There’s been considerable discussion surrounding the box office potential of Star Wars, but a closer look at the film’s history reveals that Disney doesn’t rely on its new project being a blockbuster. Star Wars has been a dominant global brand ever since the groundbreaking first film debuted in 1977, consistently captivating audiences for decades. The initial trilogy is now considered a cornerstone of science fiction cinema, and even the prequels and sequels – which received a more varied response – were massive, unforgettable cultural moments, with impacts still felt today.
After everything that’s happened, it’s somewhat surprising that the upcoming The Mandalorian and Grogu doesn’t feel like a major event. Even spin-off films like Rogue One: A Star Wars Story were culturally significant and earned over $1 billion worldwide. Star Wars is always a big deal, but the franchise’s return to theaters for the first time since 2019 has been muted by the fact that the new film feels like a continuation of the TV spin-off. Instead of an epic story of Jedi and Sith battling for dominance, the upcoming film appears to be a simple extension of the popular Disney+ series The Mandalorian. Considering this, Disney doesn’t necessarily *need* this movie to be a blockbuster for a few reasons.
The Mandalorian And Grogu Was Originally A Fourth Season Of The Disney+ Series
The Mandalorian and Grogu was initially planned as a single television season. In 2023, Jon Favreau shared that the scripts were already completed. After three popular seasons on Disney+, the company had already allocated funds for developing this series. The Mandalorian is a costly production, with each season estimated to cost around $120 million. Disney has made substantial investments in its streaming content, and even larger budgets were dedicated to other shows on the platform, like the popular series Andor. Other shows, including The Acolyte, were also quite expensive, reportedly costing $230.1 million.
As a big Mandalorian fan, I found the reported cost of the movie really interesting. Apparently, it came in at around $166 million *after* tax credits, which makes it the cheapest Star Wars film Disney has made so far! What’s even more surprising is that it’s only about $46 million more than what each season of the TV show costs. It seems Disney really treated this movie like an extension of the series, continuing the work of Jon Favreau and Dave Filoni and just shifting it to a theatrical release. Taking all that effort and putting it on the big screen feels like a huge win with very little risk, honestly.
Even If It Doesn’t Hit In Theatres, The New Movie Will Be Huge On Disney+
The Mandalorian and Grogu was created using a similar approach to The Mandalorian, meaning its success on Disney+ is more significant than whether it’s shown in cinemas. Disney+ had previously invested a comparable amount in a streaming series offered to subscribers at no extra charge. What truly matters is the public’s awareness and continued interest in the Star Wars brand. On Disney+, the key distinction between a fourth season and a movie is just the length; a series can maintain a longer presence in popular culture. That said, theatrical releases are still important, and even unsuccessful movies often perform exceptionally well on streaming platforms.
There are several reasons to worry about how well the film will do in theaters. The movie feels very similar to the Disney+ series, and without a strong reason for people to see it in a cinema, many viewers might not understand why they need to go to the big screen. It’s highly probable that more people than usual will skip seeing it in theaters, planning to watch it on streaming, just as they’ve been enjoying these characters until now. This could hurt the film’s performance in cinemas, but it should guarantee a huge debut on streaming platforms.
When The Mandalorian and Grogu becomes available on Disney+, it will likely be a much bigger deal than just another season of the show. It’s designed to be easier to enjoy and more self-contained. While there’s some question about whether people will go to theaters to see it, the movie will feel much more inviting on Disney+, even for those who haven’t watched all three seasons. Also, the buzz created by its theatrical release will help boost its popularity when it starts streaming, making The Mandalorian and Grogu feel like a major event by the time it arrives on the service, even if its box office performance isn’t record-breaking.
What’s Most Important Is That The New Star Wars Movie Is Good
The reception to recent Star Wars films has been inconsistent, and this is a problem that needs addressing. The first film in the new series, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was very popular, but viewers have grown skeptical about how the studio has managed the franchise. Star Wars: The Last Jedi did well financially, however, certain creative decisions upset many dedicated fans. This trend continued with the disappointing box office results of Solo: A Star Wars Story, and a noticeable decline in viewership for the concluding film of the Skywalker Saga, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Although that final installment still earned over $1 billion, it received largely negative reviews from both critics and audiences, further damaging the brand’s reputation.
Star Wars continues to spark debate. Recent series like Obi-Wan Kenobi and The Acolyte received very mixed reactions, and Ahsoka primarily appealed to those already familiar with The Clone Wars. Andor was highly praised, but it focused on a mature storyline and targeted a different audience, making it unsuitable for younger viewers. The Mandalorian stands out as the only Star Wars project that truly aimed for and achieved broad appeal. While its first two seasons were hugely successful and well-received, the third season generally wasn’t as strong.
| Movie | Year Of Original Release | Worldwide Box Office |
|---|---|---|
| Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | 2019 | $1.06 billion |
| Solo: A Star Wars Story | 2018 | $393 million |
| Star Wars: The Last Jedi | 2017 | $1.32 billion |
| Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 2016 | $1.05 billion |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens | 2015 | $2.05 billion |
| Star Wars: The Clone Wars | 2008 | $68 million |
| Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith | 2005 | $902 million |
| Star Wars: Attack of the Clones | 2002 | $656 million |
| Star Wars: The Phantom Menace | 1999 | $1.04 billion |
| Star Wars: Return of the Jedi | 1983 | $482 million |
| Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back | 1980 | $549 million |
| Star Wars: A New Hope | 1977 | $775 million |
Luckily, The Mandalorian and Grogu has an opportunity to regain audience trust. If the movie lives up to the quality of the show’s first two seasons, people are likely to reconnect with the Star Wars franchise. This will significantly improve the outlook for the future. It’s crucial to win back casual viewers to the Star Wars universe, and The Mandalorian and Grogu has a big role to play in restoring faith in the brand. Any financial success the film achieves in theaters will simply be an added benefit to the positive impression it makes.
Disney Is Pivoting To More Theatrical Releases, And That Bet Has Paid Off
The Mandalorian season 4 wasn’t expected to earn much money in theaters, so turning it into a movie is simply a way for Disney to make extra profit. Disney has been doing this more and more lately, realizing that shows made for streaming aren’t as profitable as they initially thought. This is similar to what happened with The Mandalorian and Grogu, which started as a streaming show but became a movie during production. That movie earned over $1 billion in theaters, which was a welcome surprise before it also became a major success on Disney+.
These streaming projects are already in development and funded, and shifting to a theatrical release before streaming has proven to be a very effective strategy with minimal risk. While releasing a film in theaters requires some marketing investment, it doesn’t need to be massive. Giving audiences the chance to see these projects on the big screen before they become available on the streaming service they were initially intended for is a wise decision. We saw this happen with Disney’s recent blockbuster, the live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch, which switched to a theatrical release during production. The film’s strong performance in theaters further boosted its numbers when it eventually became available for streaming.
Naturally, Disney hopes The Mandalorian and Grogu will be a huge financial success, but because it’s a streaming project, any money earned in theaters is just a bonus beyond their initial expectations. The movie is expected to perform well on streaming and attract new subscribers, similar to how the Disney+ series did. Even if The Mandalorian and Grogu ends up being the lowest-grossing live-action Star Wars film to date, it will still do well in theaters when it comes out next year, and that initial success will likely boost its performance even further when it’s eventually available on their streaming service.
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2025-09-29 20:12