As a movie buff, I’m thrilled to share that my predictions for the global box office in 2025 have seen an upgrade! Originally forecasted at $33 billion in December, Gower Street Analytics now projects a whopping $34.1 billion. This significant boost is primarily thanks to the extraordinary success of the Chinese animated blockbuster “Ne Zha 2.” Now sitting comfortably among the top 5 highest-grossing films ever made worldwide, it’s safe to say that this cinematic sensation has left a lasting impression on global audiences!
The newly disclosed figures, unveiled during CinemaCon in Las Vegas (April 1-5), predict a rise by 13% compared to 2024 and a slight 0.5% boost from 2023. However, this optimistic projection remains 13% below the average of the three years preceding the pandemic (2017-2019) at current exchange rates.
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The freshly published figures, presented at CinemaCon in Las Vegas from April 1 to 5, suggest a 13% jump from 2024 and a minimal 0.5% rise from 2023. Yet, this revised estimate is still 13% below the average of the three years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019) when considering current exchange rates.
The projected earnings from China’s box office have undergone a substantial upgrade, increasing by $1 billion to an estimated $7.6 billion. This new figure is solely attributable to the success of “Ne Zha 2.” With this revision, China’s cinematic market would be approximately 30% ahead of the projected 2024 numbers. However, it would still trail behind the 2023 projections by a narrow 1%, though this translates to a 1% increase when considering current exchange rates.
In the meantime, the projected sales for the North American market have been slightly adjusted downwards, from $9.7 billion to $9.5 billion. Although Q1’s performance was within expectations, a lack of standout successes in early 2025 has led to this minor decrease. The forecast still indicates an 8% rise compared to 2024 and a 5% growth from 2023, but it remains 17% lower than the pre-pandemic norms.
As a movie critic, I’d say: “Globally, excluding China, box office earnings saw a modest boost of $200 million, reaching an impressive total of $17 billion. If international currencies had been stronger against the US dollar, we could have seen a staggering additional $500 million. However, first-quarter results fell short of expectations, resulting in a performance-based cutback of around $300 million.
Gower Street’s predictions are made using data from our main Forecast service, along with professional analysis that takes into account the upcoming release schedule for the rest of 2025.
This week, the worldwide movie industry is set to delve into these forecasts and other topics at Cinema United’s (previously known as The National Association of Theatre Owners) yearly gathering in Las Vegas.
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2025-03-30 20:16