Don’t Crown Colbert an Emmy Winner Just Yet

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This week, Matt Belloni, the current go-to insider in Hollywood, forecasted a massive Emmy win for Stephen Colbert in his Puck newsletter. According to Belloni’s words, “Colbert, now a comedy martyr, is virtually guaranteed to outshine competitors The Daily Show and Jimmy Kimmel Live! in the three-way race for his first series Emmy for Late Show.

It’s not my place to question a star from The Studio, but the confidence with which Belloni made that statement seemed hasty. One might say that the Emmys’ stubbornness is their most prominent trait. Over the last decade, we’ve seen Julia Louis-Dreyfus win for Veep six years in a row, Game of Thrones winning Outstanding Drama for its final four seasons, followed by Succession triumphing for three consecutive years. The Amazing Race even won the Reality Competition award for the first ten years of its run. The Emmy voter is a creature of habit, and I believe it would take a significant shift to make them stray from their long-standing preference for The Daily Show – with 13 wins in 21 years – in the Outstanding Talk Series category.

Indeed, regarding Colbert, there’s been a significant change. Regarding the reasons for this alteration, opinions differ. Some claim that CBS decided to terminate “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” due to financial losses (even though it was the top-rated show in its time slot, reports suggest it was losing around $40 million annually). On the other hand, others argue that CBS’s parent company, Paramount, succumbed to pressure from the Trump administration to dismiss a persistent critic of the president in order to expedite Paramount’s merger with Skydance (which was recently approved by the FCC). The challenging financial situation in late-night television doesn’t necessarily debunk the first idea, but the timing of the termination – coming shortly after Paramount Global settled a defamation lawsuit with the Trump administration for $16 million and just a week after Colbert referred to the settlement amount as a “big, fat bribe” – has raised many eyebrows in Hollywood. Trump’s triumphant response to Colbert’s dismissal has led many industry insiders to believe that CBS’s decision was influenced by politics.

Caissie St. Onge, formerly of The Late Show and now a producer on Busy Philipps’s show Busy This Week, states that this (referring to something specific) functions as a loss leader for CBS, yet it is also an invaluable asset in their collection, according to her. It’s one of the factors that sets CBS Paramount apart, she implies, making it a wise investment to possess it.

As a movie critic reflecting on the latest changes in late-night television, I find myself reminiscing about the iconic “Late Show.” Former writer Django Gold eloquently puts it: “If they truly valued their brand identity, they would hold onto their flagship late-night program.” The presence of “The Late Show” on their network brings a wealth of unquantifiable advantages that they risk forfeiting. They won’t reap these unique benefits by replacing it with a budget-friendly clip show, no matter how appealing the financial reports may seem.

Trump’s Truth Social post gave off an impression of a triumphant dance, suggesting that the decision to cancel may have been influenced by executives eager to please the president. Regardless of whose call it was, this development has raised concerns for those in the TV industry who depend on their work for a living. According to one former late-night writer and current Emmy voter, “The current state of the industry feels different from the first Trump administration. It’s like a blatant reveal of wealthy figures saying, ‘Yes, these conditions are actually acceptable to us because they offer U.S. tax breaks and corporate consolidation.’

Since he announced his cancellation, Colbert has gained widespread popularity and recognition. His supporters span from critics of Trump, opponents of large media conglomerates, free speech advocates, members of the Writers Guild, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Colbert’s predecessor David Letterman, and anyone concerned about the future of late-night comedy, both short-term and long-term. Notably, many colleagues and friends from the entertainment industry have voiced their support for him. This week, Jon Stewart, John Oliver, Adam Sandler, Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Weird Al” Yankovic, and Triumph the Insult Comic Dog were among those seen expressing their backing on Colbert’s stage and in his audience. In a lunch with Paul Giamatti on Monday, Colbert was surrounded by supporters. He now symbolizes an industry that has been and continues to be under fire from Trump; this week alone, the administration criticized shows such as The Daily Show, Jimmy Kimmel Live, The View, and South Park.

When considering Emmy nominations, it doesn’t matter whether CBS’s choice was a budget cut before a corporate merger or an attempt to please the president for approval of the Skydance merger. If it appears to be a decision that might lead to job losses for hundreds of television professionals, as something Trump might approve, then let’s call it what it seems: potentially harmful to the industry. Emmy voters, you have a crucial choice to make when selecting your nominees.

In light of my longstanding observation that “The Daily Show” has dominated the Outstanding Talk Series category for over a decade, giving Colbert the Emmy would seemingly go against this established trend. With a ten-year winning streak from 2003 to 2012 and recent victories in the last two years, it’s safe to say that “The Daily Show” has been a consistent frontrunner. The only late-night show that surpasses its popularity is HBO’s “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,” which won for seven consecutive years before being moved to another category. In fact, there have been numerous instances where it seemed like sentiment might sway the Emmy in favor of other shows, but “The Daily Show” always came out on top. For instance, when Conan O’Brien faced a public backlash after his departure from “The Tonight Show,” “The Daily Show” won the Emmy. Similarly, when Conan returned with a new show to challenge NBC, “The Daily Show” again took the prize. Even during David Letterman’s final season and Conan’s nomination after retiring, “Last Week Tonight” emerged victorious. In essence, a traditional late-night talk show hasn’t won the Emmy in over two decades.

I won’t predict that we’ll definitely defeat The Daily Show yet, as the voting for winners doesn’t start until August 18, which is over three weeks away. The news environment changes quickly these days, and it’s hard to foresee what challenges might arise before then. It’s also possible that The Late Show won’t be the only late-night program to be canceled this summer.

As a devoted movie enthusiast, I must admit that Colbert has earned a significant amount of admiration within the industry. Every person I conversed with for this story portrayed him as an upstanding individual. Even Jon Stewart, who’s been in the same circle at Comedy Central, has consistently advocated for his fellow comedian, which almost feels like a seal of approval. In fact, if the growing wave of support for Colbert continues, it might bode well for the Apple TV+ series, “Hacks”.

After “Hacks” was snubbed by The Studio in the nomination count, all the Emmy momentum has been with the newcomer. But after a week’s worth of social media buzz surrounding that clip of Deborah Vance quitting her late-night show rather than compromise her principles, I can’t help but suspect that “Hacks” might just secure the Best Comedy award on Emmys night once again.

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2025-07-26 00:56