‘High Potential,’ ‘Matlock’ and ‘Happy’s Place’ Are Off to a Good Start. But What Does a Broadcast ‘Hit’ Rating Look Like Now?

As a longtime TV enthusiast who can remember when there were only three channels to choose from, I must say that this year’s Fall TV lineup has been nothing short of a breath of fresh air. After years of watching networks struggle with declining ratings and the rise of streaming services, it’s heartening to see traditional broadcasters like ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox finding their footing again.

One network executive gleefully announced to EbMaster recently, ‘Broadcast‘s back!’ This isn’t an exaggeration. After the turbulent collapse last year when Hollywood strikes caused an ad-libbed schedule, the networks are now operating at full capacity once more. Even with a rocky start that was complicated by elections, natural disasters, and a tumultuous media landscape, there’s reason for broadcast to walk with a spring in its step.

Television during fall seasons may not hold the same charm as before when only broadcast was available. However, with the shift in viewing habits due to the evolution of television consumption, prime-time series are demonstrating remarkable adaptability. As we delve into the complete data, there’s been an unexpected fascination towards the fresh lineup of scripted programs on the traditional Big Four networks.

ABC’s “High Potential” quickly became a massive success, gaining more viewers each week during its initial three episodes – a feat not achieved by any other broadcast show since Fox’s “Empire” in 2015. Meanwhile, CBS executives were so impressed with “Matlock” that they decided to renew it for Season 2 after just two episodes, while “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” also saw an increase in its viewership during its second week and has already been given a renewal. On NBC, Reba McEntire’s comedy “Happy’s Place” debuted strongly on Friday nights, which are typically overlooked by the networks. Lastly, Fox was pleased with the ratings for their new show from John Wells, “Rescue: HI-Surf,” during its first week.

As a movie enthusiast, I’ve come to realize that labeling any of these entries as a success can be a bit misleading, considering the overnight or live+same-day Nielsen ratings. Truth be told, initial ratings often fall flat, which isn’t surprising given the shift in television viewing habits. That first night total viewer number is merely the beginning; it sets off a long tail of subsequent viewings. As Steve Kern, NBC’s senior VP of content planning, acquisitions, and strategy, puts it, “These days, everything is a hit, and nothing is a hit.

As a movie enthusiast, I’d put it like this: When it comes to deciding the success of a new release, I always wait beyond the initial live and same-day viewings. These numbers serve as a launchpad, but they don’t tell the whole story. With an overflow of fresh content being churned out by all the big players every day and audiences consuming content on platforms like YouTube, it takes a few days or even a week to truly gauge the reception and performance.

To find an appropriate initial viewer count, it’s important to consider various factors: the time slot, competition, genre of the program, and the show that precedes it (known as the lead-in). For example, the NFL can attract a large audience for its lead-out, but this doesn’t necessarily mean the following show will be successful.

Another example is “Happy’s Place,” which pleasantly surprised NBC by opening on Friday, Oct. 18, with 4.03 million viewers and a 0.35 rating with adults 18-49. And in its time-slot premiere on Thursday, Oct. 17, “Matlock” averaged 6.38 million viewers (with a 0.36 in the demo), while the series launch of “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” landed 6.56 million viewers and 0.47 in the demo. (CBS is currently not a Nielsen subscriber, but those ratings are still readily available for competitors.)

Instead of regarding those figures as the fresh live-and-same-day benchmarks, let’s also factor in viewing through DVRs and VOD (still relevant), as well as performance on streaming platforms such as Hulu, Paramount+, and Peacock. Beginning this year, Nielsen offers expanded multi-platform data to its clients. Therefore, for the first time, networks can get a clearer understanding of how their competitors’ shows are performing over the ensuing weeks.

If your seven-day multi-platform viewership exceeds 9 or 10 million people, it suggests that you’ve struck a chord with a wide audience, be it “Happy’s Place” or “High Potential”. After 35 days, certain shows, such as ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” in its fourth season, can amass an average of 20 million viewers and garner ratings of 2, 3, or 4 in the demographic.

According to Ari Goldman, Senior Vice President of Content Strategy and Scheduling at ABC, live-plus-same-day ratings don’t accurately reflect the achievement of scripted programming. Instead, there’s a significant increase in viewership through playback, whether on DVR or streaming platforms like Hulu and their direct-to-consumer services. When you factor in multi-platform ratings, some shows are attracting audiences that would have been considered impressive even for a network in the 2000s. Goldman says these numbers would have been thought of as quite robust 15 years ago.

You might say this fall’s “High Potential” finds the networks in a “Happy’s Place.”

2024-10-31 23:17

‘High Potential,’ ‘Matlock’ and ‘Happy’s Place’ Are Off to a Good Start. But What Does a Broadcast ‘Hit’ Rating Look Like Now?

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