Is Bitcoin About to Pull a Fast One? Find Out What’s Coming! 😱💰

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In the grand theater of the financial cosmos, where the stars align and the planets dance, an analyst from the illustrious CryptoQuant has donned his prophet’s robe, proclaiming that our dear Bitcoin (BTC) may soon succumb to the infamous “sell in May effect.” Ah, the irony! Just as the bull cycle seems to be frolicking in the meadows, it might be time for a little hibernation. 🐻

According to the sage Oinonen, BTC is destined for a languid summer, swaying gently like a lazy cat in the sun, only to awaken with a flourish in the last quarter of the year. One can almost hear the collective sigh of investors as they brace for the impending sell-off. 🌞

The Sell in May Effect

Ah, the “sell in May effect,” a quaint little notion that has tiptoed through the annals of traditional finance for centuries! It whispers sweet nothings about how stock market returns frolic merrily from November to April, only to sulk from May to October. It’s like a seasonal fruit that rots in the summer heat! 🍑

This investment strategy, as old as time itself, suggests that one should sell their stocks in May and wait for the autumn leaves to fall before reinvesting. A delightful little game of hide and seek with one’s money! 🎭

While this adage has primarily danced around the stock market, a recent revelation from the cryptocurrency oracle K33 has unveiled that buying BTC in October and selling in April has yielded a staggering 1,449% return from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, those who dared to buy in May and sell in September have faced a dismal -29%. Ouch! 😬

Bitcoin Still Has More Upside

In a twist of fate befitting a Dostoevskian novel, Oinonen insists that BTC will indeed rally by the last quarter of the year. The market has seen a delightful déjà vu of positive Q4 seasonality in years past—2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and now, perhaps, 2024. It’s like a recurring dream, but with more zeros! 💫

However, our wise analyst warns that while BTC may not plunge into the abyss for months, the specter of macro events and geopolitical tensions looms large, ready to pounce on risk-on assets like a cat on a laser pointer. 🐱

As it stands, BTC is currently lounging around the $97,000 mark, having reached a dizzying high of $109,000 in January. The specter of a technical correction hovers, but the halving cycle is far from its curtain call. 🎭

In comparison to the previous cycle, where BTC soared 686% between May 11, 2020, and November 8, 2021, our beloved cryptocurrency has only managed a modest 63% climb since the latest halving on April 20, 2024. Oinonen, with a twinkle in his eye, suggests that Bitcoin’s power-law model and the law of diminishing returns hint at a future of moderate price performance. Yet, the 63% rally still leaves plenty of room for upside, like a well-stuffed pastry waiting to burst! 🥐

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2025-02-18 18:54