Inside the Emmys Race to Take Down the ‘Big 4’ Comedies

We’re now two weeks into the Emmys season for “Gold Rush,” and you may have noticed me frequently using the term “The Big Four.” These are the shows: “Hacks,” “The Bear,” “Abbott Elementary,” and “Only Murders in the Building.” Over the past three years or so, these veteran shows have found favor not just with Emmy voters but also with other award-giving bodies in Hollywood. I find it hard to imagine a situation where none of them aren’t nominated again in July.

By grouping these four shows together, I’ve noticed a striking similarity: they represent the wide spectrum of comedies that Emmy voters have recognized and appreciated over the past few decades. Shows like Cheers and The Office, with their optimistic portrayal of workplaces, seem to find a parallel in the hopeful struggles of Abbott Elementary. The behind-the-scenes perspective that 30 Rock offered is echoed in both Hacks and Only Murders in the Building, while Hacks shares a sharp, satirical edge with shows like Veep. Lastly, The Bear stands out as a unique blend of comedy and auteurist quasi-dramas, incorporating elements from diverse series such as the moodiness of Transparent, the formal experimentation of Atlanta, and the heartwarming idealism of Ted Lasso.

To predict which four other shows could potentially win one of the eight Outstanding Comedy Series awards, it’s useful to consider the common traits these shows share with the “Big Four” and understand what may appeal to Emmy voters about them.

The Studio (Apple TV+)

Last week, we delved deep into the case for “The Studio,” a show that continues to impress with its unique blend of satire and optimism about Hollywood’s future. Set in 2025, it sheds light on the grim aspects of the entertainment industry while still holding onto a glimmer of hope for the value of the Hollywood project. Among all shows not belonging to the Big Four, “The Studio” seems to be the only one with a chance at an unexpected win, though it may seem unlikely. At the very least, it’s a strong contender for a Series nomination, and acting nominations could also be in its favor. With his previous Emmy nomination for “Pam & Tommy,” Seth Rogen is now facing stiff competition in the Comedy Actor category, as some spots are left open after Jeremy Allen White, Martin Short, and Steve Martin have been placed.

Last week we mentioned that Catherine O’Hara could be an unexpected contender to upset Hannah Einbinder’s anticipated Emmy victory in the Supporting Actress category. Although I find Kathryn Hahn’s character portrayal, a mix of Malcolm Tucker and Jojo Siwa’s head of marketing, rather excessive, Emmy voters sometimes appreciate performances that are over-the-top. Additionally, keep an eye on Ike Barinholtz in the Supporting Actor category, as he delivers his “creepy yet good guy” character particularly well, making him a strong candidate alongside Ebon Moss-Bachrach from ‘The Bear’, Paul W. Downs from ‘Hacks’, and Harrison Ford from ‘Shrinking’.

The key factors that could determine if these fresh comedies might take home a major prize are if they manage to secure nominations in the Directing or Writing categories, and fortunately, “The Studio” has a strategic advantage in this regard. The scriptwriting is intriguingly insider-y, which could resonate with voters in a town grappling with numerous identity crises. Notably, the single-take episode titled “The Oner” and the noir spoof “The Missing Reel” have a captivating quality that’s essential for standing out amidst the competition. Furthermore, the more unconventional episodes such as “The War” and those planned for the Golden Globes and CinemaCon are likely to generate even more buzz, showcasing the exceptional caliber of directing present in these productions.

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Previously, Apple’s show “Slow Horses” managed to enter the drama categories during the last awards season, marking a change after being overlooked by Emmy voters for two consecutive years. In the year prior, only Jason Segel and Jessica Williams were recognized for “Shrinking”‘s premiere season. Since that was also the time when “Ted Lasso” was believed to be wrapping up its run, another Bill Lawrence-Brett Goldstein production understandably took a backseat. However, following an Emmy season where it was ineligible due to production issues, “Shrinking” is back and seems to take a secondary role once again at Apple. Yet, unlike “Ted Lasso”, “Shrinking” now has a second season under its belt, which might have helped it gain more supporters within the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.

It’s advantageous that Harrison Ford is receiving a lot of consideration for the Supporting Actor category due to his popularity. This year, he was nominated for both the Golden Globe and SAG Awards, and his playful banter with co-star Jessica Williams during the “I’m an actor” opening act might have left a subtle impression on voters (Harrison Ford and Jessica Williams, they’re entertaining, they fit well at award ceremonies, we appreciate them). To explain it in Hollywood terms, Ted Lasso propelled Bill Lawrence into being an Emmy-winning TV creator. This status lends a certain amount of Emmy anticipation to his future projects, even if Shrinking seems more reminiscent of Cougar Town (complimentary!), Lawrence’s previous show that was overlooked by the Emmys.

Amongst a strong cast that includes Segel and Ford, I believe Jessica Williams stands out as the show’s most valuable player. She demonstrates her ability to handle quick wit and emotional depth simultaneously in many scenes. Michael Urie, who was unfortunately overlooked for his exceptional performance on Ugly Betty, is now up for Best Supporting Actor alongside Harrison Ford. In fact, they were both recognized with the Critics Choice award for best supporting performance earlier this year. While Ford delivered a powerful monologue in the season finale that left many hearts broken, Urie excelled in his comedic monologue, delivering it not just once but twice (and almost a third time) in one of the season’s most memorable running jokes.

A Man on the Inside (Netflix)

Mike Schur is back with another heartwarming comedy, this time revolving around an elderly protagonist disguised to uncover potential theft in a retirement home, reminiscent of the Oscar-nominated 2020 Chilean documentary titled “The Mole Agent.” Unlike its darker counterpart, A Man on the Inside maintains a lighter tone. The series marks another collaboration between Schur and Ted Danson following their work on The Good Place. As a Schur production, it promises to wrap up stories in a way that reinforces faith in human kindness, and provides an excellent opportunity for seasoned character actors such as Sally Struthers, John Getz, Margaret Avery, Susan Ruttan, Lori Tan Chinn, Veronica Cartwright, and Stephen McKinley Henderson to shine.

Mike Schur’s work, such as “Parks and Recreation,” “Brooklyn Nine-Nine,” and “The Good Place,” consistently garner some Emmy recognition but not as much as one might expect given their significant impact on the past decade of comedy television. It leaves one wondering if there is something about Schur’s comedic approach that prevents Emmy voters from fully embracing it. While his shows have a ‘nicecore’ leaning, this doesn’t seem to align with the recent success of “Ted Lasso” in Emmys. Why do Emmy voters seem to favor Bill Lawrence’s style over Schur’s? I can’t say for sure, but I’m looking forward to comparing the Emmy nominations for “A Man on the Inside” and “Shrinking” later in July to see if there are any noticeable differences.

If Schur and the Emmys maintain a frosty friendship, Ted Danson and the Emmys share a warmer bond. He’s won twice (for Cheers) and has been nominated 18 times, making you cherish him because his time may be limited. This show likely owes its best chance for a significant nomination to him. Unfortunately, the group of seasoned actresses doesn’t seem to have an undeniable standout performance, but if I could vote, I’d cast it for Margaret Avery.

Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

In the rom-com “When Rabbi Meets Shiksa,” performances by Adam Brody and Kristen Bell earned three Golden Globe nominations (Comedy Series, plus acting categories), three Critics Choice nominations (same categories), and SAG nods for both actors. The series “Nobody Wants This” appears to have the strongest indication that award voters are fond of this show, given its numerous nominations. However, it’s also one of the most contentious Comedy Series contenders, with debates about whether creator Erin Foster’s portrayal of Jewish women was antisemitic. Despite the controversy, attention is always valuable (except perhaps for “English Teacher”), especially when trying to compete against numerous other shows. Being a new series that aired months ago can often be a death knell for Emmy contention, but its precursor nominations could help keep “Nobody Wants This” on voters’ radars.

What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Discussing series that might slip from people’s minds: The final installments of “What We Do in the Shadows” aired in December, giving Emmy voters the opportunity to either acknowledge the vampire comedy one last time, or to focus on newer productions. After the Emmys awarded all categories to “Schitt’s Creek” for its swan song season, it seems like the Emmys only celebrate shows nearing their end. However, this is not always the case! Shows such as “Modern Family” and “Frasier,” the two most award-winning comedies of all time, saw their Emmy nominations dwindle in their final seasons. “Friends” didn’t win for its last year, despite having won the previous one. Unfortunately, “What We Do in the Shadows” might become a forgotten gem, which would mean that Matt Berry’s 2019 nomination could be his last for this show. Apologies to Vulture staffers if this turns out to be accurate.

The Four Seasons (Netflix)

In a seemingly fortuitous turn of events, the collaboration between Tina Fey and Steve Carell – two highly acclaimed comedic actors from the past two decades – might appear to be Netflix’s strategic move to grab the elusive Best Comedy Series trophy that they haven’t won yet. However, it’s more likely just a coincidence. The comedy series titled “The Four Seasons,” premiering on May 1st, is helmed by executive producers Fey, Tracy Wigfield (Great News), and Lane Fisher (Never Have I Ever). This production is a remake of the 1981 film of the same name featuring Alan Alda. The story revolves around three couples who are friends and go on four seasonal vacations together throughout the year. Given Fey’s impressive Emmy nomination count of 45 (winning nine times as an actor, writer, and producer) and Carell’s ten nominations, their presence is undeniably strong. They are joined by Colman Domingo, fresh from two consecutive Oscar-nominated performances, and Will Forte, who might have slipped your memory since his twice Emmy-nominated performance on The Last Man on Earth.

Étoile (Amazon)

In the movie “Independence Day,” as Vivica A. Fox introduced herself as a dancer, First Lady Mary McDonnell quipped something like, “Ah, ballet.” Now, Amy Sherman-Palladino and Daniel Palladino’s new series, focusing on dancers at esteemed New York and Paris ballet companies, is trying to pique Emmy voters’ interest in a genre that hasn’t traditionally appealed to them: the world of Upper West Side performing arts. Remember when the Golden Globes eagerly awarded Amazon’s “Mozart in the Jungle” as Best Musical/Comedy back in 2016? The Emmys then granted the show a solitary nomination for sound mixing. To find a series about dancers (even fictional ones) that Emmy voters embraced, you’d have to go all the way back to the early ’80s and the show “Fame.

Despite Amy Sherman-Palladino often feeling excluded by the Emmys following the overlooked “Gilmore Girls,” she made a significant impact with “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” Unlike “Étoile,” the unique topic of women navigating the male-dominated comedy world in the past provides an edge to “Maisel.” One advantage this new series holds is that it stars Luke Kirby, who received three nominations and a win for his role in “Maisel” as a guest actor. Perhaps voters will be eager to recognize him again. Additionally, the show has been renewed for a second season, potentially increasing its chances next time when there’s less competition.

Poker Face (Peacock)

It appears that Natasha Lyonne is more popular among Emmy voters than the shows she stars in, as shown by her previous Lead Actress nominations for “Russian Doll” and “Poker Face.” Although “Russian Doll” was recognized in the Comedy Series category, it lost to “Fleabag,” while “Poker Face” fell short at last year’s Emmys. It’s possible that Peacock is satisfied if “Poker Face” remains a critical darling rather than an Emmy contender, given its episodic format and numerous star-studded appearances. However, considering the guest cast for this season, which includes Margo Martindale, Carol Kane, John Mulaney, Melanie Lynskey, and recent Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo, I’d wager that Erivo might take home an Emmy this year.

The Residence (Netflix)

The Shondaland Netflix journey mirrors the thrilling ups-and-downs suggested by its title card. “Bridgerton” initially made a splashy entrance but has since become less recognized in award circles, at least for now. Contrastingly, “Inventing Anna” exceeded expectations during the 2022 Emmys, earning nominations for Limited Series and Lead Actress. The humorous murder-mystery series “The Residence,” starring Uzo Aduba as an eccentric detective in the White House, doesn’t seem to be garnering much Emmy attention at this point. However, given Shonda Rhimes’ history of surprising us, I ponder if she might do so once more with Aduba, who boasts five nominations and three wins in her career.

The main hurdle for “The Residence” to compete in the Comedy Series category might be Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building“, as Emmy voters seem to favor a humorous murder-mystery show. I personally believe that season one of “The Residence” was funnier and more engaging than season four of “Only Murders“, but Emmy voters often stick with their favorites. Furthermore, they have shown in the past that they are not fond of ensemble-focused shows (such as Apple’s similarly themed “The Afterparty“) that challenge the throne of “OMITB“.

Agatha All Along (Disney+)

Marvel’s revamped MCU strategy, unveiled a few months ago following the announcement of its post-Jonathan Majors era, appears to signal some level of retreat in the Disney+ arena. The company has reduced its TV commitments and so far, has not incorporated any actors from the Agatha All Along series into its “Doomsday Saga” plans. However, a new Daredevil series is on the horizon, and there’s persistent chatter about an upcoming Young Avengers project, which could potentially feature Billy Maximoff (Joe Locke) from Agatha, either in a film or TV production.

In terms of awards contention, Agatha All Along is not generating the same level of excitement as WandaVision did in 2021. However, the first season was widely praised, boasting strong reviews and impressive performances, particularly from Patti LuPone. Even so, considering how long ago the season aired and the ongoing negative buzz surrounding Marvel productions, it’s unlikely that Agatha All Along will receive significant awards recognition. Interestingly, its chances might have been higher if it wasn’t getting a second season and could be considered as a limited series instead.

Somebody Somewhere and The Righteous Gemstones (HBO)

These two shows, “Somebody Somewhere” and “The Righteous Gemstones,” have found themselves in a similar situation because they were overlooked by HBO’s budget allocation for awards. Consequently, they’ve been disregarded by the Emmys throughout their entire run. As I mentioned earlier, the Emmy voters are often not swayed by shows in their final seasons, particularly those that haven’t received recognition before. However, given that “Girls5Eva” and “The Other Two” secured writing nominations for their swan songs last year, there’s always a chance that these two could receive some attention as well. So, while it might be wise not to hold your breath, there’s no harm in hoping for a little longer.

St. Denis Medical (NBC)

Year after year, we tend to overestimate which network comedy might make it into the nominations. We were correct about ‘Abbott Elementary’, but for how many years have we anticipated that ‘Ghosts’ would take center stage? NBC’s last nomination in this category was 2020, when ‘The Good Place’ finally broke through on its third attempt. The last time two broadcast network comedies were nominated was 2017 (Modern Family and Black-ish); the last time two distinct broadcast networks received Comedy Series nods was 2015 (Modern Family and Parks and Rec). Currently, there’s a lot of positive buzz for ‘St. Denis Medical’. This could be an excellent year to make the case for a comedy that’s genuinely humorous. However, ‘Superstore’, the last Justin Spitzer sitcom to receive praise on NBC, remained in Emmy obscurity throughout its run. It will require a significant promotional push from NBC to get ‘St. Denis’ into the conversation.

2025-04-26 16:55