Ah, the merry crypto crowd peers expectantly toward the approaching FOMC meeting in May, as if awaiting the fate of the universe itself. There, amidst whispers and wagers, some fantasize that Jerome Powell and his fellow magicians at the Fed might slice interest rates, while shrewd traders snort skeptically, convinced the bank’s rulers will clutch their precious rates like a miser guarding his gold, regardless of the persistent pleas from the ever-persistent Donald Trump.
To Chop or Not to Chop? That Is the Question for May’s Fed Ball
The wise sages at CME FedWatch offer their oracles: a mere 9% chance that rates will be trimmed down to a cozy 400–425 basis points, while a dignified 91% wager that the gods of finance will keep them steady, locked between 425 and 450 bps — no surprises there, just a grand old plateau.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s clairvoyants nod in agreement, betting 90% on calm seas with rates unchanged. The more adventurous 9% dare to dream of a modest 25-point cut, and a rare 1.2% fantasize a daring 50-point leap downwards — one imagines these as the folks who buy lottery tickets and expect champagne on pay day.
Bank of America, ever the optimist, conjured a tale earlier this month predicting four Fed rate cuts this year, starting in May with three encore acts slated for July, September, and December. They sound like a financial version of a well-meaning but slightly deluded fortune teller at the fair.
Yet, one can hardly fault the cautious traders; after all, Powell himself recently intoned that no rate cuts shall pass until they fully understand the mysterious ways of Trump’s tariffs and their economic spellcasting.
In his solemn address, Powell foretold that these tariffs would most assuredly summon higher inflation — a fiery dragon nobody wishes to awaken lightly — hence the Fed’s reluctance to recklessly loosen the monetary reins.
On the other side of the battlefield, President Trump stands firm, demanding the Fed wield its rate-cutting sword without delay, warning of economic chills if the Fed dares resist.
Why the Fed’s Dancing Shoes Remain Untied
On the lively X platform, market oracle Kevin Green paints a grim portrait: prices rise, orders stumble, and general activity falters like a weary horse. Such a scene hardly inspires the Fed to reach for their rate-cutting scissors in May.
Kevin muses that the Fed will not trim rates without a dramatic fracture in the labor market — a proverbial financial apocalypse. June’s meeting may be similarly uneventful, as the clock runs down for evidence to justify any such monetary magic.
All eyes will be glued to the upcoming US GDP and PCE inflation scrolls, arriving April 30, whose cryptic numbers might yet sway the Fed’s hand one way or another.
Though the hope for a rate cut flickers faintly for now, should it materialize, Bitcoin and the whole merry band of crypto adventurers would certainly raise their glasses — more capital flowing would breathe new life into these risk-chasing revelers.
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2025-04-29 01:27