On June 11th, the ‘Reality/Resistance’ report, the 12th from Nostradamus and industry forecasts, will make its debut at Madrid’s ECAM Forum Co-Production Market following a previous appearance in Cannes. As media analyst and author Johanna Koljonen points out, this is not a summons to despair but rather an invitation for active participation.
The report, produced by Sweden’s Göteborg Film Festival after extensive research and discussions with key figures in the film industry, provides useful suggestions for navigating future challenges and adapting to more difficult circumstances, given global crises and significant transformations within the field.
Key suggestions include:
Employing tales as a means, either overtly or covertly, to safeguard democracy and uphold journalistic autonomy.
*Revisiting the development process by employing “flexible, interdisciplinary strategies,” like continuous testing, to effectively address real-life limitations and unleash creative possibilities.
*Revisiting the distribution, advertising, and marketing approach by collaboratively exploring new methods for increasing visibility, cultivating audiences, and devising release strategies.
The author proposes that we should adopt creative narratives, given the possible decline of Hollywood’s cultural influence, since homegrown stories are increasingly prevalent.
1. Enhancing international cooperation and actively discussing particular risk situations with organizations and business allies.
2. Boosting multinational teamwork and initiating productive dialogues regarding certain risk incidents with establishments and peers in the sector.
3. Fortifying collaborative efforts across borders and engaging in forward-looking discussions about specific risk events with institutions and industry counterparts.
4. Strengthening international partnerships and proactively discussing specific risk situations with organizations and industry contacts.
5. Increasing cross-border collaboration and holding constructive conversations about particular risk scenarios with institutions and professional partners in the field.
Notable figures consulted for the report are Morad Koufane from France Télévisions, Marianne Furevold-Boland of NRK, Ted Miller representing Triangle Management Partners, producers Roman Paul of Razor Films and Katarina Tomkova from Punkchart Films, Tamara Tatishvili with the Rotterdam-Hubert Bals Fund, as well as screenwriter/audience designer Samya Hafsaoui.
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Key figures who contributed to the report are Morad Koufane (France Télévisions), Marianne Furevold-Boland (NRK), agent Ted Miller of Triangle Management Partners, producers Roman Paul from Razor Films and Katarina Tomkova at Punkchart Films, Tamara Tatishvili with the Rotterdam-Hubert Bals Fund, and screenwriter/audience designer Samya Hafsaoui.
Regarding our partnership with the ECAM Forum, Spain’s premier co-production market, Josef Kullengård from the Göteborg Film Festival expressed his excitement: “For quite some time, we’ve been sharing the Nostradamus report throughout Europe. With its growing influence and popularity over the past ten years, this project has become a cornerstone of our activities. We’re thrilled to bring it to the ECAM Forum.
Currently, as our industry undergoes numerous transformations – technological, economic, and structural – the importance of teamwork and strategic planning has never been more crucial. Gatherings like this provide us with a unique opportunity to interact with influential figures spanning the entire value chain and various geographical regions, which is precisely what the Nostradamus project aspires to foster.
The full report is available here.
As I stand on the brink of my Nostradamus-themed talk at Madrid’s Cineteca Matadero, I find myself reflecting on the methodologies and crucial insights gleaned from my extensive research, all of which I am eager to share with my fellow cinephiles.
What method did you use to determine the primary topic ‘Reality/Resistance’ and its corresponding sections in this report, backed by insights from key industry interview participants?
The interviews usually begin with an exploratory approach, focusing on discovering what people are worried or enthusiastic about. As the discussion progresses, relevant themes naturally arise from the conversation. It’s as if we’re practicing alchemy during the process, but once we’ve identified a trend, it becomes clear and apparent that it’s prevalent in many places – essentially, when something is part of the cultural atmosphere (zeitgeist), it seems to appear more frequently.
This year, we initiated a discussion at the Göteborg Festival with 30 executives, held in a private and informal setting called a fishbowl. The purpose was to gauge the general sentiment within the industry. A significant topic that emerged was democratic regression. Another point of interest was the hurdles faced when attempting to modernize industry practices, while simultaneously maintaining a broad strategic outlook to develop capacity and resilience for future challenges. It’s also challenging to accomplish any of these goals when the industry, our organizations, and individual projects are regularly embroiled in short-term crises.
Each interviewee tackled issues from distinct angles – a common theme being the recognition that we understand what requires alteration, yet expect other sectors to act first or assume the audience will adapt to our needs. This is not a viable strategy for change. Instead, we should initiate transformations in areas where we hold influence and commit to catering to the audience proactively, rather than passively waiting for them to approach us.
In your opening, you note that the Nostradamus report has always had a political bent. However, could we argue that this year’s edition is more politically charged than any other, given the current trend of democratic regression? Moreover, you do touch on Donald Trump frequently within the report…
From a personal perspective, I’ve always found it illogical to examine our sector solely from a market standpoint in the European context, given that an overwhelming portion of our financing is public funds. This inherently brings politics into the picture, making it equally crucial as audience success and production volume for comprehending the landscape. Moreover, it underscores the fact that cultural value and artistic impact significantly influence the stability of the funding as well.
On a global scale, the pandemic has served as a stark reminder of our tangible presence in the real world. We’ve come to realize our dependence on stability in international supply chains and global markets, and how susceptible we are to unforeseen events such as extreme weather or epidemic diseases like COVID-19.
This year, the rise of leaders who exhibit greater autocratic tendencies or erratic behavior poses a challenge to traditional forecasting methods. These unpredictable leaders can disrupt macroeconomic patterns, causing them to become unbalanced – similar to how Putin’s war had not only its primary negative impact but also brought about secondary issues like inflation. Trump’s unconventional tariff policies carry the risk of destabilizing the global economy, although I fervently hope that it won’t. Regardless of the outcome, this uncertainty affects investments, markets, and Wall Street significantly. Furthermore, since our European content markets are largely controlled by publicly-traded U.S. companies, Trump’s actions receive extensive coverage in these reports.
Given the current unstable situation, do you believe that European institutions can provide direction and help maintain balance?
It’s wonderful to consider that idea, but I have reservations because national institutions and funds often have numerous duties, making them slow to adjust to changing market conditions or innovative production methods, such as new pipelines. This can be justified if their local operations depend entirely on them for survival. However, the current political climate is marked by populism, which increases the risk of budget cuts, making these institutions especially vulnerable at this time.
Occasionally, I inquire from the heads of public funding bodies: What projects would your organization undertake or money allocate, if you were certain it wouldn’t exist in a decade? While we must strive to preserve our institutions – such as funds, public service broadcasters, festivals, film schools, archives – I believe that these entities and the broader sector should focus on strengthening their capabilities and financial resilience for the time when not all these institutions can operate as they do today.
In simpler terms, a pioneering thought proposes revising our approach to growth and implementing tests to verify theories. Can you elaborate more on this specific aspect?
It’s hardly a revolutionary concept! The conventional wisdom in our field about the proper methods of development is outdated. However, almost everyone I discuss this with concurs on what isn’t effective today. Interestingly, those who are succeeding or even flourishing now seem to already be adhering to the suggestions made in the report. This observation holds true for the chapter on distribution and marketing as well; these issues are largely resolved, we just need to apply the right strategies. In simpler terms, we’re not doing the correct things, but the solutions are out there.
The idea is to rethink business and creative growth as a process of testing ideas, rather than pushing for commercial concessions. This approach is more often linked with design, but it aligns well with the film and TV industry because testing is already a crucial part of our pre-production and production stages.
Personally, I believe that many professionals are open to experimenting with tools and strategies proven effective, providing their colleagues and organizational climates support such exploration, and if they’re afforded the opportunity to invest time and resources in learning new skills or adapting differently. In this regard, I think public funding could play a significant role by offering the necessary means for individuals and organizations to innovate and grow.
In your presentation at the ECAM Forum in Madrid, are you demonstrating a model of international cooperation, production, and education that could strengthen the European industry’s ability to adapt and withstand challenges?
This event is fantastic! However, whether it fosters resilience largely depends on the attendees. Tamara Tatishvili, in a report quote, emphasizes that while industry experts may seem knowledgeable during panel discussions, they should not be mistaken for actually implementing changes in their professional practices. Instead, listening more than speaking might be the key to finding a sustainable career or business path in this environment. The good thing is that many of our significant and minor problems already have effective solutions. The downside is that innovation frequently originates from unconventional sources that are often overlooked. To move forward, we should prioritize listening less to traditional decision-makers discussing issues and more to those already practicing unconventional approaches, in order to quickly expand these innovative solutions.
Could you share your thoughts about the Spanish audiovisual sector and the prospects for non-English language media in general?
I’ve taken a break from exploring deeply for quite some time, but I’m eager to learn more on my own! Currently, there seems to be an opportunity for non-U.S. mainstream content and niche content, as well as unique voices, to expand their international reach. This situation presents a favorable context for Spain, given its established industry, abundant talent, and the widespread use of Spanish as a language. While it’s true that speaking a global language like Spanish is beneficial, it’s less crucial now due to the rapid advancement of localization technologies.
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2025-06-10 20:17