Netflix’s Unlikely Oscar Juggernaut

by

This week marks a decade since Netflix released its first original feature film, *Beasts of No Nation*. The movie, directed by Cary Joji Fukunaga and starring Idris Elba, gained attention during awards season and earned Elba a Screen Actors Guild Award. While it didn’t receive any Oscar nominations, it paved the way for Netflix’s future success. Three years later, after investing heavily in publicity and hiring awards expert Lisa Tayback, Netflix landed its first Best Picture Oscar nomination with Alfonso Cuarón’s *Roma*. Since then, Netflix has become a major player at the Academy Awards, receiving ten Best Picture nominations and consistently having a film in contention every year since 2018 – a feat achieved by only two other distributors.

Everything is looking good for Netflix, except they still haven’t won the Academy Award for Best Picture. They’ve been close many times – films have been early frontrunners, critically acclaimed at festivals, and gained momentum late in the season. In fact, Netflix films have received the most nominations overall four times in the last seven years. However, they haven’t actually won the award yet, while newer competitors like Apple, Neon, and A24 have. Will next year finally be their year?

The Early Front-runners

Netflix continues to release a large number of films – over 120 in 2024 alone – which means they’ll have many potential award winners this season. The challenge is predicting which films will stand out. As 2025 begins, Netflix boasts an impressive lineup of projects from acclaimed, Oscar-winning directors, and experts believe these titles are the most likely contenders:

I’m really excited about Guillermo del Toro’s take on *Frankenstein*. Knowing his work, and that he’s an Oscar winner, I’m expecting a visually stunning and genuinely creepy movie – he just *gets* gothic horror, and I can’t wait to see what he does with the story.

I was so excited when I heard about Noah Baumbach’s new film, *Jay Kelly*! You might know him from *Marriage Story*, which was incredible and got a ton of Oscar attention. This new one, starring George Clooney, is about a famous actor looking back on his life and career. Honestly, it feels like a guaranteed Oscar contender – it just seems perfectly made for Academy voters.

Kathryn Bigelow, the Academy Award-winning director, is back with *A House of Dynamite*, a new film exploring the intense realities of global conflict and escalating international pressure.

➼ Ballad of a Small Player is a gripping drama centered around a professional gambler. It comes from director Edward Berger, known for his acclaimed film All Quiet on the Western Front, and stars Colin Farrell, who recently received an Oscar nomination for The Banshees of Inisherin. Both Berger and Farrell are fresh in the minds of Academy voters.

The newest Benoit Blanc mystery, titled *Wake Up, Dead Man*, comes from writer and director Rian Johnson, who has twice been nominated for an Academy Award for his screenwriting.

Nouvelle Vague, a documentary by Oscar-nominated director Richard Linklater, explores the French New Wave film movement and the creation of the classic film *Breathless*. Netflix acquired the film after it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival.

I just heard about a new drama called *Train Dreams* that premiered at Sundance, and it’s getting a lot of buzz. What’s especially exciting is that it’s from the same team who made *Sing Sing*, which was nominated for an Oscar last year – they really know how to tell a compelling story!

The Midseason Survivors

Putting aside the enthusiastic reactions in some cities, audience responses varied quite a bit. In Venice, viewers loved *House of Dynamite* but weren’t as impressed with *Frankenstein* or *Jay Kelly*. Telluride audiences enjoyed *Jay Kelly* – possibly because the film featured a famous, wealthy character – while *Frankenstein* saw a comeback in Toronto, finishing as a runner-up for the People’s Choice Award. However, *House of Dynamite* didn’t fare as well at the New York Film Festival, at least with critics. Both Toronto and Telluride audiences seemed to dislike *Ballad of a Small Player*.

While fall film festivals were generating buzz (and sometimes mixed reactions) for films on streaming, other movies were gaining strong praise and Oscar attention. Chloe Zhao’s *Hamnet* deeply moved viewers at Telluride and Toronto, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s *One Battle After Another* received rave reviews and is a frontrunner for awards. Last week, *Marty Supreme* unexpectedly premiered at the New York Film Festival to overwhelmingly positive reactions. While the hype around these films will likely settle, these three – along with *Sinners* from earlier in the year – are emerging as the top contenders for the Oscars. Netflix will need a strong campaign this fall to build momentum, as they didn’t generate as much buzz at the festivals. Here’s my assessment of the current awards landscape.

Okay, so “Jay Kelly” isn’t blowing anyone away with a Metascore of 62, but honestly, I think it’s Netflix’s strongest contender for a Best Picture nod. Why? Because Hollywood *loves* movies about itself, especially actors. Dig a little deeper than the score and you’ll find most critics weren’t saying it was *bad*, just that Baumbach played it a little safe. Clooney delivers a really nuanced performance as a reflective actor grappling with past choices – choices that have understandably hurt his kids. But the film doesn’t portray him as a villain, or even a particularly bad guy, which is maybe why it didn’t fully *wow* critics, but could appeal to Academy voters.

Some critics think Noah Baumbach might be going easy on the film industry, but Academy voters could see that as a positive. Strong performances, especially from George Clooney and Adam Sandler, are also boosting the film’s chances. Clooney delivers one of his best performances in years, and the role seems tailor-made for him. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of buzz around Adam Sandler finally getting an Oscar nomination. While his performance as Clooney’s manager is more understated than some predicted, it’s strong enough to support a campaign if voters feel he deserves recognition.

The movie *Frankenstein* had the potential to be a huge hit, especially if released during a time when audiences were eager for exciting, visually stunning films. Film festivals often feature serious, slow-paced dramas, so a monster movie directed by Guillermo Del Toro should have been a real standout. *The Shape of Water* benefited from this in 2017, eventually winning Best Picture. However, *Frankenstein* has received mostly lukewarm reviews – IndieWire called it ‘solid but unremarkable’ – and a surprisingly negative reaction overall. While Oscar Isaac’s performance and the visuals are good, they haven’t generated much excitement.

Everyone agrees that Jacob Elordi’s performance as the monster is outstanding. Despite heavy makeup and gore, he brought a surprising depth and humanity to both his character and the entire film. If Netflix can keep the spotlight on Elordi in the early episodes and capitalize on Guillermo del Toro’s technical skill during awards season, they might just have a contender for a Best Picture nomination – and the Academy needs ten films to fill that category.

Kathryn Bigelow’s new film, A House of Dynamite, has received a very mixed reaction from critics. It was highly praised at the Venice Film Festival, especially by American reviewers, who appreciated its gripping portrayal of a potential nuclear attack from the perspective of those in charge of defense. However, when shown at the New York Film Festival, critics were less impressed, finding its complex, three-part structure and sudden ending disappointing. Despite this, Netflix is hoping the film will still be a hit with viewers when it begins streaming.

I really wish Netflix would promote *Train Dreams* more. It’s a beautiful and moving story about a logger (Joel Edgerton) in the early 1900s American West, and it’s the only one of Netflix’s potential Oscar contenders that seems to have genuinely captured people’s hearts – that enthusiasm has lasted since its first showing at Sundance. While director Clint Bentley and co-writer Greg Kwedar received an Oscar nomination last year for *Sing Sing*, they aren’t as well-known as directors like Guillermo del Toro or Kathryn Bigelow. Joel Edgerton gives an amazing, though understated, performance. Actors have been nominated for Oscars with much smaller roles than his, but the awards voters might need some encouragement to notice it.

This film really needs a strong marketing push to get people to see it. However, if Netflix decides to highlight its unique charm, there’s a compelling story to be told about a small movie succeeding against the odds.

It’s unlikely that Edward Berger’s *The Ballad of a Small Player* will be a major contender during awards season. *Nouvelle Vague*, like many films set in Paris, is expected to focus its efforts on awards for costume and set design. *Wake Up Dead Man*, releasing in December, probably won’t surpass *Glass Onion*’s Oscar success – a single nomination for its screenplay. This is a shame, as Josh O’Connor delivers a standout performance, and Glenn Close gives one of her best performances in years, even compared to her recent Oscar-nominated work.

The October Standout

Let’s not forget one more film: *KPop Demon Hunters*, which has become Netflix’s biggest hit of 2025. This animated superhero fantasy, directed by Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans, quickly became a sensation after its release in June. Its songs, especially the popular track “Golden,” topped the music charts, and a sing-along theatrical release in August earned $18 million. With few animated hits this year—as studios focused on live-action remakes of classics like *Lilo & Stitch* and *How to Train Your Dragon*—*KPop Demon Hunters* stands out as the likely winner for best animated movie of the year.

Okay, so I’m not rich, but if I were, I’d put everything on *KPop Demon Hunters* to win Oscars for both Best Animated Feature *and* Best Original Song! Netflix is absolutely killing it with their campaign so far. Honestly, the karaoke party they threw for the movie during the Toronto Film Festival was the highlight of the whole event, and it kept everyone talking about *KPop Demon Hunters* even though it didn’t actually screen at the festival. I’m seriously rooting for it!

Last year, a vibrant and empowering story about women resonated with audiences and earned a Best Picture nomination. Now, everyone seems to assume the upcoming film *Wicked: For Good* will achieve similar Oscar recognition. But why not consider the possibility that *KPop Demon Hunters* could be the surprise nominee? It’s October – a time to welcome the unexpected.

Best Picture

Up ⬆ Sinners

I think awards attention mostly comes from people in the film industry genuinely loving certain movies. However, a lot of it also relies on clever publicity. A good way to gauge which films are gaining momentum is to see which ones start winning seemingly minor awards at smaller film festivals and early award shows. Recently, the Gotham Awards announced they’ll be honoring Ryan Coogler’s *Sinners* with an award recognizing the film’s ensemble cast.

Up ⬆ Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro’s upcoming film, *Frankenstein*, will be honored with a special tribute at the Gotham Awards. And with that, awards season is officially underway!

Current Predix

Here’s a list of book titles: Bugonia, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, and Wicked: For Good.

Best Director

Up ⬆ Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Roxana Hadadi’s recent article highlights the unique talent of Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi. His strong reputation could significantly improve his odds of winning an Academy Award in 2025 or 2026, especially with his new thriller, *It Was Just an Accident*. The film, which already earned the Palme d’Or at Cannes, is now being released in American cinemas.

Current Predix

Recent films include Chloe Zhao’s *Hamnet*, Jafar Panahi’s *It Was Just an Accident*, Paul Thomas Anderson’s *One Battle After Another*, Joachim Trier’s *Sentimental Value*, and Ryan Coogler’s *Sinners*.

Best Actor

Down ⬇ Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Will Arnett isn’t *bad* in Bradley Cooper’s *Is This Thing On?*, which closed the New York Film Festival last week. However, his performance isn’t quite the standout needed to compete with actors like Leonardo DiCaprio, Timothée Chalamet, and George Clooney. It also doesn’t reach the level of Michael B. Jordan’s captivating dual role in *Sinners*, which has been praised by critics like Dana Stevens of Slate, who called Jordan “a classic Hollywood movie star,” and David Ehrlich of IndieWire, who described his performance as “immaculate.”

Current Predix

Timothée Chalamet appeared in *Marty Supreme*, George Clooney in *Jay Kelly*, Leonardo DiCaprio in *One Battle After Another*, Michael B. Jordan in *Sinners*, and Jeremy Allen White in *Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere*.

Best Actress

Up ⬆ Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

The most pleasant surprise in this film, which follows a man (Will Arnett) navigating divorce and a new career in stand-up comedy, is its focus on the marriage itself, rather than the comedy. Laura Dern delivers a fantastic, nuanced performance as his wife and truly deserves to be recognized with an award.

Current Predix

The following actors and their respective films have been announced: Jessie Buckley in *Hamnet*, Cynthia Erivo in *Wicked: For Good*, Chase Infiniti in *One Battle After Another*, Renate Reinsve in *Sentimental Value*, and Emma Stone in *Bugonia*.

Best Supporting Actor

Up ⬆ Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

I’ve always been a huge fan of Jacob Elordi, and I honestly thought I was alone in wanting to see him nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his work in *Frankenstein*. The movie’s dialogue can be a little flat at times, but he really brings it to life! It’s so exciting to discover I’m not the only one championing him – apparently, there are loads of us who feel the same way, and it’s a really encouraging sign during awards season!

Down ⬇ Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Look, I still wouldn’t rule Jeremy Strong out, but something about his performance in the film felt surprisingly understated. I was really surprised they cut that powerful monologue about fixing the floor from the trailer! He’s solid, and I appreciate that he wasn’t showy, but he kind of repeated the same emotional beat throughout the movie. Honestly, it makes it tough to see him winning over some of the other incredibly strong contenders this year.

Current Predix

The cast includes Benicio del Toro in *One Battle After Another*, Delroy Lindo in *Sinners*, Paul Mescal in *Hamnet*, Sean Penn also in *One Battle After Another*, and Stellan Skarsgard in *Sentimental Value*.

Best Supporting Actress

Up ⬆ Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

I’m still not entirely convinced *Wicked: For Good* will be as successful as the first movie, especially since people weren’t expecting much from the original. However, I probably shouldn’t have left Ariana Grande out of my predictions – the second half of *Wicked* will give her a real chance to win an award.

Up ⬆ Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Wow, the Supporting Actress race is *packed* this year! Everyone keeps mentioning Regina Hall to me, and honestly, I’m a huge fan. I thought her work in ‘One Battle After Another’ was fantastic. My concern is that her role, while great, might not be substantial enough to really stand out amongst so many other deserving actresses. Still, the fact that people keep bringing her up tells me her performance really resonated with audiences. I think she’ll have a solid base of support throughout awards season, and that’s something you can’t dismiss.

Current Predix

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas stars in *Sentimental Value*, Amy Madigan in *Weapons*, Wunmi Mosaku in *Sinners*, Ariana Grande in *Wicked: For Good*, and Teyana Taylor in *One Battle After Another*.

Read More

2025-10-18 01:01