainstream production distributed by a major studio, and it garnered enough support from guild voters to nominate Jonathan Bailey in the Best Supporting Actor category. With its large, vibrant cast and, I must add, relatively straightforward feel, the musical aligns with SAG’s historical preferences. If this comes to pass, it would resemble a Hidden Figures-style win rather than a CODA -type win. On the upside, it would also make Bowen Yang the first former Vulture recapper to receive a SAG Award.

It’s particularly captivating to discuss “Conclave,” which is currently basking in the glory of its BAFTA Best Picture victory. This papal drama has been garnering attention with Best Ensemble awards at events like Critics Choice and the National Board of Review. Its ensemble cast, widely regarded as the most balanced among all nominees, is a quality that Screen Actors Guild (SAG) voters often favor. If “Conclave” secures another win within a week, it would mirror the kind of late surge in momentum not seen since… well, “Conclave” itself. This could lend more credence to Michael Schulman’s theory that each Best Picture campaign this year mirrors its film’s narrative. In such a scenario, we might be witnessing a close race between “Conclave” and “Anora” for the Best Picture award.

If you’d prefer a low-key Oscar pool, consider supporting “Anora” to win. Although it lost at BAFTA, Sean Baker’s film has the most awards overall. Interestingly, Madison also secured a nomination for Best Actress at BAFTA. The Academy might lean towards “Anora”, as it portrays an unlikely family bond by the end of the movie, bringing together its goons, girl, and gangsters into something akin to a family unit. While “Anora” hasn’t seemed unbeatable this season, if it wins at SAG, adding another guild trophy to its collection, it will be hard to bet against it in the Oscars.

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2025-02-22 18:55