The pronouncements of chief US equity strategists, particularly those residing within the gilded towers of Goldman Sachs, are, of course, to be taken with a grain of salt – or perhaps a whole shaker. One such strategist, a Mr. David Kostin, has recently deigned to share his insights with the common man via CNBC.
Mr. Kostin, with the air of a man who knows precisely which fork to use for the escargots, suggests that “hard data” – a vulgar term, really – may soon eclipse the “soft data” that has been causing such unseemly jitters amongst the investor class. One shudders to think of the implications.
“Well, the equity market traditionally trades more on the soft data than on the hard data. And the expectation is that we’ve had a weak bout of soft data—maybe some of that may be turning…” One can almost hear the clinking of champagne flutes as he speaks. 🥂
Apparently, we are to brace ourselves for a brief period of unpleasantness, a sort of tariff-induced purgatory, before the S&P 500 ascends to the dizzying heights of a 10% performance. And, crucially, a recession is simply not on the cards – at least, not according to Goldman’s meticulously crafted, no doubt entirely unbiased, “base case forecast.” How very reassuring. 🙄
“In the next month or two, you get some hard data. It will be weaker. You get some uncertainty around the earnings. The blackout period for company share repurchases basically ends later this week or the early part of next week. In terms of the month before earnings season, companies are still able to repurchase – discretionarily – their shares.
So these are some of the variables, the signposts you’re looking at. We’re looking at them, clients are looking at them. Looking out further into next year, the economy is likely to continue to grow. We don’t have a recession in the forecast – that’s not the base case. And therefore, you’ve got earnings growth. Seven per cent this year, another 7% next year. That lifts the market to around 6500. A veritable cornucopia of prosperity, it seems. One almost feels guilty for doubting. Almost. 🤔
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2025-06-10 21:41